Tinubu’s End Game On Fubara -By Pius Mordi

Sometime in 1962, late Chief George Sodeinde Sowemimo struggled with the constraints of the law in the treasonable felony trial against then opposition leader, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, in a highly charged political tension, made the famous statement often quoted not just in legal circles. “My hands are tied”, he said in his legal pronouncement.

After President Bola Tinubu announced that he has “reconciled” suspended Rivers State governor, Mr. Sim Fubara and his political godfather, Nyesom Wike, a number of people felt Fubara had betrayed the cause of combating and reining in the power and influence of godfathers in leadership selection.

When he sought to assert himself having been wholly packaged by Wike himself to succeed him, not a few Nigerians applauded Fubara when the fight began. The political elites in Rivers State seemed to have backed him. But when Wike worked for Tinubu to emerge president in 2023, he knew the decision will be pivotal going forward. Even though the House of Assembly remained unflinching in being Wike’s boys, Fubara banked on the support of the senior political leaders to dislodge the iroko and chart a new trajectory for the political class in the state.

Unfortunately, in the calculations of Team Fubara, the depth of the relationship between Wike and Tinubu was not taken into reckoning. Although the terms of the settlement has not been revealed and may never be let out official, the buzz from political circles elicited intense and intriguing debate on the WhatsApp platform of the core ex-editorial staff of The Guardian when it was truly the flagship of the Nigerian press. According to reports, the truce reached during a closed-door meeting the duo and Tinubu affirmed that Fubara will not get a second term. Equally important for the truce, Wike will nominate all the chairpersons across the 23 Local Government Areas in the forthcoming council election.

In the robust, but largely dispassionate exchange on the platform of alumnus of The Guardian, my friend who has often championed causes associated with justice, Wale Adeoye, was unsparing of Team Fubara. “If Fubara had planned his strategy very well, he won’t be in the situation he finds himself. He went into the battle without a long term plan and without sustainable strategy driven by the people that elected him. I had a lot of interaction with our friends in the Niger Delta, the groups that rule the creeks. If he had secured their real support, he probably may have been able to fight back decisively. Our politicians often seek alliance with individuals, instead of building alliances with the social and cultural forces, and the electorate that elected them. It becomes so easy for such individuals to pull the rug off their legs. Very soon, just watch, the two may appear in a joint press conference blaming the media for the dispute between them,” Adeoye said.

Ogbodo Abraham, a former editor of The Guardian titles, is vociferous in his criticism of presidential and legislative overreach from Aso Rock. He does not pull punches on Niger Delta issues. The only thing he has not done is to join the boys in the creek! “To retreat is not to surrender,” he said of Fubara. “There is no wisdom in pushing when danger outweighs hope. Wise men save a little for tomorrow and not risk all in one wrong move.”

Ogbodo disagreed with Wale Adeoye on his stance that Fubara should have treaded the path of integrity by resigning rather accept the terms of the peace. “We are not in normal times. We are in the worst kind of dictatorship ever known to Nigerians. How do you explain this character of the military under a democracy? It was much better under the military. You clearly understand better the issues playing out in Rivers State.

“Besides, Fubara would have been appropriately advised by the same elders in the state who had always stood by him. He couldn’t have acted alone. It is a matter of going for the safest option in the short run. In the long run, the building dialectics may peacefully or violently enthrone a new state of affairs in Rivers State.

“My only concern is the effective management of the burgeoning issues to stop them from growing into a conflagration that could consume more than it is currently consuming,” Ogbodo concluded.

I think it goes well beyond integrity and honour for Fubara. What we have always had is a successor successfully wresting power and control from his former godfather. It happened in Enugu, Kano, Anambra and Akwa Ibom states. Those that tried in Lagos never had a fighting chance. In the case of Rivers, Fubara was actually up against Tinubu who saw in Wike a tool for guaranteeing a hold on the state.

Come to think of it, was Fubara weak? No. He squared up against his former boss almost from day one. The old guard of the political elites in the state teamed up with him and he was on the way to a decisive win. But Aso Rock played the ace. After simulating an attack on crude oil infrastructure, it was a fait accompli when Tinubu declared a state of emergency. The reference to how Obasanjo was previously fought by some governors during his failed third term bid is in order. The key difference was in the fairly responsive National Assembly leadership at the time. It showed how Obasanjo’s bid was shot down. Tinubu learnt from that and scripted the subversion of the voting process in the senate. Ken Nnamani as Senate President asked every senator to “answer his father’s name” when the third term issue had to be voted on. But Akpabio orchestrated a voice vote when the Rivers State of Emergency was to be voted on. If there was the Nnamani option, it would have been voted down.

Tinubu is a political genius, not necessarily of the saintly hue. Nobody has called him the evil genius yet. But even the one that gave himself that description now knows he himself is a learner.

If Fubara had not accepted what was tabled before him and opted to resign ‘honourably’, it would have been a fast track to a long term jail for him. Remember Prof. Tam David West as Minister of Petroleum under Ibrahim Babangida’s regime? They wanted to get him and he was tried and jailed for drinking tea and accepting a wrist watch as gift from an oil industry chief.

The political rift between Fubara and Wike, his predecessor, has largely centred on control of the political structure in the oil-rich state. Fubara’s hands are tied. He first has to survive, then look forward to fighting better another day. I agree with the view that Wike is the real winner here and, by extension, Tinubu. By controlling the local government chairmen, he retains significant influence over the state’s political machinery, which will be crucial for 2027.