Osun 2026: Dancing, Debts, And The Battle For Government House -By John Oyebanji

Politics, like the harmattan wind, announces itself quietly before it arrives in full force. In Osun State today, the air is changing, alternately calm and charged. Alignments are being forged, loyalties tested, old friendships revisited, and new betrayals rehearsed in whispers. As Chinua Achebe once reminded us, “When the moon is shining, the cripple becomes hungry for a walk.” Osun 2026 is approaching, and everyone is suddenly ready to walk.

Without diminishing the relevance of other political platforms, the cold reality of our political arithmetic suggests that four parties presently carry any realistic chance of producing the next Governor of Osun State: Accord, African Democratic Congress (ADC), All Progressives Congress (APC), and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

What follows is not prophecy, nor partisan cheerleading. It is a preliminary reading of the tea leaves, offered with the humility that a week is an eternity in politics. Events will unfold, actors will evolve, and today’s truths may be tomorrow’s footnotes. Still, one must speak while the marble is warm enough to receive inscriptions.

ALL PROGRESSIVES CONGRESS (APC) – ASIWAJU MUNEER’DEEN BOLA OYEBAMIJI

Oyebamiji enters the race wearing a heavy crown. Not because of personal inadequacy, but because he is the bearer of a collective burden.

He flies the flag of a party weighed down by moral and governance baggage at federal, state, and local levels. He carries the unresolved trauma of unpaid salaries, modulation debts, and the modulation system itself. He is tethered, fairly or unfairly, to the economic hardship Nigerians are enduring under APC governance nationally.

More dangerously, he inherits the political scar from the party’s ill-fated imposition of a flagbearer through the disgraceful disqualification of seven gubernatorial aspirants who lawfully purchased nomination forms. That singular act bruised egos, fractured trust, and deepened internal resentment. To this day, the APC remains visibly fractionalized, its wounds barely concealed beneath party slogans.

Oyebamiji also bears the weight of perception, that he is a political extension of former Governor, Alhaji Gboyega Oyetola. In the minds of many voters, this raises a troubling question: Is this continuity or captivity? For a sizeable segment of Osun people, Oyetola’s governance era is a chapter they would rather not re-open.

Yet, does Oyebamiji stand a chance?

Yes, he does, but only barely, and only conditionally.

To survive politically, he must first do the hardest work in politics, that’s genuine reconciliation. Not cosmetic meetings, not photo-op handshakes. Real, painful, ego-bruising reconciliation with those humiliated by his party’s primary process.

Secondly, his communication machinery must work like men writing their fate on marble. He must be sold not as “Oyetola’s man,” but as Oyebamiji’s own man, with a distinct temperament, priorities, and governing philosophy. His campaign must be issues-driven, not obsessed with the current government or distracted by personality attacks.

The spread of politically relevant stakeholders of the party must be convinced that loyalty will not be rewarded with regret, as against the party’s long-standing habit of oppression, where “monkeys work, baboons chop.” Fail to do these, and his chances thin out dramatically.

PEOPLES DEMOCRATIC PARTY (PDP) – MR. ADEBAYO ADEDAMOLA OLUGBENGA

Let us be honest, brutally honest.

As it stands, Mr. Adebayo Adedamola is not the PDP’s real project. He feels more like a placeholder than a contender, a name on the ballot rather than a name in the hearts of party men.

Virtually all meaningful PDP structures followed the sitting governor into his new political home. The soul of the party has moved; what remains is the shell.

Until then, any deep analysis of Mr. Adedamola’s chances is premature. If nothing changes, his chances are almost nonexistent.

AFRICAN DEMOCRATIC CONGRESS (ADC) – RT. HON. NAJEEM FOLASAYO SALAM.

Rt. Hon. Najeem Salam is no political lightweight. He is experienced, grounded, and widely respected. In any serious political conversation in Osun, his name commands attention.

However, elections are not won by pedigree alone.

The ADC has a mountain to climb. It lacks the statewide goodwill, the financial war chest, and the spread of heavyweight political actors required to win a governorship election of this magnitude. As of today, the party does not yet inspire the confidence of inevitability that voters often gravitate towards.

Can ADC win?

I cannot speak to what strategic cards its leaders may be holding close to their chests. But judging from present realities, the road ahead is steep, uncertain, and unforgiving.

ACCORD – ASIWAJU ADEMOLA NURUDEEN ADELEKE

Love him or loathe him, you cannot ignore Ademola Adeleke.

He excites people deeply and emotionally. The logic of that excitement can be debated endlessly, but its reality is undeniable. He has mastered something many politicians never learn, and that is emotional connection. For some, his dance is governance. For others, his relatability is leadership.

Strategically speaking, his administration raises serious questions. Many foundational sectors appear to have been sacrificed at the altar of inanities.

Yet, politics is not always a seminar room. Public support does not always obey logic.

Another factor working powerfully in his favour is the narrative of persecution. The seizure of local government funds has been successfully sold to the public as an APC-led attempt to frustrate his administration. While deeper analysis reveals complexities, voters rarely vote with footnotes. They vote with feelings, stories, and relatability.

So, can Adeleke win again? Yes. In fact, he is the man to beat.

You may dislike this reality. You may dispute it intellectually, but seasoned political gladiators understand one eternal rule: the crowd decides the contest, not the commentator.

What Osun does with this truth in 2026 remains to be seen.

John Oyebanji is a Public Affairs Analyst, Media/PR Specialist, and Educational Administrator, among many other things he represents. He writes from Modakeke, Osun State, and can be reached via +2349032201075, thejohnoyebanji@gmail.com