Tinubu’s Nigeria: The Silent Rise of a One-Party State and Why It Must Be Stopped -By Jeff Okoroafor

Nigeria is slipping into authoritarianism. Under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is tightening its grip on power, systematically dismantling opposition, and tilting the democratic playing field in its favour. What we are witnessing is not just political dominance – it is the slow death of multi-party democracy. And if left unchecked, it will plunge Nigeria into an era of unchecked corruption, repression, and governance failure.

This is not speculation. It is happening now.

Bola Ahmed Tinubu did not become president by accident. A master political strategist as his sycophantic loyalists and fans call him, he spent decades building alliances, co-opting rivals, and ensuring that key institutions – INEC, the judiciary, security agencies – were stacked with loyalists. Since his controversial victory in 2023, the signs of a one-party state have become undeniable:

1. The Opposition is Being Crushed – The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), once a formidable force, is now a shadow of itself, gutted by defections and internal sabotage. Smaller parties are either absorbed or rendered irrelevant. Without a strong opposition, democracy becomes a sham.

2. Judicial Coups Replace Elections – How many opposition governors have been removed by questionable court rulings? From Kano to Plateau, the judiciary has become a weapon for the ruling party, overturning the will of voters with alarming frequency.

3. Institutions Serve the Ruling Party, Not the People – INEC’s failures in 2023 were not mere incompetence; they were design. Security agencies harass opposition figures while turning a blind eye to APC’s excesses. The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) targets enemies of the government, not corrupt officials.

4. Dissent is Being Criminalized – Protesters are arrested. Critics are silenced. Media houses face intimidation. This is not democracy; it is autocracy in disguise.

Those who argue that a dominant ruling party brings stability are either naive or complicit. History proves otherwise.

Corruption Will Thrive Without Checks

Nigeria is already one of the most corrupt nations on earth. Imagine what happens when no opposition exists to expose theft. Under one-party rule, looting becomes risk-free.

Governance Will Collapse

Competition keeps leaders accountable. Remove it, and incompetence flourishes. Look at Lagos—Tinubu’s stronghold—where one-family rule has led to inflated contracts, failing infrastructure, and unchecked power. Now imagine that on a national scale.

Nigeria’s Fragile Unity Will Crack

A country with over 250 ethnic groups cannot survive under a system that sidelines dissent. The Niger Delta, the Southeast, the Middle Belt—regions already marginalized—will revolt. A one-party state does not unite; it fractures.

The Military Could Return

When democracy fails, soldiers step in. If Tinubu’s APC turns Nigeria into a de facto dictatorship, the risk of another coup—whether by khaki-clad soldiers or “democratic” strongmen—becomes real.

Africa’s Cautionary Tales: Nigeria is Following a Dangerous Script

• Zimbabwe: Mugabe’s ZANU-PF turned Africa’s breadbasket into a failed state.

• Cameroon: Biya’s 40-year rule brought stagnation and civil war.

• South Africa: The ANC’s unchecked power led to state capture and economic decline.

Nigeria is not immune. The APC’s playbook—weaken opposition, control courts, muzzle critics—is straight out of the authoritarian handbook.

Nigeria still has a chance to reverse course, but only if citizens and institutions act now. As a matter of urgency, we must:

1. Rebuild the Opposition – PDP, Labour Party, and others must stop infighting and form a united front.

2. Protect the Judiciary – Judges must resist political pressure or face mass protests.

3. Demand Electoral Reform – INEC must be overhauled before 2027. Electronic voting, transparent results, and severe punishment for rigging are non-negotiable.

4. Mobilize Civil Society – The media, activists, and ordinary Nigerians must resist intimidation. Silence means surrender.

Nigeria is at a crossroads. Bola Tinubu may not be a dictator, but his actions are pushing Nigeria toward dictatorship. A country that survived military rule must not fall to civilian autocracy. The time to fight back is now – we must #RedefineNigeria before it’s too late.

One-party rule is not stability. It is a ticking time bomb. And Nigeria cannot afford the explosion.

Jeff Okoroafor is a social accountability advocate and a political commentator focused on governance, accountability, and social justice in West Africa.