The Wisdom of The Crowds and Uncertainty Avoidance -By Tony Agbonasevbaefe

The building of an egalitarian society is a multifaceted process, which is, succinctly, a synergy between effective leadership and an informed followership. The adherence to the rule of law, functional and independent institutions are the other necessary variables that cannot be overlooked.

A few months ago, the global media was inundated with the Al Jazeera interview spectacle by Daniel Bwala, Special Adviser to Nigeria President on Media and Policy Communication.  The ‘No-holds-bar’ interview conducted by fiery Mehdi Hassan drew widespread comments and condemnation both within and outside the country.  It brought once more to the fore issues concerning morality, integrity and honesty. It highlighted the depth of unbridled sycophancy which has eaten deep into the fabric of our body polity.

Some will say it is politics, but therein is the actual red flag. Politics should not mean telling half-truths or outright lying to get political or personal advantage. It shouldn’t be a slot bare-faced deception to score cheap points. There is no doubt that propaganda is a critical tool in the hands of ‘workers’ in the political farm. Politicians use it to plough and plant seeds to deceive the public, but they sing a different tune once they get into power.

Analysts have described most politicians as the proverbial Wolf who promised a flock of Sheep he would transform into a vegetarian if elected to power in the animal kingdom. The sheep can only believe the Wolf at their own peril. The Wolf `ain’t gonna` (in my American accent) change from a carnivore to a herbivore. Never.

Just like Daniel Bwala, another double-minded character within our ecosystem is Reno Omokri. The internet doesn’t forgive. Say it, and it is saved forever. Mr Reno, as hard as he has tried to, has not been able to extricate himself from the uncouth and unprintable names he called the incumbent Nigerian President previously during the election campaigns. The most captivating clip is the one where famed Channels TV anchor, Seun Okinbaloye, asked Reno if he could work for the President in future. It would be uncharacteristic of me to put Reno’s response in print here.

Along the same tangent of thought is the worrying admittance by former Ekiti State Governor, Kayode Fayemi, that politicians knew former President Goodluck Jonathan was doing the right thing in 2012 when he attempted to deregulate the downstream sector of the nation’s oil sector.  Fayemi alluded to the derailment of that policy for political gains during the GEJ era as unpatriotic. Politics and governance are supposed to be tools for the enhancement of the public good and not the other way round. That policy somersault was a precursor for the dire situation in that sector today. What a missed opportunity for forward movement that was sacrificed on the altar of greedy pecuniary political interests.

The Uncertainty Avoidance Index (UAI) is one of the world-renowned Social Psychologist, Geert Hofstede’s cultural dimensions. It measures how much a society feels threatened by ambiguity, uncertainty, and the unknown. It is a core cultural framework that evaluates how different populations handle the unknown. It provides actionable insights into why business practices, communication styles, and risk tolerance vary internationally.

In nation-building, UAI shapes how institutions, laws, and policies are designed and accepted. Nigeria has a UAI score of 55 out of 100 on the Hofstede scale. That puts the country in a moderate-to-high range. To put it in context, the U.K has a UAI score of 35 (low), the USA 46 (low-moderate), Germany 65 (high), and Japan 92 (very high). Two of the critical axes within this domain are trust and institutions. With a UAI of 55 for Nigeria, there is anxiety about the unknown. This anxiety fuels an innate demand for strong institutions and also makes people sceptical of institutions that seem inconsistent. For nation-building, consistency matters more than speed.

The bottom line for Nigeria is that the country is not as rule-bound as Japan or as flexible as the USA. To build institutions that stick and endure, there must be clear written rules that are communicated simply. All citizens must obey these rules, and there must not be sacred cows.  The country must avoid leaving too much to official discretion without oversight. This breeds corruption and malfeasance. Reforms should be framed to reduce risk and uncertainty for citizens and businesses. Also, space must be allowed for entrepreneurship, which should be paired with predictable regulatory environments.

The political system should be immune to ‘moneybags’. The supremacy of political parties as vehicular instruments of leadership needs to be restructured. Ownership of political parties has to be with the people. The current technology-based membership system should be further enhanced to a level where each member is able to chip in monthly dues electronically, as is obtained in other climes. That way, political parties can put forward candidates for elections and sponsor campaigns from the party’s purse. Donors can be sourced, but would have ceilings and such inputs scrutinised by the electoral commission. Any infractions must be axed, and those found culpable face the music.

Similarly, a rejig/downward review of recurrent expenditures on elected/appointed officials has to happen. The present bogus allowances for houses, cars, furniture and other sundries are not sustainable. It is a drain on our common patrimony. Those wishing to serve in government must do so purely for service and not for the accumulation of quick money.

The present situation, where men and women without craft or industry become stupendously wealthy overnight after winning elective political offices, is antithetical to the growth of society. Legislative functions should, at best, be sitting-based or pro bono. The huge cost of governance at the federal, state and local council levels has to come down. Bogus, outrageous pension payments to elected government officials at the end of their 4 or 8-year tenure are wasteful. Those who present themselves for public office must understand it is a call to service. They are there to serve and not to be served. It is a democracy, not a monarchy.

Government at all levels – federal, state and local councils should work collaboratively to make life meaningful for the ordinary citizens. The latter should not just survive but also live life to the full. Enjoyment of the God-given resources in the land should not just be for a few, but for the majority. Realistic safety nets must be provided for the vulnerable in our society. People should not be hung out there in the sun and left on their own to dry up. No Nigerian is in any way more Nigerian than another. We are all stakeholders and rightly so. The weaponisation of poverty in the name of palliatives or empowerment should end. Quite a number of those activities are dehumanising and demeaning.

All said and done, and in the grand scheme of things, the primary duty of government is the security and welfare of its people. These are ingrained in the letters and spirit of the Constitution. The country cannot develop if the lives of the people are not secured. It is therefore a given that necessary measures be put in place to arrest the situation using both kinetic and non-kinetic means. All those taking human lives should desist, as no human being has the right to take the life of another. Nothing compares to the sanctity of a human life. It is a divine gift from the Almighty God.

The theory of the “wisdom of the crowd” originates from an experiment by British statistician Sir Francis Galton, and popularised by journalist James Surowiecki in his 2004 book, The Wisdom of Crowds.  The theory states that the collective opinion of a diverse, independent group of individuals is often more accurate, intelligent, and insightful than the decisions of any single expert or small group. Although not the be-all, end-all, the theory encapsulates the essential need for looking out for one another and not just being self-conceited. Each one has a role to play in building a just and egalitarian society. The current axiom of `me, myself and I` permeating our ecosystem can only lead to doomsday.

For the political class/elites, the time is now for you all to get out of your glass houses, come to terms with the realities of those you are meant to be leading. Many of you are living in a bubble, alienated and isolated from your people. Also, let the political talks/debates centre around your plans for education, healthcare, security, power generation/electricity supply, agriculture, technology, artificial intelligence, and other critical sectors. All the media-hype name calling/abuse are unnecessary distractions from the core issues affecting the people. Political parties must roll out clearly defined manifestos that mirror their ideology. Did you cringe when you read the word, ideology? My sincere apologies.

As for the followers, it is time for a mindset reset. You cannot keep doing the same thing and expect a different outcome. The time is now for you to stand firm, hold leaders (rulers if you like) accountable at the federal, state and local government levels. Another general election beckons, so get down to work to vote and be voted for. `Our vote will not count`is often the maxim; says who? If votes do not count, politicians would not be doing all they can to solicit votes, even going to the extreme of buying votes. Citizens must play their part. Together we can set the agenda.

Tony Agbons is Lead, Institute of Governance and Leadership