2027 Election: Henry Shield Predicts Major Drop in Tinubu’s Support

Political analyst Henry Shield has projected a major decline in President Bola Tinubu’s electoral support ahead of the 2027 presidential election, claiming that 900 out of 1,000 Nigerians would reject the president if they were polled today.

Shield made the claim while speaking on Vanguard’s Politics Hub, where he was asked to substantiate his position that Tinubu may fail to reproduce his 2023 presidential election performance in 2027.

Explaining the basis for his prediction, Shield said he had arrived at the conclusion through consultations, market surveys, street surveys and interactions with Nigerians from different sections of society.

“We do market consultation, market surveys, we do street surveys. We go out and we engage with the people, and I can tell you, sample 1,000 Nigerians, 900 of them are not going to vote for Tinubu,” he said.

He called on media organisations to conduct an independent nationwide survey rather than relying solely on his assessment.

“Please don’t take my word. You are a media house. Engage people to do this for the sake of our democracy, sample just 1,000. Don’t do 1,001. Don’t do the other 9,999. Exactly 1,000,” Shield said.

He further emphasised his prediction: “Sample 1,000 opinions today in Nigeria, 900 of them are not going to vote for Tinubu.”

In the 2023 presidential election, Tinubu secured 8,794,726 votes, accounting for 36.61 per cent of the total votes cast.

Atiku Abubakar, who contested under the PDP, finished second with 6,984,520 votes, representing 29.07 per cent, while Peter Obi of the Labour Party received 6,101,533 votes, or 25.40 per cent.

All three politicians could play major roles in the 2027 presidential contest, but their political alignments have since changed.

Atiku has defected from the PDP to the African Democratic Congress (ADC), while Obi has moved from the Labour Party to the Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC).

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