Pope Leo XIV’s Lung Cancer Diagnosis Raises Questions About Future of His Papacy

Pope Leo XIV’s lung cancer operation and ongoing recovery are prompting fresh debate about the future direction of his papacy, with experts suggesting the health crisis could affect his public appearances, international travel and leadership decisions.

The 71-year-old head of the Catholic Church, which has approximately 1.4 billion followers worldwide, underwent an operation on Tuesday to remove part of his lung. Further tests are expected to establish whether he is cancer-free or requires additional treatment.

The pontiff, who was born in Chicago, is recovering at Gemelli Hospital in Rome and is expected to remain there for at least a few days.

According to the Vatican, Leo was out of bed on Thursday after a “good night”. Sources also said he remained upbeat during his recovery.

Despite the encouraging signs, observers believe the diagnosis could mark a turning point in his papacy.

“Illness acts as a crossroads in a pontificate — it either accelerates its momentum or diminishes its power,” Vatican watcher Giacomo Galeazzi wrote in La Stampa on Thursday.

Mikael Corre, who covers the Vatican for France’s La Croix newspaper, said the medical situation had changed how the pope was viewed.

“No-one expected to be waiting for medical bulletins again so soon — certainly not with this particular pope, who was 69 at the time of the conclave” in which he was elected, Corre told AFP.

The experience has drawn comparisons with Pope Francis, who spent more than five weeks in hospital in early 2025. During that period, the Vatican regularly published medical bulletins, including updates on serious episodes in which the former pontiff’s life was at risk.

Leo was elected in May 2025. A tennis fan who enjoys going to the gym, he became the youngest man to lead the Catholic Church since John Paul II nearly 40 years earlier.

“He was the ‘athletic pope’ who also proved to be a great traveller,” Corre said.

“He may remain both but he will now also be a pope whose health is constantly scrutinised.”

Pope expected to scale back engagements

Leo has suspended all audiences until October 20, and uncertainty surrounds his travel schedule, particularly a planned trip to Uruguay, Argentina and Peru from November 6 to 17.

His immediate programme is expected to be less demanding, with fewer public engagements and official commitments.

US Vatican expert Elise Ann Allen, who authored a biography of Leo, believes the pope will be eager to resume his duties.

“I think he is going to want to jump right back into things as much as he can. I think he’ll push himself,” Allen told AFP.

“But he’s also very prudent. Leo understands his limitations and he’ll listen to them,” she added.

Since becoming pope, Leo — the first American to hold the position — has gradually established his approach to Church leadership. He has addressed major international concerns, including conflicts and artificial intelligence, while also challenging world leaders and responding to criticism from US President Donald Trump.

“We’re not going to see him change his style,” Allen said.

She added that a health scare could strengthen his resolve by helping him focus on what matters most.

“Scares like this have a way of crystallising things for you, of what’s important,” she said.

“He will be even more determined, I think.”

Church appointments and internal divisions

Corre said some Vatican insiders believe the illness could “shift his priorities”, potentially resulting in fewer overseas visits and a greater focus on internal appointments.

Leo has yet to appoint any cardinals, who will play a key role in choosing his successor at a future conclave. Meanwhile, five heads of Vatican departments, or dicasteries, have reached retirement age and are awaiting replacements.

The pope also faces the challenge of managing divisions between liberal and conservative groups within the Church, tensions that persisted throughout Francis’s leadership.

According to Corre, some Vatican insiders hope Leo’s health crisis will prompt him to replace Francis’s allies in influential departments with more conservative figures.

Others believe he will maintain his focus on diplomacy, which Allen said has already “brought great stability”.

“I think this health crisis has eased those frictions even further,” Allen said.

“It’s brought the Catholic Church together in support around Pope Leo in a very strong way,” she added.

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