Nigeria Falls Short of OPEC Target as Output Rises, Eyes 3mbpd by 2030

Nigeria’s crude oil production recorded a modest increase in March 2026 but still fell below its assigned quota, according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

OPEC data shows output rose to 1.38 million barrels per day (bpd) from 1.31 million bpd in February, based on direct communication with Nigerian officials.

Meanwhile, secondary sources estimated production at 1.46 million bpd in March, up from 1.44 million bpd the previous month.

Despite the gains, production remained below the OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd and Nigeria’s budget benchmark of 1.84 million bpd, which includes condensate.

Even so, Nigeria maintained its position as Africa’s largest oil producer, ahead of Libya’s 1.30 million bpd output.

Amid the shortfall, industry stakeholders are pushing for a long-term expansion strategy.

At the Oloibiri Lecture Series in Abuja, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, expressed confidence that Nigeria can reach three million bpd by 2030.

She said the target builds on an interim goal of two million bpd by 2027 and hinges on regulatory reforms, increased investment, and digitalisation.

Eyesan highlighted the role of the Petroleum Industry Act in restoring investor confidence through transparency and performance-driven regulation.

She also cited major upstream projects, including Bonga North, Ubeta, and HI developments, which have collectively attracted over $10 billion in investments.

“Digital transformation… will play a critical role in reducing costs, minimising downtime, and boosting output,” she said.

She further stressed that improved oil recovery and new performance-based frameworks would drive efficiency and maximise production potential.

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