High Stakes Shaping 2027 Presidential Race -By IfeanyiChukwu Afuba

Nigeria’s elections, especially of the presidential brand, is only marginally a function of performance, competence or legitimacy. It’s a fierce struggle either of ascendancy or for supremacy. Between the APC and the motley of opposition parties bracing for the January 2027 presidential poll, there is hardly any space for altruistic motives. What is currently playing out in the political field is contest for power shaped in varying degrees by personal ambition; group solidarity, geo – ethnic competition, civic engagement as well as religious/ideological loyalties.

When general Yakubu Gowon was overthrown as Head of State, July 29, 1975, it was not because life was hard for Nigerians. On the contrary, Nigeria was a Paradise at the time. The naira was almost twice the dollar in value, with one dollar exchanging for sixty-five kobo. Food was cheap. Workers received car and housing loans for the asking. The operation against Gowon revolved around power interests. The north central state – born general was seen to be personalising the throne by sitting tight for nine years. Others who invested in the July 1966 conspiracy that brought him to power wanted a piece of the benefits too.

By the logic of wars being politics by other means, we are reminded that coups are also politics by other means. And while socio – economic discontent may have existed by December 1983, the toppling of Shehu Shagari government put paid to the hopes of Alex Ekwueme’s ascent as President in 1987. Aside it’s barracks reflexes and ethnic bias, the Buhari junta showed seriousness in bringing sanity back to government. But in continued run of presidential obsession, Buhari’s regime was overthrown by the Ibrahim Babangida faction of the military political party just after twenty months. And for good measure, the new military ruler took the laundering title of President!

The structure, character and direction of Nigeria’s government and politics has not changed. It would therefore be unrealistic to expect a shift in the determination and management of the 2027 presidential election. In 2023, Bola Ahmed Tinubu laid claim to the presidency with the declaration, emilokan (it’s my turn). The relay race concept is widely shared by Nigeria’s political elite. It’s emphasis is on power calculus rather than governance. With focus on political ambition, the vacuity of regular party defections is lost on the political class. The scandal of political promiscuity, of constant shuttling from one party to another which should provoke sobriety and remorse, is loudly defended as tactics; strategy,; being one step ahead. And the same poverty of leadership makes it possible for the APC, with it’s woeful performance, to join the race with straight face and indeed, be the front runner in the 2027 presidential contest.

For the present administration, increased foreign investment, favourable trade deals, economic policy reforms, ongoing infrastructure projects, improved foreign exchange reserve and federation account allocation to States are evidence of some major achievements. The critical question however, is how have these impacted on the lives of Nigerians? High – sounding statistics without corresponding influence in the socio – economic wellbeing of Nigerians is nothing to cheer about. The low – purchasing power of the naira contradicts claims of economic successes. Add to that the biting cost of fuel and unavailable electricity and the suffering that millions of Nigerians currently endure becomes obvious. But in spite of this damning report card, the APC with Tinubu as candidate, the ruling party will be going into the election battle from a position of strength.

The APC’s capacity will not be entirely because of the resources it controls. Part of the strength of Tinubu’s APC ticket will come from the inability of the opposition to present a united front. It’s settled electoral empiricism that opposition political parties stand the best chance against incumbents with a common candidate.
How did the much – celebrated opposition to the Bola Tinubu presidency walk straight into the tight corner that leaves it weakened against the APC in the 2027 presidential poll? In geographical spread, leadership composition, civic and social appeal, the ADC was a great force with the potential of winning the next presidential election. Until the breakaway by Mr Peter Obi and Dr Rabiu Kwankwaso into the National Democratic Congress (NDC). Similarly, Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde’s diversion to the Allied Peoples Movement (APM), indicates the lack of faith in higher opposition agenda. With or without former President, Goodluck Jonathan clinching the PDP ticket, the numbers afforded by an opposition umbrella is already dispersed in multi candidates. The realisation that leading opposition actors are more concerned with standing as presidential candidates than a national rescue project is sobering. Inevitably, the question arises, where does patriotism to serve end, and where does desperation for office, for historical limelight begin?

