The Obi-Kwankwaso Alliance: Puff or Pith? -By Ugoji Egbujo

Pith. Some say wistfully that the alliance has come four years late.

Its optimistic supporters insist that a ticket promising equity, unity and prosperity is never late. It was first mooted in 2022, but bloated egos would not let it thrive. Fortunately, the last elections cleared some delusions. Perhaps the alliance has arrived at its appointed time.

After the 2023 presidential election—which Peter Obi still insists he won—it became clear and urgent that he and his supporters needed a credible inroad into the Muslim north. That north-south mathematical bridge could not be built by an idealistic neophyte, no matter how bombastic his ideas or fervent his loyalty. No amount of philanthropic projects could carve it. The negative stereotypes and ethnic suspicions accumulated over decades required political bulldozing and the reconstruction of concrete bridges. Yet with the Obidients, an emotional bunch, Obi had to be careful. Many had threatened to abandon him if he sacrificed purity for naked expediency. They wanted a political marriage that would enhance electability, but they did not want Obi playing second fiddle to a politician with a moral hunchback. The cohesion of the Obidiency hung in delicate balance.

After the 2023 polls, the ruling party began a slow, coordinated liquidation of the opposition. Its dirty fingerprints were visible in every political crisis. Peter Obi’s Labour Party was an early target; it soon became a terribly unstable platform, riddled with moles proclaiming support for Tinubu while struggling to seize the steering wheel. Judiciary-assisted destabilisation spread across all major opposition parties. Many politicians were bullied, broken or bought. They flocked into the ruling party in droves. As the country drifted toward a one-party state, the remnant opposition needed urgent unification to resist the destructive homogenisation of political diversity. Obi and the Obidients required a marriage. They had to seek a new tent. Perhaps the gods were not slumbering after all because at some pointed it seemed Kwankwaso was a lost defected cause .

The Obidients had long bragged that Obi was different. Having left the pond for a stormy sea full of sharks, Obi’s supporters dreaded he would be swallowed by the currents and lose his moral appeal. Yet 2027, against a sitting and shrewd incumbent obsessed with total political control, would demand more than a determined solo effort. They could justify his presence in an orisirisi coalition with leaders whose characters they had once mocked. But they feared that pairing him with a perceived “contaminated” politician would damage the brand. This tension between idealism and pragmatism had to be resolved without fracture.

The best path to defeating Tinubu might have been a pairing with Atiku, but Atiku would not inspire the Obidients; to them he was simply Northern Tinubu. With Kwankwaso, they breathed a sigh of relief. They share much with the Kwankwasiyya, whose energy flows from their leader’s commitment to the emancipation of the downtrodden. Both are organic movements . Vote-laden political juggernauts that do not need to be pushed with cash and do not run on rice. Kwankwaso isn’t just a more compatible ally, the Kwankwassiyya and the Obidiency could prove a profound synergism.

On Kwankwaso’s part, 2023 must have been eye-opening, even humbling. Whatever national clout he imagined he and his Kwankwasiyya possessed outside Kano was not reflected on the electoral scoreboard. Yet with Kano still in his pocket, his beautiful bride shakara and political dreams could not be curtailed. His first recourse was Tinubu. It did not work. He never made the cabinet. But the twerking did not stop. At some point it appeared promiscuous , he began to look like a chameleon. His opportunistic ambivalence depreciated his reputation in opposition circles. His movement seemed a private vehicle for personal ambition in Kano, with limited national vision. The bemused opposition wondered how the self-proclaimed leader of the talakawa would explain Tinubu and the spreading misery and hunger to his own suffering followers. After his protégé, the Kano governor, defected to Tinubu and was branded a Judas, Kwankwaso’s flirtation with the ruling party appeared to have outlived its usefulness. The man who had demanded an arm and a leg had lost bargaining power.

Out in the cold, with his political dynasty in peril and Kano no longer securely in his kitty, 2027 loomed. Pride could no longer obscure reality. Yet he still nursed an eye on 2031. The situation demanded urgency and clarity—a local and national strategy without Tinubu. The first step was to stop being elusive and fully commit to the opposition coalition. The second was to yield to Obasanjo and others who sought to unite the Kwankwasiyya with the Obidients. Pitching with the strongest political movement in the south and Middle Belt could prove useful now and in the future. As that unity gains traction, the broader coalition leaders must now contend with the disastrous prospect of losing the two most vibrant movements in their fold. The Obi-Kwankwaso movement was deliberately triggered early to create its own gravitational pull before the primaries. The old coalition had an Obidiency exceptionalism problem; it had dismissed the Obidiency’s insistence on Obi as impertinent. With the Obi-Kwankwaso movement, such an outright dismissal now seems imprudent.

As Obi and Kwankwaso now attend coalition events hand in hand like partners, while their supporters sing like wedding guests, it looks almost inevitable that they will appear together on the ballot of a political party. Their brightest chances lie within the opposition coalition backed by Atiku, Amaechi and other stalwarts. Any vote-splitting would only help Tinubu, as it did in 2023. But if the Obi-Kwankwaso movement chooses to go it alone in a three-horse race, they are not necessarily doomed. Their supporters might grow even more passionate.

They would need to ignite the imagination of the youth and create sufficient deterrence against electoral theft. Will Kwankwaso stay glued to the ticket and fight electoral theft to the end? In other words, what is the degree of fidelity in this alliance? Time will tell

The Obi-Kwankwaso movement promises a new beginning. Both leaders are deeply trusted by their followers, who vouch for their character and competence. They command perhaps the most inspired political supporters in Nigeria. Time will tell whether the alliance can do the spadework required to win—and protect—a presidential election victory. To instil confidence in the electorate and break the grip of apathy, Obi and Kwankwaso must shed their reticence. The country needs a political revolution. On election day, the electorate is unlikely to take risks for timid candidates. In the coming months, both men must show Nigerians glimpses of the bold and transformational leadership the nation desperately needs. They must lead from the front—with their lifestyles, their passion, and their defiance against every appearance of tyranny. Both bring self-propelled movements. The question is no longer puff or pith. It is whether they will now deliver the substance they have promised, before, during , and after the elections.