Nigeria’s Refugee Crisis Deepens as Numbers Hit 478,150 Despite Global Crackdown

Nigeria’s growing displacement crisis is raising fresh concerns as the number of Nigerians recognised as refugees abroad climbed to 478,150 in 2025, representing a 36 per cent increase from the 352,960 recorded in 2020, even as major destination countries tighten immigration rules.

According to United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) data obtained by Vanguard, the increase translates to 125,190 additional Nigerian refugees over six years, underscoring the continuing pressure of insecurity and forced displacement at home.

The figures have continued to rise despite restrictive immigration measures introduced by the United States, United Kingdom, Canada and the European Union.

Data for the period showed that Nigeria’s refugee population rose from 352,960 in 2020 to 383,660 in 2021, representing an 8.7 per cent increase. It climbed further to 391,120 in 2022 and 410,308 in 2024 before recording a 17 per cent jump to 478,150 in 2025.

The report indicated further acceleration in 2026, with Niger, Cameroon and Chad alone hosting 475,901 Nigerian refugees.

Niger remained the leading destination with 258,402 refugees, followed by Cameroon with 127,858. Canada hosted 34,125, Chad 22,811 and Italy 22,186, making them the five leading destinations identified in the data.

The concentration of refugees in Niger, Cameroon and Chad, which together account for approximately 85 per cent of the reported total, suggests that most Nigerians fleeing across borders seek refuge in neighbouring countries.

Fewer pending asylum claims do not mean fewer people fleeing

While the refugee population increased, the number of Nigerians awaiting decisions on asylum claims fell by 35.6 per cent, from 87,289 in 2020 to 56,176 in 2025.

UNHCR Nigeria linked much of the decline to fewer pending applications in the United States, where outstanding claims dropped from 33,414 in 2020 to 3,033 during the period.

The agency warned that asylum statistics must be interpreted carefully because they measure applications awaiting decisions rather than the total number of people fleeing danger.

“The figure falls when claims are decided or closed, not because fewer people are fleeing,” UNHCR Nigeria told Vanguard.

It explained that neighbouring countries generally recognise people escaping conflict in Nigeria as refugees on a group basis.

“So they count as refugees, not asylum-seekers,” the agency said.

UNHCR identified escalating conflict and insecurity as the principal factors behind the growing refugee population, while acknowledging that economic hardship compounds vulnerability.

The figures also come against the backdrop of an estimated 3.6 million internally displaced Nigerians, according to the International Organisation for Migration (IOM). Some of those displaced within the country subsequently cross international borders in search of protection.

Nigeria joins countries facing major displacement pressures

Nigeria’s rising refugee numbers mirror wider displacement trends across several countries affected by conflict and instability, although the circumstances differ.

Myanmar’s refugee population rose from 1.103 million in 2020 to 1.52 million in 2025, while its asylum-seeker population increased from 40,207 to 67,825.

The Democratic Republic of Congo recorded a more than twofold increase in refugees, from 840,392 to 1.78 million. Its asylum-seeker population rose from 145,372 to 168,421.

Afghanistan’s refugee population increased from 2.59 million in 2020 to 2.67 million in 2025, while asylum seekers grew from 238,791 to 270,007 following the Taliban takeover and continued instability.

Sudan experienced a particularly sharp deterioration after civil war erupted in 2023. Its refugee population climbed from 787,823 in 2020 to 2.39 million in 2025, while asylum seekers surged from 70,049 to 940,297.

South Sudan’s refugees increased from 2.18 million to 2.39 million, and its asylum-seeker population rose from 4,858 to 123,984.

Syria recorded a decline in refugees, from 6.703 million in 2020 to 4.87 million in 2025, although its asylum-seeker numbers increased from 107,085 to 154,355.

Ukraine, which had 35,156 refugees in 2020, saw the number rise dramatically to 5.22 million by 2025 following Russia’s full-scale invasion. Its asylum-seeker population increased from 21,426 to 26,583.

Nigeria’s situation differs from countries experiencing large-scale conventional warfare. Its displacement crisis reflects a combination of insecurity, communal violence, economic hardship and climate-related pressures.

UNHCR has identified conflict, insecurity, flooding and economic fragility as important factors driving Nigerians to cross borders.

Immigration restrictions fail to halt the increase

The refugee surge has continued even as traditional destinations introduce tougher rules governing asylum, resettlement and immigration.

