Africa
Nigeria’s Economic Stability Does Translate to Progress -By Tife Owolabi
Some Economists recognize that Nigeria is on a path toward macroeconomic stability and diversification, with non-oil exports and improved fiscal indicators providing momentum. But for many Nigerians—especially lower-income and rural communities—the pains of soaring inflation, joblessness, and subsidy removal are very real. The key lingering question: Can reform-driven macro gains trickle down soon enough to alleviate hardship among the masses? Your guess is as good as mine.
Economic stability is NOT the same as economic progress! Stability just means the economy isn’t wildly fluctuating, like a fever that’s under control but still requires treatment.
Think of it like this: when Nigeria’s economy was hemorrhaging under the previous admin, the Tinubu regime stepped in and controlled the bleeding (aka stabilized the economy). Now, the patient (Nigeria’s economy) needs to recover from the loss and rebuild.
And let’s look at the numbers! The dollar used to skyrocket to ₦1800 when Tinubu took office, but now it’s stabilized around ₦1538. That’s progress, but we need more! The removal of subsidies and defending the naira has freed up resources to put the economy on the right path.
BUT, economic stability is just the foundation. We need sustained growth, improved living standards, and increased economic opportunities to achieve true economic progress!
So, what’s next? We need policies that drive innovation, investment, and job creation. We need to ensure that the benefits of economic stability trickle down to the masses.
The question is, can the Tinubu regime’s economic reforms lead to meaningful progress for Nigerians, or will it just be a stabilization act? Let’s keep watching!
As we are told Tinubu inherited
– $4 billion in forex reserves
– $7 billion in unmet obligations
– ₦30 trillion Ways and Means debt
– A debt servicing burden consuming 96% of government revenue
Today under President Tinubu
– Forex reserves have climbed toward $40 billion
– Oil production rose from under 1 mbpd to 1.8 mbpd
– $14 billion in national debt and $7 billion in forex obligations have been cleared
– GDP grew 3.13 percent in Q1 2025, with a 7 per cent growth target by 2027
All these translate to economic stability which provides a foundation for economic progress, but stability like I said economy stability alone does not guarantee progress. A stable economy can still experience stagnation or slow growth if it lacks the drivers of progress, such as innovation, investment, and structural reforms.
Economic stability – refers to a state of low inflation, stable employment, and steady economic growth, where the economy is not experiencing extreme fluctuations. It provides a foundation for businesses and individuals to operate with confidence.
So, the statement of Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, WTO DG, suggests that economic stability is more closely related to managing economic fluctuations, such as mitigating the effects of recessions or boom-and-bust cycles, rather than driving long-term economic progress. In other words, stability is necessary but not sufficient for progress.
But the real issue is Economic progress, which on the other hand, implies sustained economic growth, improved living standards, and increased economic opportunities over time. It involves structural changes, innovation, and investments that enhance productivity and competitiveness.
The recent rebasing by Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics lifted the estimated GDP by about 30%, now placing the 2024 GDP at ₦372.8 trillion (~US$244 billion) thanks to the inclusion of digital services, pensions, and the informal sector—where most Nigerians work(Financial Times).
Modest Growth, Ambitious Targets
The economy grew by a modest 3.1% in Q1 2025, despite these optimistic revisions. President Tinubu has advocated for hitting 7% annual growth by 2027, while the World Bank forecasts around 3.8% by 2027(Reuters, Financial Times).
Fiscal Outlook & Budget Challenges
IMF Calls for Budget Recalibration
The IMF has cautioned that Nigeria’s 2025 budget may be unrealistic—it assumes an oil price of US$75/barrel, while current prices hover around US$68. The Fund urges realistic adjustments, tighter fiscal discipline, and accelerated implementation of cash transfers to aid vulnerable populations(Reuters).
Balance of Payments Improvement
Nigeria posted a $6.8 billion surplus in 2024, reversing years of deficits, thanks to policy reforms, export growth, remittances, and reduced fuel imports(Reuters).
Persistent Inflation & Tight Monetary Policy
Inflation remains high—above 24% in early 2025. In Q1, it was rebased to 24.2%, down from 34.8% with the old base, but still painful for consumers. Interest rates remain elevated (~27.5%) to manage inflation(Diaspora Lens – All Over The World, Financial Times, Reuters).
Impacts on the Masses
Cost of Living Is Soaring
Food prices have skyrocketed. By mid-2025, a single pot of Jollof rice cost an average of ₦27,528—about 40% of the new minimum monthly wage.
Fuel Subsidy Removal Hits Hard
Rural communities like Ngwoma in the Niger Delta are grappling with high transport costs, unemployment, and limited access to healthcare and markets after subsidies were scrapped.
Poverty Deepens
According to the World Bank, poverty has risen sharply. As of a recent update, about 129 million Nigerians—over half the population—are living below the national poverty line(Reddit).
Some Economists recognize that Nigeria is on a path toward macroeconomic stability and diversification, with non-oil exports and improved fiscal indicators providing momentum. But for many Nigerians—especially lower-income and rural communities—the pains of soaring inflation, joblessness, and subsidy removal are very real. The key lingering question: Can reform-driven macro gains trickle down soon enough to alleviate hardship among the masses? Your guess is as good as mine.
Tife Owolabi is a Development Studies researcher and writes from Yenagoa, Bayelsa state
