Still On The Economic Sabotage Dressed As Economic Reform -By Gozie Irogboli

In my earlier essay on this theme I make it clear that the Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration’s reform catchword is deceptive and misleading. I had stated emphatically that there is no genuine economic reform. What we have seen the government do in the past three years are: the sudden removal of the petroleum subsidy without caution and without fixing the domestic refineries, the floating of the naira, uncontrolled borrowing, aggressive tax reviews, and lack of fiscal discipline, off-budget expenditure, unlawful expropriation and economic repression and arbitrary deployment of public funds in pursuance of personal and primordial agenda. And all that cannot pass for a reform.

I did state also that: “economic reforms are about policy changes designed to make the economy more productive, efficient and stable. Reforms are introduced to remove distortions, reduce wastefulness, boost private investment, market competitiveness and economic growth, strengthen fiscal discipline, develop institutions, infrastructure, build capacity and provide social safety nets for the citizens”. And viewed against this background, it could be seen the government’s so-called reform is doing the opposite. The reform has no defined goals, no direction and no timeline and it has thrown the economy into a state of topsy-turvy.

I received many responses after the publication from my friends, some pointing out the issue of economic growth as one of the result of the reforms. And I told them emphatically that there is no growth in the economy. The growth narrative is part of the scheme to mislead the public about the real economic situation in the country. The Nigerian economy as at today is stagnated. If we take economic growth for what it is: as an increase in our national output, aggregate demand and productive capacity over time, where is the growth? If there is growth, what are the growth drivers? What sectors of the economy is growing? What are the indicators of this growth? Is the so-called growth sustainable? And why is the effect not felt?

Since the coming of this administration in 2023, about 20 multinational companies have closed their business and left the country. And that is not all; many more global brands in Nigeria are still scaling down their operations, shifting from local manufacturing to purely import-based distribution models. And if the multinationals that have relatively more access to funds than our local firms could close their businesses and leave the shores of the country, citing toxic operating environment as their reason, what about the local firms?

The mass exodus of multinationals out of the shores of Nigeria is the first indication that there is no genuine reform. Reforms should encourage investment and inflow of capital. The exit of the foreign companies have further worsen the economic woes of the country. The first adverse effect is job loss. Experts, and local agencies estimated that the exit, restructuring and scaling down of operations of multinationals in Nigeria in the last three years has resulted in the loss of over 20,000 direct jobs and about 100,000 indirect jobs across the broader value chain. The second obvious effect is the issue capital flight. The Vanguard Newspaper report of September 8, 2026 put the estimated foreign portfolio withdrawals out of the country in the last three years at N266 billion. And the report from Henley & Partners, a foreign wealth-tracking firm indicates that in 2025 alone the amount of money moved out Nigeria by individuals is about $1.5 billion.

Clearly, the job loss, capital flight occasioned by the exit of the multinationals would mean reduced national output which experts and economists have estimated to be in the neighborhood of tens of trillions of naira. So where is the growth coming from? And what type of reform is it that scares investors?

So, when the government propagandists claim that the reform program is attracting FDI, you can see that it is deceptive. No investor invests in a toxic environment where his investment is not secure. We are all aware that some foreign embassies in Nigeria warn their people about the dangers of visiting and investing in Nigeria.

Official report from the Bureau of Statistics shows that about 70% of the over 3 million registered companies in Nigeria have not filed their annual report in the last 3 years. And among those that filed theirs, more than one half filed nil return; meaning that they have not been doing business. It is reported that over 400000 dormant business entities have been deregistered by the CAC. And those that are doing business almost all are operating below their installed capacities. Experts put the country capacity utilization between 30% and 40%. Where exactly is the growth coming from? And what manner of reform is that which crowds out investment?

The development in the oil, telecom and banking sectors alone may stimulate activities in other sectors but are not enough to attribute general economic growth. How many people are engaged in those sectors? Nigerian economy is a dual economy with a very large informal sector that is stagnated due to harsh economic environment. The business of the mechanic, the welder, the carpenter in our neighborhood are stagnated due to high energy cost, high cost of transportation, eroding purchasing power of the people…

No doubt, the only sector that seems to be burgeoning under Tinubu is the underground economy—corruption, organized crime, economic banditry, kidnapping for ransom, drug-trafficking, gambling, and other illegal activities. The UNDP and other institutions have estimated the nation’s shadow economy to be over N50 trillion that is between 55% – 58% of the GDP. The growth in this sector is harmful to the economy.

Furthermore, some of my correspondents drew my attention to the fact that the IMF and the World Bank indicated in their reports that Nigeria economy recorded growth within this period. I told them, yes, I know. But, I stated that the IMF and the World Bank know the truth, they know our true situation but they will publish the figures that you want see because they are in business and their business is lending to poor countries. Although, the purpose of this piece is not to critique the Bretton Woods institutions, yet, I have to state here that all their policy advice, technical help and loans to the poor nations are primarily to grow their own business, to regulate the global monetary system and not necessarily to grow your economy. Why would the IMF and the World Bank prefer increase in tax revenue, removal of subsidy and reduction of expenditure social services in an impoverished population to investment in developing natural resources? The reason is obvious: to put more money in the hands of the government to service debt. Tax incentive is a macro-economic tool that can be used increase aggregate demand, investments and growth in the economy. Investments in undeveloped natural resources would stimulate rapid development of poor nations.

We live in an underdeveloped economy with a poor population and abundant untapped resources. So, every policy of the government is expected to take this reality into consideration. Every reform and every policy decision must factor the structure and potentials of the economy into the planning matrix otherwise it would a fruitless exercise. Why would a responsible government prioritize taxing an impoverished population over of investing in untapped natural resources? Why would a government prioritize investment in propaganda over investment in infrastructural development and social welfare?

As people living in a developing economy our priority should be on development of the economy and not necessarily growth figure. Economic growth is not economic development. And even if there is growth, it is meaningless if it has no trickle-down effect? It is useless if the benefits are externalized. Growth that is not accompanied with a significant reduction in the underdevelopment indicators is no growth. The reform that is crowding out investment is economic sabotage.

Thus, the Tinubu government’s reform has not done anything to develop our abundant natural resources, reverse the adverse operating environment, reduce the cost of doing business in Nigeria, remove the difficulty in sourcing foreign exchange, improve the deteriorating value of the naira, reduce the crippling energy cost and make-up for the huge infrastructure gap or improve the welfare of the average citizens. But rather it has made the nation’s economic situation worse and hence, the verdict of no reform. Therefore, I must state without equivocation that anyone saying that Tinubu’s government is doing economic reform is either a hypocrite or a hear-say analyst expressing the opinion of others.

Gozie Irogboli
(goziei@yahoo.com)
An economist, banker, a novelist and public policy analyst