Negotiating Peace and Stability in Ukraine -By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh

Russia-Ukraine conflict is likely coming to an abrupt end, with the United States President Donald Trump’s active involvement during the past few weeks. Trump is an American politician, media personality, and businessman serving as the 47th president of the United States since January 2025. Despite the existing contradictions and complexities, the United States and Russia’s interests are starkly colliding to arrive at a definitive end of the devastating crisis that began on 24 February 2022, with joint legislative agreement of the State Duma and Federation Council, and finally decreed by President Vladimir Putin. Kremlin insisted and termed it as a full-scale ‘special military operation’ which initially reflected in documents and media reports.

Later the foreign media introduced words and phrases such as ‘invasion’ and ‘war’ and ‘imperial conquest’ to describe the conflict between Russia and its former Soviet neighbour Ukraine. The Group of Seven (G7) and European Union were also brought under criticism over terms like “Russian aggression” or “illegal war of aggression” used in official reports and statements in the past. Descriptions and name-calling have become common these years. Down the light, Kremlin said ‘Trump is a dark horse’ along the line. In late February, U.S. President Donald Trump publicly labeled Zelensky an unpopular dictator without a democratic mandate, while also accusing Ukraine of starting the crisis with Russia.

Causes of the Russia-Ukraine Crisis

Over these years Putin, concerned about security risks and lack of security guarantees from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) observing its promise of not expanding further eastward, embarked on “special military operation” ultimately aims at “demilitarization and denazification” of the former Soviet republic of Ukraine on February 24 after both Federation Council and the State Duma (legislative chambers) approved and gave the greenlight for this operation.

As a new world is awakening to the worsening situation, global leaders still believe that all countries have to respect and operate within the confines of international law. That all countries must be guided profoundly by the principles of non-interference in internal matters, respect for national sovereignty and territorial integrity. Russia is currently experiencing a raft of sanctions imposed by the United States and Canada, European Union, Japan, Australia, New Zealand and a host of other countries.

Russia’s Territorial Gains

On 23-27 September 2022, the republics of Donetsk and Lugansk (DPR and LPR) as well as the Kherson region and the liberated territories of the Zaporozhye Region, held referendum to join Russia. In all of these regions, the overwhelming majority of voters favoured becoming part of the Russian Federation. These regions have been a thorny question these past several years, and with the accusation against Kiev for committing the highest level of human rights including intimidation, discrimination and maltreatment of Russian-speaking population in the Eastern Ukraine. The decree, made available on the database, was published on the official Internet portal for legal information on 30th September 2022.

Ukraine’s territorial integrity and political sovereignty has been the focus at the United Nations Security Council. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres pointed out that the UN position on the referendum as unequivocal and slammed, in unreserved terms, the accession unto the Russian Federation. Secretary General Antonio Guterres said: “Any decision to proceed with the annexation of Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions of Ukraine would have no legal value and deserves to be condemned.”

Beyond that Russia strictly expects security guarantees, that the United States will not allow Ukraine to join NATO. Established after the second world war, is an intergovernmental transnational military alliance of 32 member states—30 European and 2 North American. Ukraine’s relationship with NATO began with the NATO–Ukraine Action Plan in 2002. In 2010, under President Viktor Yanukovych, Ukraine re-affirmed its non-aligned status and renounced aspirations of joining NATO. On the contrary, on ascending unto power, Volodymyr Zelenskyy revived the desire, seeking membership of NATO and European Union.

Russia’s Perspectives

For many Russians, this ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine presented an opportunity to focus on the power of economic sovereignty, develop the resources and ultimately strengthen the economy. Notwithstanding multitude of obstacles, Russia’s policy realignment has translated into closer cooperation with a number of Arab states and Asian region, and has attracted partners including China, India and Vietnam, and Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates. The Kremlin continues laying the groundwork for a global re-integration strategy by offering economic incentives to geopolitical leveraging Global South.

Both International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank say in a report that Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) estimated to have increased by 3.2 percent in October 2024 compared to the same month of the previous year. Narratives further show Russia’s economy, despite western and European sanctions these three years, undergone expansion in 2024.

Reports, for instance, indicated 13 additional banks were excluded from the Swift financial communication system and a transaction ban on financial institutions that use a communication system established by the Russian central bank has been introduced. The sanction imposed on Russia’s financial institutions were among mant others, including organizations and institutions.

BRICS+ Adherence to Global Peace

China’s President Xi Jinping headed a peace initiative group, so also South African Cyril Ramaphosa in June last 2023. China and South Africa, together with Russia are stanch members of BRICS+, an emerging group that amplifies multipolar architecture, and adherence to territorial sovereignty and integrity, transparency in relations, equality and a fairer world. In late February, Jinping and Ramaphosa re-underlined that fact and expressed explicit satisfaction with Moscow’s efforts to hold a summit with the U.S. toward ending the three-year-old ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine.

