Global Oil Shock: Crude Hits $100 as Iran Threatens Hormuz Closure, Fuel Price Fears Rise in Nigeria

Rising tensions in the Middle East have pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, fueling concerns that Nigerians may continue paying high prices for petrol and diesel.

The surge follows escalating hostilities involving the United States and Israel against Iran. Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, declared that the strategic Strait of Hormuz would remain effectively closed as a geopolitical pressure tool.

Earlier hopes for relief emerged after crude prices fell to $92 per barrel, and both Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited announced reductions in petrol prices earlier in the week.

However, renewed geopolitical tensions reversed the trend, pushing crude prices between $96 and $117 per barrel, depending on grade.

Across Nigeria, petrol prices remain around N1,200 per litre or higher, despite the earlier reductions.

Depot price trends across Nigeria

Market checks showed depot operators maintained elevated prices across major oil hubs.

In Lagos, major depots sold petrol between N1,175 and N1,200 per litre.
Warri depots recorded prices around N1,200 to N1,205 per litre, while Port Harcourt depots sold between N1,150 and N1,220 per litre.
In Calabar, prices ranged from N1,195 to N1,205 per litre.

Public frustration grows

Transport operators and commuters expressed frustration, urging the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority to ensure marketers quickly reflect price reductions.

One commuter told Vanguard:

“The operators, especially depot owners are always fast to adjust upward prices in their favour. However, they always find it difficult to adjust downward in favour of consumers.”

NNPC lowers pump price

Amid the turmoil, NNPC Limited reduced petrol prices at its filling stations to N1,130 per litre in Lagos and N1,165 per litre in Abuja, representing reductions of N100 and N95 respectively.

The revised prices were observed at NNPC stations in Lagos and Abuja.

Downstream sector still evolving

Petroleum economist Wumi Iledare explained that current price swings reflect a broader transition in Nigeria’s oil sector.

“Volatility in petrol prices today reflects a market in transition—from import dependence and administrative pricing to domestic refining and market discovery.”

He said pricing decisions are influenced not only by current supply conditions but also by expectations about future costs and currency dynamics.

Conflict threatens global supply

Energy infrastructure across the Gulf has come under attack, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of global crude normally passes, has nearly halted.

The International Energy Agency warned that the conflict is causing:

“the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.”

Despite a decision by IEA member countries to release 400 million barrels of oil from reserves, analysts say the measure is insufficient to offset supply losses caused by the conflict.

Nigeria misses oil output target

Data from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries shows Nigeria’s crude production fell to 1.314 million barrels per day in February, below both its 1.5 million bpd OPEC quota and the 1.84 million bpd national budget target.

Experts say the country may earn more revenue from higher prices, but ordinary citizens could face continued hardship from rising fuel and commodity costs.

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