GLOBOCAN warns global cancer cases could hit 34 million by 2050

Global cancer cases could surge to 34 million annually by 2050, representing a 67 per cent increase from 2024, while deaths from the disease could approach 17.5 million, according to new estimates from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC).

The figures are contained in the GLOBOCAN 2024 report, which found that the world recorded an estimated 20.6 million new cancer cases and 9.8 million cancer deaths in 2024.

IARC, the World Health Organisation’s specialised cancer agency, said the projected increase in cases would be accompanied by an almost 80 per cent rise in cancer deaths if current trends continue.

The estimates, released as IARC celebrates its 60th anniversary, examine cancer incidence and mortality across different countries, regions, age groups and sexes.

Men accounted for 10.6 million of the 20.6 million new cases in 2024, while women recorded 10 million. Of the 9.8 million cancer deaths, 56 per cent occurred among men and 44 per cent among women.

Freddie Bray, Head of IARC’s Cancer Surveillance Branch, said the figures demonstrated the heavier impact of cancer on men.

“One in nine men and one in 13 women die from cancer. This reflects the variation in cancer types between men and women and the generally poorer prognosis of cancers affecting men,” he said.

The global figures also mask substantial differences between countries. IARC said population size, ageing, exposure to cancer risk factors and unequal access to prevention and healthcare all contribute to the geographical disparities.

China alone accounts for approximately one-quarter of cancer cases and deaths worldwide. Europe, meanwhile, has just 9.2 per cent of the global population but records more than one-fifth of global cancer cases.

Cancer incidence rates, when standardised, can vary threefold between countries, while mortality rates can differ by as much as five times.

Australia and Denmark were among countries with the highest incidence rates, while some of the lowest rates were recorded in parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Eastern Europe and Melanesia had some of the highest mortality rates.

Specific countries also recorded particularly high rates of certain cancers, including liver cancer in Mongolia and cervical cancer in Zimbabwe.

Bray said such variations reflected differences in both cancer risk and the ability of health systems to detect and treat the disease early.

“To simply maintain current numbers of cases and deaths, we would need a 2 percent decline in both incidence and mortality every year – and we are nowhere near that,” he warned.

Lung cancer remains the leading cancer globally for both new cases and deaths. It is the leading cause of cancer death in 89 countries, especially among men.

Breast cancer remains one of the world’s most frequently diagnosed cancers. Excluding China, it is the most commonly diagnosed cancer across all Human Development Index levels. It is also the most frequently diagnosed cancer among women in 164 countries and the leading cause of cancer death among women in 122 countries.

Among men, prostate cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer in 123 countries, with IARC linking part of the trend to increased diagnostic testing.

The agency said cancer patterns are increasingly being shaped by ageing, economic development, sex and infections. In sub-Saharan Africa, breast and cervical cancers account for more than half of cancers affecting women, while infection-related cancers make up about 80 per cent of preventable cancers in the region.

IARC warned that continued tobacco use, ageing populations and inequalities in cancer prevention and treatment could further worsen the situation.

While some high-income countries have recorded declining cancer mortality due to prevention, earlier diagnosis and advances in treatment, incidence continues to rise in most parts of the world.

Another major concern highlighted by the report is the lack of reliable cancer data. Only one-third of countries currently provide high-quality cancer incidence data, while reliable mortality information is available from just one-quarter.

IARC said the data gaps make it difficult for governments to measure the scale of the problem, plan healthcare services, distribute resources and evaluate cancer-control measures.

The Union for International Cancer Control said the latest estimates should prompt governments to strengthen national cancer-control plans and increase investment in prevention, screening, early detection, diagnosis and treatment.

It said about half of cancer deaths are considered avoidable through established interventions, including tobacco control, vaccination, screening and fair access to effective treatment.

The WHO’s Global Status Report on Cancer 2026, which also draws on GLOBOCAN 2024 data, similarly found that progress against cancer remains uneven globally.

The report highlighted continuing gaps in prevention, diagnosis and treatment, alongside health-system limitations that delay care and weaknesses in cancer surveillance. It also examined the financial hardship caused by cancer and the consequences of late diagnosis.

With global cancer cases and deaths projected to rise sharply, the latest estimates underline the urgent need for countries to strengthen cancer prevention, early detection, treatment and data systems.

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