Osun 2026: Crossroads And Consequences (1), by Abiodun Komolafe

My experience as a Branch Internal Auditor in a now-consolidated commercial bank during the 2000s taught me the importance of accountability and oversight in institutions. In this role, I identified exceptions, assessed their impact, and recommended corrective actions. This skillset has since informed my understanding of the need for transparency and accountability in governance and political institutions. 

Akinwumi  Olojo, my former Line Boss and the bank’s Chief Internal Auditor, would often remind us that a governor paying salaries is merely fulfilling his contractual obligation to the electorate. “Thanking him for doing his job,” he’d say, “is akin to praising a student for attending school.”

At a time like this, Olojo’s aphorism, “Delayed or defaulted salaries are symptoms of institutional distress”, readily comes to mind. This adage underscores the critical role Internal Auditors play in ensuring organizational accountability, efficiency and good governance. In the context of democratic governance, this principle is equally applicable – and perhaps even more crucial. Well, I will come back to that later! 

That said, it is no longer news that, after a clutch of off-cycle gubernatorial elections, the 2026 contest in Osun State looms large. Anambra State, of course, looms in-between. The issues in Osun, coming so close to the 2027 general elections, will test the waters as to the wind and the political current on the road to the presidential election a year later. 

Obviously, Osun is currently in a state of political flux! It is at the moment with no defining or dominant political headwind and all eyes can see it! The All Progressives Congress (APC), the main opposition party, is still reeling from its unexpected loss in the governorship election two years ago. Indeed, it is difficult to define the party since it is hardly portraying itself as a cohesive, effective opposition. It’s a classic case of ‘when the going gets tough, the tough get going’ – but in this case, Osun APC seems to be stuck in neutral. It’s also a case of ‘better the devil you know’ – but in this case, the devil is reveling in the trappings of power and further tightening its grip on the state. 

Unless Osun APC can offer a compelling alternative to the current arrangement that has become conveniently mired in the miasma of ‘Owambe’, the state’s anomie will likely worsen. This could lead to a low voter turnout in 2026, which might not be surprising because, even Ondo State with heightened political activities had a voter turnout of an unacceptable 27%. This scenario goes against the grain of the typical Yoruba values of enlightened self-interest and the use of politics as an avenue to push the progressive agenda associated with the quest to make ‘life more abundant.’ 

The trouble with July 16, 2022 was that those who were gifted with testing the temperature of the turmoil and the tumult of the issues plaguing the then ruling party chose not to wake up from their slumber while those who claimed to have been surrounded by the vibrant green of nature and the singing of birds simply went back to sleep. Somewhere, somehow, Osun APC lost the plot and it was as if the gods were angry!

With 2026 fast approaching, Osun APC needs to decide on zoning for its 2026 governorship candidate to avoid a chaotic primary election. If not managed carefully, this could lead to severe electoral consequences. With the PDP likely to present a unified front, leveraging incumbency power, APC will be at a disadvantage. For his own good, the candidate must be a unifier and must be experienced. This time, the party must also be expansive and avoid premature triumphalism. After all, it’s precisely the absence of expansiveness and the shedding of the spirit of accommodation that led to PDP’s victory in 2022. 

Tajudeen Lawal is the state APC chairman. He is optimistic about the party’s chances in the 2026 election. He believes the current administration’s poor performance has created an opportunity for APC to succeed. The prince from Ile-Ife, Osun State, is confident that Osun APC, on his watch, is resilient and well-equipped to withstand any anti-democratic forces that may try to undermine it, just as it did during the 2022 governorship election.

According to Bola Oyebamiji, former Osun State Commissioner for Finance and current Managing Director of the Federal Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA), Osun APC must “deploy strategies and synergize” to win the 2026 election. He advises the party to “conduct a SWOT analysis of its strengths and weaknesses in the 2018 and 2022 elections.” 

Oyebamiji expresses confidence in the party’s solidity and leadership, stating that, if the party continues to improve, it will win in 2026. He also assures that APC is ready to contest and win the forthcoming local government elections, despite the state’s election umpire being perceived as biased towards the government.

Babajide Omoworare, a former Senator, believes that APC should be more of “ko ara re s’ihin”, not “ko ara re s’ohun” – that, “beyond punishing errant party members, it must oil its mediatory and conciliatory machinery and work as a team.” He also notes that the party’s current reward system, which is flawed and unfair, must be reviewed to accommodate clarity, transparency and justice. “Monkeys should not be working while baboons are eating.” Omoworare emphasizes that politics and electioneering require strategic planning and attention to detail. He also urges the party “to decide whether to focus on zoning positions or winning elections.” 

Dotun Babayemi is confident that Osun APC is on the right track, citing the party’s current unity of purpose and concerted effort as a significant strength. He cites the outcomes of the recently concluded governorship elections in Edo and Ondo States as evidence of the party’s influence and leadership efforts at all levels. He notes that the party is strongly represented in all local governments across the state, and areas of concern are being addressed. With the 2026 election on the horizon, Babayemi is confident that APC will emerge victorious.

Olalekan Badmus, the former Osun State Commissioner for Regional Integration and Special Duties, and current Executive Director, Marine and Operations at the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA), is confident about the party’s chances in 2026. According to him, APC is actively working to return to power, with regular weekly meetings across wards, local governments and the state executive committee. Badmus notes that the party’s Apex Leader’s mentees are giving back to society and benefiting party members. “The party is also consulting widely to regain its winning momentum, and attracting political heavyweights to boost its chances, and the Elders’ Council is ready to intervene when needed.

Great party, good promises! However, it’s worth noting that winning elections demands a profound understanding of the complexities of power, the nuances of human nature and the unpredictable dynamics of the political landscape. In the game of politics, promises are merely the currency of persuasion, but it’s the ability to deliver, to adapt, and to evolve that ultimately determines success. 

In the spirit of unvarnished candor, which is the oxygen that sustains the flame of true democracy, it’s time for Osun APC to strip away the politics and confront the realities! It’s time to tap into new opportunities, refresh its vision, re-energize its grassroots connections, and regain its relevance among the electorate. By doing so, the party will turn its current challenges into opportunities for growth, emerging stronger, more united, and more focused.

*To be concluded.

*KOMOLAFE wrote from Ijebu-Jesa, Osun State, Nigeria (ijebujesa@yahoo.co.uk)