Xi also reiterated China’s stance, which includes a “Friends of Peace” group established last September with several other countries, to promote efforts to end the ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine. Further to that, China and Brazil issued a joint peace plan last year that calls for a peace conference with both Ukraine and Russia and no expansion of the battlefield. South Africa presented a 10-point peace plan in conscientious efforts to find a peaceful resolution to the devastating crisis in Ukraine, as was explained in media reports. China also had 14-point peace plan and that was followed by Brazil. These are BRICS members, it was therefore difficult for the BRICS to reach a concensus on peaceful settlement.

Change in Policy Language

With a new phase and perspectives on Ukraine, it is also expected that the U.S.-Russian dialogue would guarantee a smooth pathway for disarmament, and a number of conditions for improving bilateral relations. As a result, Russian officials have adopted a noticeably different language, toned down their frequent usage of disparaging phrases and began actually reframing its policy approach, since Trump has made concrete moves with its policy to explore natural resources (rare earths) in Ukraine. In fact, Kremlin has rained skyline praises on Trump’s administration, in what it said was a marked contrast with the approach of Europe. Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has similarly endorsed aspects of the Kremlin narrative on the conflict, capitalising on the changing landscape to negotiate, in the latest context of bilateral relations, for the return of U.S. corporate business back to Russian market. The Foreign Ministry further asked Washington for Russian media to resume operations in United States.

Putin-Trump’s Playbook

U.S. President Donald Trump has a new vision of global politics and economy. Trump’s leadership has set forth the button for the “America First” and “Make America Great” again, which acknowledging Washington’s desire to rightly sustain the system of hegemony. Trump capitalizes on using ‘tariffs’ to contain China’s trade, and to play the same with many countries in Europe, Africa, Asia and Latin America. As clearly seen, the impact of crashing USAID, resonates across the world. Trump has withdrawn from World Health Organization, and likely in future will exit a number of these multinational institutions and organizations. There are signs these are possible to re-assert United States power.

In addition to above, the multiple implications of Putin-Trump’s newly carved relations are steadily emerging that will soon begin to shape geopolitics and determine the level of impact and consequences on world economy. The readiness and anxiety to explore the huge untapped mineral reserves in Ukraine, meaning a non-military “footprint” of the United States at backyard of Russia. It signals the likelihood to strengthen United States presence and foothold in that part of the former Soviet space, as Trump has, more or less, put forward a full-fledged participation in the peace process and the conditions of negotiations to end ‘whatever’ in Ukraine. The deal is estimated at $500 billion (£400 billion), which say experts have described as Putin’s gift to Donald Trump and the United States.

Trump’s new geopolitical chapter, particularly at this critical stage, has also sparked tensions between Europe and United States, with the instrumental position been played by Trump, the highlighted outcomes of the talks with France’s president Emmanuel Macron. Some experts said the White House has driven a wedge between the Russia and Europe. Despite growing antagonism, European Union has taken additional sanction measures against Russia in late February in total support for Ukraine during the third anniversary of Russia-Ukraine crisis.

South Africa’s first meeting of G20 foreign ministers was wrapped but overshadowed by the absence of the United States, as it accused Pretoria of an “anti-Americanism” agenda. South Africa insisted in reports that it remains committed to supporting the dialogue process between Russia and Ukraine. South Africa reiterated its statement on social posts “the urgent need for an inclusive peace process that involves all parties.” In the past, of course, South Africa made efforts in leading an Africa Peace Initiative group to meet respectively with Volodymyr Zelenskyy  and Vladimir Putin in Kyiv, capital of Ukraine and St. Petersburg, Russia.

The Way Forward

Russia has long argued that it was forced to launch the ‘special military operation’ to protect Russian-speakers in Ukraine and defend itself by making sure that Ukraine could not join NATO. Ukraine and the West say these were pretexts for a colonial-style land grab. That however, Kremlin has maintained that, without a deep analysis and understanding of the root causes of the crisis around Ukraine, it is essentially impossible to work properly on a (peace) settlement.

Donald Trump’s whirlwind approach widely to geopolitics and geo-economics, and particularly to Russia-Ukraine crisis has, so far, sparked tensions and intensive discussions around the world. Nevertheless, in order to chart a path to peace, the global powers and multilateral groupings and organizations, including the United Nations Security Council, apparently have to determine the fate of Ukraine by getting involved to negotiate a peaceful settlement to end the three-year-old crisis. In other words, this crisis could be completely unexplainable and simply inappropriate, to a large extent, impossibly be resolved without Ukraine. The negotiating table must necessarily have wide-range concerned powers and agencies to arrive at qualitative results for the former Soviet region and for the entire contemporary world.