Mr. Governor, You Have Lost Some Battles, And You Are Losing The War -By John Oyebanji

By every account of history and strategy, a general who misreads the terrain, underestimates his adversaries, and overestimates his alliances is already halfway to defeat. Sadly, Governor Ademola Adeleke appears to be walking this path, with music in his steps, but missteps all the same.

When I last put pen to paper concerning the Governor’s political travails, I thought it had told its last story, laid it down, perhaps off the edge of a quiet cliff, where silence could speak louder than my ink. For that sake, I resolved to go silent, to watch from the gallery as events unfolded. But, Osun States, my beloved homeland, continues to occupy the front page of the national consciousness, not for glory, not for innovation, not for any gallant tale of governance, but for political confusion, missteps, and shame. In the face of this, silence has become complicity.

It is either the stubborn love for my state or a nagging concern for the political soul of its chief steward, a once-hopeful captain who now steers a fragile vessel into stormy waters without a compass or conviction, that calls me back. Whatever it is, I’m compelled once more.

The storm began to swirl with the dramatic defection of Rep. Oluwole Oke, who represents Oriade/Ibokun Federal Constituency. After a protracted flirtation with the media, he formally switched allegiance from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC). In the aftermath, he was branded everything from traitor to Judas Iscariot by media battalions of the Governor, those ever-eager to set fires for others to extinguish. They descended on him like wolves at twilight. He was called names best left in the unspoken shadows. He was accused of betrayal, opportunism, even treason against the house that once bore his political name.

But irony, that old and faithful handmaid if history, has returned, bearing a smirk.

Not long after, in a show of face-saving solidarity, the remaining members of the Osun Caucus in the National Assembly (minus the newly defected Oke) staged a visit to the Governor and released a communiqué reaffirming their loyalty to the Governor and the PDP. They called it unity, some called it damage control, others whispered “desperation”, but time, as always, has peeled back the performance. What we see now is a calculated exodus of lawmakers toward the APC, a movement made of whatever I don’t know. Of the three senators Osun sent to the National Assembly, two now wear APC colours. Of the nine House members, three have crossed over, all, it appears, in search of political shelter. The Governor’s coalition, once described as “formidable,” is quietly dissolving like mist before the morning sun, with more, they say, are queuing silently behind the curtain, waiting for the right moment to cast off old colours and don new ones.

But I will save a deeper dissection of the failed defection strategy for another day.

The present embarrassment, and perhaps the most regrettable of all, was the communiqué issued after the Osun PDP Leadership Caucus meeting, a document affirming continued PDP loyalty while shamelessly pledging support for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election in 2027. Let us not mince words, it was not tact, it was timidity. It was not a strategy, it is a political surrender, cloaked in the garb of diplomacy. It is a document that history may remember, not for its boldness, but for its betrayal. A paradox that would amuse Machiavelli and embarrass Awolowo.

In the immortal words of Wole Soyinka, “the man dies in all who keep silent in the face of tyranny”, but in this case, the man is not only silent, he is genuflecting.

What could provoke such cowardly genuflection? Why does the Governor of Osun State, elected under a banner of resistance and renewal, now tremble so at the thought of re-election? Why this feverish dance around the President’s shadow? Why the public fawning? Is it the fear of rejection? Or the realization that the path forward under PDP’s platform is now riddled with thorns and uncertainty? The rejection of his veiled attempt to defect has been loud and humiliating, the Osun APC slammed the door before his knuckles even grazed it. They refused to roll a welcome mat, but left out in the cold, flowers in hand, knocking on a door that would not open.

And yet, rather than return to base, reassess, and strategize, the Governor now romanticizes the same house that refused him entry.

And here’s the tragedy, President Tinubu has no political love to spare. Loyalty, for him, is built in blood, forged over decades, and tested through fire. Mr. Governor, do you believe you will be favoured over his tried and tested allies? Are you offering your hand in friendship to a man already sharpening the sword for your removal?

In what could only be described as a miscalculation of tragic proportions, the safest bet, the African Democratic Congress (ADC), was discarded. The desperation to impress prospective allies by dragging Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola through the mud, betraying a potential partner in hopes of earning the respect of those who never intended to accept you, is equally a tragically misguided attempt. It was an act of political naïveté, dressed as strategy.

The African Democratic Congress (ADC) might have offered a clean slate, a chance at forging a fresh narrative. But now, even that door seems distant, fogged by miscalculations and misadvised gambits.

So here we are. Should you contest your re-election under the PDP? It is a question only your courage, or lack of it, will answer. But why does your desperate support for Tinubu’s 2027 ambition eclipse the urgent need to secure your 2026 mandate? Has no one told you that this chessboard is already arranged, and you are a pawn being moved to the corner? What is the price of your continued attempts to appease a President whose political gods have long made their sacrifices and chosen their priests?

History does not favour hesitant warriors. From Thermopylae to Ibadan, from Churchill to Awolowo, the lesson remains: “He who fights and runs away lives to fight another day, but he who hesitates before battle may never return from the field.”

Mr. Governor, wars are not lost in a single defeat, but through a thousand ignored warnings. You have lost battles, and you are fast losing the war. But not all is lost. There is still time to regroup, rearm, and reclaim what is slipping through your fingers. The people who once danced in your name can still sing for you, but not if you continue to cower in indecision and play politics without backbone. Rediscover the dignity that once made them dance when your name was called, not because you were the “Dancing Senator/Governor”, but because you embodies their hopes.

Think like a warrior, act like a hero. History is not kind to those who cower on the battlefield, but it has always had a place, often a redemptive one, for those who, even at the 11th hour, stood up, faced their failures, and chose to fight the right way. For you are on a battlefield, and history will not remember dancers, it remembers defenders.

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John Oyebanji is a Public Affairs Analyst, Media/PR Specialist, Educational Administrator, and Clergy, among many other things he represents. He writes from Modakeke, Osun State, and can be reached via +2349032201075, thejohnoyebanji@gmail.com