Drift Toward A One-Party State In Nigeria: A Cautionary Note -By Isaac Asabor

In the last few months, Nigeria’s political landscape has witnessed a disturbing trend, a mass migration of politicians into the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). Governors, senators, and even local government politicians are falling over themselves to defect to the party in power. While such defections have long been a recurring decimal in Nigeria’s politics, the current wave carries a far more dangerous undertone, one that threatens to push Nigeria toward the abyss of a “one-party state”.

At first glance, these defections may seem like ordinary political strategy, a familiar dance of convenience in which politicians chase survival, power, and access to state resources. But scratch beneath the surface and the implications are stark. A democracy cannot thrive where one party becomes so dominant that opposition voices are either silenced, co-opted, or made irrelevant. That is not democracy; it is civilian authoritarianism in disguise.

As been touted from not a few political analysts, the politics of self-preservation is not ideology.

Nigeria’s political parties have long been bereft of ideological distinction. The frequent defections, however, have taken opportunism to new heights. Politicians are not crossing party lines because of conviction or policy disagreements, they are defecting to secure political immunity, maintain patronage networks, and stay close to the corridors of power.

The APC, sensing its growing dominance, has become a magnet for these opportunists. The party is not only welcoming them but celebrating them, parading defectors as political trophies rather than questioning their loyalty or integrity. This is not consolidation of democracy; it is consolidation of control.

The recent defections of figures such as Delta State Governor Sheriff Oborevwori, former Governor Ifeanyi Okowa, Umo Enoh of Akwa Ibom, Peter Mbah of Enugu, and even the rumored move by Siminalayi Fubara of Rivers, signal something far deeper than mere political realignment. The message is simple: if you want to survive politically in Nigeria today, you must wear APC’s badge.

A one-party state does not emerge overnight. It creeps in, through the erosion of opposition strength, the manipulation of institutions, and the co-optation of dissenting voices. As the APC swallows up nearly every viable politician, Nigeria’s multiparty democracy risks degenerating into a one-party autocracy where elections become mere formalities.

The opposition, notably the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP), is being systematically weakened. The PDP, once a behemoth that ruled for 16 years, is now struggling to hold itself together. The Labour Party, which energized young Nigerians during the 2023 elections, is already grappling with internal wrangling and external sabotage.

If this trend continues unchecked, future elections may be nothing but glorified coronations for APC candidates. Nigerians will still go to the polls, yes, but only to endorse what the ruling party has already decided. Democracy will exist in name only, stripped of its essence: choice, competition, and accountability.

Some argue that one-party dominance can bring stability, citing examples from China or Singapore. But Nigeria’s political realities are fundamentally different. What we are seeing is not ideological unity but opportunistic convergence, a crowding of interests, not a consolidation of purpose.

The APC’s growing dominance is not driven by developmental ideology or national vision. It is fueled by patronage, fear of political persecution, and the hunger for access to federal largesse. This kind of “stability” is a mirage. It only breeds complacency, corruption, and abuse of power.

When there is no credible opposition to question policies, the ruling party becomes unaccountable. Institutions bend to political will, the press is intimidated, and the electorate loses confidence in the ballot box. The end result is tyranny wrapped in the cloak of democracy.

Nigerian politicians have perfected the art of political color change. They defect today, return tomorrow, and defect again the next election cycle. This constant movement erodes public trust and reduces governance to a game of personal survival.

The ideological vacuum in our politics has made defection a culture rather than an exception. Political loyalty is now transactional. The voter, who should be the cornerstone of democracy, has become a mere spectator in a power game played by elites.

Sadly, the institutions that should act as stabilizers, the judiciary, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), and civil society, have largely failed to check this decline. The judiciary, which should interpret anti-defection laws strictly, often bends to political convenience. INEC continues to register new parties, but most exist only on paper, serving as bargaining chips for alliances and endorsements.

Nigeria has walked this path before. The First Republic collapsed partly because of one-party dominance in the regions. The Second Republic fell under the weight of elite betrayal and weak opposition. Even under military regimes, we saw how concentration of power led to abuse and eventual implosion.

A one-party Nigeria will not be any different. It will only entrench corruption, foster arrogance of power, and suffocate dissent. The lesson from history is clear: nations that silence opposition eventually silence progress.

To salvage Nigeria’s democracy, urgent steps must be taken to restore political balance and credibility. The anti-defection laws must be enforced with teeth. Politicians who win elections under one party should not be allowed to defect mid-term without losing their seats. The electorate must also rise beyond ethnic and partisan sentiments to hold defectors accountable.

Civil society organizations, the media, and opposition parties must also re-strategize. Instead of lamenting defections, they should build issue-based campaigns that connect with the people. The only antidote to one-party dictatorship is a vibrant, principled opposition that can challenge the ruling party with facts, policies, and integrity.

The ongoing defection frenzy is not a harmless political game; it is a dangerous slide toward a one-party state. If unchecked, Nigeria may soon wake up to find that elections have become rituals, opposition extinct, and democracy hollowed out.

The APC must resist the temptation to equate dominance with destiny. True strength lies not in silencing rivals but in governing justly, allowing competition, and respecting dissent.

For the sake of Nigeria’s fragile democracy, this reckless migration to one political pole must stop. Because once the music of opposition dies, the dance of democracy ends.