In the United States, the Biden administration’s June 2024 “Securing the Border” proclamation restricted access to asylum through measures that included limits on border crossings and changes to processing requirements.

President Donald Trump subsequently suspended refugee admissions in January 2025, cancelled certain resettlement funding and reduced the 2026 refugee admissions ceiling from 125,000 to 7,500, a reduction of 94 per cent. Places were reserved for white South African Afrikaners.

The report further cited an indefinite pause in asylum decisions introduced in December 2025 and restrictions retained in March 2026 affecting nationals of 39 countries, despite a June 2026 court ruling declaring the approval blackout illegal.

In Britain, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood introduced a system of temporary 30-month refugee leave subject to regular reviews, alongside plans to extend the settlement period to 20 years. The measures also include provisions for the return of individuals whose home countries are considered safe and changes to statutory housing and financial support.

Canada has also strengthened its immigration rules through Bill C-12, the Strengthening Canada Immigration System and Borders Act, which received royal assent on March 26, 2026. The legislation includes restrictions on certain asylum applications filed more than a year after entry and a 14-day deadline for some irregular crossings from the United States.

Meanwhile, the European Union is implementing its Pact on Migration and Asylum and a new Return Regulation to strengthen screening, detention and deportation procedures.

Analysts argue that fewer pending asylum applications may partly reflect tougher access rules and changes in case processing. However, the rising number of refugees indicates that the conditions forcing Nigerians to flee have not been adequately addressed.

IOM calls for safer and legal migration routes

The International Organisation for Migration has cautioned that border restrictions alone cannot eliminate migration and may instead drive people towards irregular routes.

Ali Ibrahim Ali, Head of Sub-Office, Lagos, said migration is influenced by security, family, economic conditions and the search for better opportunities.

“Migration is a reality of our world. People move for many reasons, including opportunity, family, security and economic realities, and Nigerians are no different. Stricter borders alone will not stop migration and can push people towards irregular and more dangerous routes,” he said.

Ali argued that the priority should be to manage migration safely, orderly and regularly rather than focus exclusively on preventing movement.

He advocated effective border management, legal migration channels, reliable information and improved opportunities to reduce migrants’ exposure to exploitation, trafficking and smuggling.

Former envoy links rising numbers to desperation

Former Nigerian ambassador and former Executive Secretary of the Gulf of Guinea Commission, Ambassador Florentina Adenike-Ukonga, attributed the surge partly to desperation among Nigerians seeking better living conditions overseas.

She identified unemployment, economic pressures and false promises of lucrative jobs as factors pushing people towards irregular migration.

According to her, some Nigerians sell valuable property to pay smugglers, only to encounter exploitation, trafficking and difficult living conditions abroad.

She described journeys through the Sahara Desert, Morocco and Libya, followed by dangerous Mediterranean crossings in small boats, as routes used by migrants attempting to reach southern Europe.

“They smuggle themselves out through Morocco and Libya, across the Mediterranean in small boats. When the boats capsize, they are rescued and taken to camps. That is why the refugee population soared despite border tightening. They think the grass is greener on the other side,” Ukonga said.

She noted that people displaced within Nigeria, particularly poor farmers in remote villages, often lack the resources to pay smugglers, while those who reach Europe may have been able to finance the journey.

Suleiman questions the economic benefits of migration

Ambassador Dahiru Suleiman, a former Nigerian diplomat who spent 27 of his 35 years in service across nine countries, argued that Nigeria is not at war in the conventional sense and questioned the reasons many citizens seek refuge abroad.

He maintained that a significant number of Nigerians leave primarily because of poverty and economic hardship rather than political persecution.

Suleiman said many migrants expect their financial problems to disappear overseas but end up working two or three low-paid jobs to survive.

Recounting encounters with Nigerians in Hungary during winter wearing canvas shoes while local residents wore thick boots, and in Vienna where Nigerians stayed in a refugee hostel but could not work freely, he questioned the realities behind the promise of a better life abroad.

He further claimed that 90 per cent of Nigerians in the United States were barely surviving.

Suleiman also warned about the dangers of journeys across the Sahara to Libya and subsequent Mediterranean crossings, where migrants risk drowning or dying along the route.

He urged the Federal Government, through the National Orientation Agency, to educate Nigerians about the dangers of irregular migration, encourage them to secure jobs before travelling and highlight opportunities available within the country.

Living abroad while constantly relying on loans in America, he said, “is not life.”

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