Appraising Tinubu’s Two Years Renewed Hope -By Gozie Irogboli

There is no doubt that the worst period in the Nigeria post-independent political history aside from the civil war era is the coming of the All Progressives Congress (APC) regime under which the country seems to be plunged into the Hobbesian state of nature where life is short brutish and nasty. First, Mohammadu Buhari came with his obnoxious policies which was blamed on his limited education, lack of exposure, religious bigotry and ethnic chauvinism. And now we have Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the saddle but the situation in the country deteriorated unprecedentedly. In just two years at the helm of affairs, he has put the country on the part of retrogression. There is dysfunctional leadership that has turned the socio-political environment toxic and suffocating for the citizenry. Nigeria has never been this bad. The country is in tatters; everything is in a state of topsy-turvy. The economy is a comatose state, the national consciousness is at its nadir, national security is compromised, the tools of governance monopolized and democracy bastardized.

Under Tinubu’s watch, the Nigerian economy is in ruins, with the inflation rate galloping at over 40% inflation, youth unemployment rate growing exponentially at 42%, with declining capacity utilization and foreign direct investment as investors are withdrawing their stakes due to unfavorable operating environment. There is acute foreign exchange rate crisis as the Naira exchanges at about N1600 to the dollar from N400 where it was under Buhari and dismal balance of payment situation and consequent mounting external debt crisis. There is induced poverty with over 70% of the population living below the poverty line, with growing number of malnourished and out of school children. Insecurity has metastasized to every nook and cranny of the country. And, despite the trillions appropriated annually for defense, it is estimated that close to a million hapless Nigerian citizens have been murdered in the last two years by terrorists, bandits and kidnappers while our demotivated security operatives watched helplessly. And with insecurity come suffering, increase in crime, social vices and youth restiveness. There is disillusionment, social despair and rural discontent. But the government seems nonchalant about it all; corruption is growing in leaps and bounds while the masses rootled in abject poverty. There are human rights abuses and suppression of civil advocacy. Agitators are being framed on trumped up charges while terrorists are rewarded. Indeed, Nigerians have witnessed greed, corruption, profligacy, impunity and failure of governance in the worst degree in this regime.

Expectedly, many concerned Nigerians have in different ways expressed surprises and disappointment at the woeful performances of the government of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu since he took the center stage as the president of Nigeria through the controversial and heavily flawed 2023 presidential election. But I am among the very few that are not surprised being aware that efore now, Tinubu has been over-hyped by a section of the Nigerian Press as an achiever. And Tinubu and his group have paraded themselves as democrats and progressives that hold the key to national rebirth. But alas! we can now see that all that are mere political grandstanding. Tinubu is neither democratic in his conduct nor progressive in his political philosophy. Tinubu is in fact an autocrat, ethnic chauvinist and a retrogressive who through his obnoxious policies and actions has set Nigeria on a retrogressive mode.

I listened to Tinubu’s two years’ anniversary speech and what he listed as his accomplishment within the period. I have also monitored his propaganda machinery and the gas lighting from his media hirelings. And I must also say that I am not in any way surprised at their ridiculous claim to achievement. That is a clear indication that they have false notion about leadership and governance and therefore has nothing to offer.

Clearly, the government of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu has no direction or vision except that of ethnic dominance and self-perpetuation as exemplified in his skewed appointments and discriminatory decisions. Tinubu’s policies are motivated by greed, primordial sentiments and ethnic/regional domination. In a heterogeneous nation like Nigeria, it is inconceivable that a leader could form an exclusionist government wherein over 70% of key appointments came from his own ethnic group while some groups are undermined, marginalized and oppressed.  Thus, Tinubu’s revanchist, exclusionist and divisive policies have dealt a mortal blow on national unity, creating hatred, bitterness, mutual suspicion and recrimination. Tinubu’s policies have destroyed trust, promoted poverty and destroyed our national economy.

Ironically, while the country is being ruined by his ill-conceived policies he is laying to making reforms. I am not in any swayed by his claims of economic reform. That is an abuse of terms. As a trained economist I know what reforms are. Reforms refer to measures designed and adopted to introduce positive changes and improvement in a system, process or institutions with the purpose of correcting observed errors and making the system more efficient and effective. The key word or goal of reforms is improvement. Reforms at the national level should be driven by national interest, public demand through stakeholders’ engagement not by primordial considerations. Two years after, Tinubu’s phantom reforms have not brought any improvement in our systems, processes or institutions of governance, rather the reverse is the case. Removing petroleum subsidy without cushion and floating the exchange rate without buffer are not bold economic decisions but sheer economic recklessness. And what is the result? A wrecked economy. The claim about tax reform is dubious and spurious. The so-called reform is a sham intended to deepen regional imbalance. The tax reform whereby the tax revenue is distributed to states that has obvious advantage over others in terms of federal presence is fraudulent and does not show equity. It is exacerbating the center-periphery anti-development structure existing in the country. Since the government is not implementing true fiscal federalism it should be equitable in revenue distribution. A responsible government should think about balanced economic development model to avoid regional friction. Government should think about lifting the economic and politically disadvantaged states. Why should more be given to Lagos with its obvious head start over other states if not for dubious primordial consideration? I have said it for the umpteenth time that if we discount the real cost of maintaining the federal government installations in Lagos, it will be glaring that Lagos is contributing nothing to the federal purse.

As I observed in an earlier essay, Tinubu has imagined that as one who is “versed” in opposition politics, that once he captures the Judiciary, the National Assembly, the press and the other pressure groups that he would be on easy ride. This line of thinking is what has made him impervious to the cries of the masses reeling under the weight of his ill-advised policies. Again, he had imagined that if he infiltrates the opposition and instigate defections that staying in office beyond the year 2027 would be a done deal. But, this again may be his undoing, for in actuality, the defections are helping the opposition shed some weight of recusant and delinquent members and may catalyze a process that will birth a formidable coalition that will shoo him out of office.

Undoubtedly, Nigerians have suffered untold hardship under Tinubu. And as Tinubu and his group have resumed their plot for another term, the question agitating the minds of many Nigerians now is after this term of hardship can Nigeria survive another four years of hardship under him. The answer obviously is left for Nigerians to provide.

Gozie Irogboli

(goziei@yahoo.com)

An economist, banker, a novelist and public policy analyst