Fuel Import Policy Row Deepens as Experts Clash With World Bank on Nigeria’s Energy Direction

Nigeria’s energy policy debate has intensified after experts pushed back against recommendations from the World Bank urging greater fuel importation and downstream liberalisation, warning that such measures could undermine domestic refining gains.

During a televised discussion, energy economist Ken Ife said the advice conflicts with Nigeria’s long-term strategy for energy independence and violates provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act.

“You cannot come to a country… and then advise it to reverse course and return to fuel importation,” he said, arguing that such a move would weaken local value addition efforts.

He stressed that domestic refining must remain the priority under existing law and warned that a return to imports would increase exposure to global market volatility and foreign exchange strain.

“Advising Nigeria to abandon that path is… a clear violation of the PIA,” he added.

Ife also questioned the empirical basis of the recommendation, saying it appeared inconsistent with the broader analysis in the World Bank’s Nigeria Development Update.

Another analyst, Kelvin Emmanuel, also rejected the proposal, claiming the report had been withdrawn from the World Bank’s website.

“The World Bank has retracted the report,” he said.

He argued that imported petrol cannot currently be cheaper than local supply due to freight and insurance costs.

“There is no marketer today that can land petrol into Nigeria at less than N1,759 per litre,” he said.

Emmanuel added that global crude pricing, influenced by geopolitical tensions, has significantly altered fuel economics.

“Dated Brent is trading at about $144 per barrel,” he explained.

He further suggested that any lower-priced imports would likely involve compromised fuel standards.

“The only way imported petrol can appear cheaper is if standards are compromised,” he said.

Emmanuel maintained that Nigeria’s domestic petrol prices remain relatively lower than in neighbouring countries and blamed price volatility on weak enforcement of supply obligations.

“If local refiners receive crude supply as stipulated by law, prices will stabilise,” he said.

He also criticised proposals for borrowing-funded social safety nets, arguing that such spending should be grant-based rather than debt-financed.

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