Obviously, the failed expectation about ADC as the single opposition platform for the 2027 poll centred on the issue of presidential candidate. But it does not take an oracle to project that where there are contending perspectives on the power theme, the fairest approach to resolving the conflicting interests would be an open internal contest. An inclusive and transparent primaries offered the equitable means of determining the coalition’s flagbearer. Insistence on preferential conditions by any bloc comes across as both divisive and insensitive to the overriding quest for regime change. Likewise, the identification of litigations in ADC as justification for abandoning the coalition does not hold water. What is the guarantee that the new political party being defected to will not be caught up in factional litigations tomorrow? You don’t solve a problem by running away from it. Taking the democracy struggle to logical conclusion promises greater benefit to the country than the prospect of individual candidacy in the election. Given his ranking in the ruling party, Hope Uzodimma’s caution that Nigeria’s democracy is at risk without strong opposition, _The Punch_ , May 23, 2026, shows that even the ruling council realise there are limits to the plot against the opposition.

The revelation from the test of the opposition, however, is the great sportsmanship of Chibuike Amaechi. The former Rivers State governor has demonstrated steadfastness in his presidential mission. He stayed on in the APC in 2023 to put up a good fight, coming second in the primaries. His decision not to take a walk from the ADC, in spite of differences, shows that he is focused on the larger picture. Emphatic that he is not interested in the vice presidency, Amaechi’s vote for the collective approach, kindles hope for progressive politics. His refusal to be intimidated by the Atiku factor is significant but even more impressive is the consistency of political engagement. A close contest for ticket of the mainstream ADC looms between Amaechi and Atiku Abubakar. Although the spotlight – influenced path of multi opposition candidates dented the original idea behind the ADC, it is still the strongest opposition party.

But in terms of ultimate electoral victory, Atiku and Goodluck Jonathan have the brightest chances. If Jonathan does not run, Atiku’s candidature becomes stronger. On the other hand, if Amaechi springs the upset of defeating Atiku in the primaries,Tinubu will coast home to victory easily. The foremost factor at play here is the dominant political perception in the north. This translates to the orientation that the north will never believe the vow that a Peter Obi, Chibuike Amaechi or Seyi Makinde will do only one term of office, for power to return to the north eight years after Buhari. A Jonathan candidacy will be attractive to the north because he is statutorily limited to a term of four years. There is no such iron – cast guarantee in respect of any other opposition contender from the south. This condition is one reason Tinubu’s aspiration is likely to be considered favourably in the core north irrespective of the misgivings about his government’s underperformance. Contrastingly, an Atiku ticket will elicit much of the popular vote in the muslim north, leaving Tinubu’s APC with the stock pliable to incumbency means. Southern votes are almost sure to be sharply divided along regional lines between Tinubu, Obi, a Jonathan and Amaechi. Not much has changed since Okwudiba Nnoli’s 1981 book, _Ethnic Politics _in Nigeria_ . The scenario again presents the north with the decisive votes.

Obi’s NDC stands as much chance as Jonathan to take majority of the Christian north vote. His presumed running mate, Rabiu Kwankwaso’s appeal in the north has so far been restricted to half of Kano State. MKO Abiola would have described him as over – concentrated in Kano. Kwankwaso in 2013 opposed Obi’s advocacy for a sixth state for the southeast on the argument that the region’s population was small. It’s interesting that the same Kwankwaso who recently bragged about his doctoral and government experience superiority over Obi is now willing to be his running mate. While the claim of working for the APC is doubtful, his interest in the 2027 poll may not go beyond positioning for Igbo votes in 2031. Obi’s NDC will win the chunk of votes in the southeast but it will not be with the 2023 overwhelming margin. Works Minister, Dave Umahi, who holds the most consequential portfolio by the region is working hard to get a slice of the votes for his principal. The combination of APC governors, Soludo’s APGA and Forum of Former Southeast Governors who are all rooting for Tinubu can only be dismissed as irrelevant by political neophytes. Despite fielding an unpopular candidate in the November 2025, Anambra governorship election, the APC polled up to one hundred thousand votes. Obi is a first class presidential candidate but there are other intervening variables. His card of a single term of office is not one embraced by some Igbo leaders. The proposal sounds apologetic to hardliners who insist Igbos have full right to the presidency as other Nigerians. But even after the votes have been cast, Nigerians must still cope with the roles of the INEC and the judiciary. Was it not former president, Olusegun Obasanjo of the third term controversy, who told us that contest for presidential power is do or die affair?

Afuba is of Governance & Development Forge, Awka.