Africa Is Watching: Will Nigeria Kill Or Save Its Largest Private Industrial Project? -By Mohammed Basah

When a union issues a directive that cripples an industrial asset, it is not only exercising power — it is choosing to operate outside the rules. The standoff between PENGASSAN and Dangote Refinery is no ordinary labour conflict. At stake is Nigeria’s credibility, energy security, and its claim that large-scale industrial projects can thrive here. The law is clear: unions in essential services cannot simply shut down supply lines without following prescribed procedures. PENGASSAN’s apparent bypassing of those rules places the refinery on the brink, and threatens to undo its promise before it has fully taken shape.

The Trade Disputes Act (TDA) sets out exactly what must happen before workers in essential services may lawfully cease work. In particular, Section 18 demands that parties must seek to resolve disputes through negotiation, mediation, and arbitration before any strike or stoppage. Strikes — or the shutting of valves — in essential sectors must follow that strict path. Then, Section 41 of the TDA mandates that any worker in essential service who stops work must give fifteen days’ notice to employer and government, unless they can prove they were unaware that closing operations would substantially deprive the community of an essential service. (TDA Section 41(1)).

These rules exist for good reason: a refinery is not like a picket line in hospitality. Its operations connect to national supply chains, foreign exchange balances, fuel distribution, and ultimately, the stability of the naira. When PENGASSAN ordered the halt of crude and gas supply to Dangote — without any public record that the 15-day notice was given or that all mediation/arbitration steps were exhausted — it risked acting as a rogue actor above the law.

Indeed, recent court injunctions restraining union leaders from blocking supplies suggest that the judiciary already finds merit in the claim that PENGASSAN’s actions skirt legal boundaries. Yet in public statements, union leaders justify the shutdowns as necessary pushback against alleged mass dismissals of unionised workers and what they see as a betrayal of promise. On their side, Dangote management insists it must preserve operational integrity, guard against sabotage, and protect shareholder capital in the midst of global margins and foreign exchange volatility.

Both sides carry legitimate concerns. Workers deserve fair treatment and enforcement of union rights; investors demand certainty and rule of law. But in this conflict, PENGASSAN’s approach is legally untenable. The law does not permit unilateral shutdowns in essential services while alternative dispute resolution is ongoing, and while notice obligations remain unmet.

More than that, this refinery is not just a factory: it is Nigeria’s industrial reputation on the line. We must force ourselves to see it as a shared national asset. For years, the country has imported refined petroleum despite exporting crude — bleeding forex for lack of domestic refining capacity. Dangote built one of the most ambitious refineries on the continent precisely to reverse that paradox. If this refinery fails now, the message will be chilling: even when we build, we cannot protect.

Yes, the union is powerful. Yes, the grievances may be real. But rule of law is higher. If the law means nothing, then industrial peace means nothing. If unions may break the rules when pressured, management might act with impunity when threatened, and governance systems unravel.

We cannot accept a system where a union, by decree, shuts down oil production without due process. That is tantamount to running a nation hostage. The President, as commander-in-chief and guardian of stability, must intervene decisively. He must compel all parties to resume fair process and stop any action that threatens national supply or economic order. He must declare that no actor, whether corporate or union, is above legal obligation.

Nigeria owes itself (and Africa) a demonstration that we can build and manage projects of scale in a lawful, disciplined way. Dangote Refinery represents one of our clearest chances. It is too valuable to collapse under dispute tactics. The refinery must not die because we treat laws as optional.

We must demand: follow the protocol. Respect workers. Protect infrastructure. Build trust and enforce accountability. Only then will Nigeria prove that its industrial dreams are not built on fumes and fantasies, but on integrity, process, and shared resolve.

Mohammed Basah is a social-impact communications strategist and development advocate. He is the Founder/CEO of Ideas Foundry Limited and Chief Curator of Entrepreneurship Tonic, a digital platform for inspiring and training young and aspiring entrepreneurs. He also serves as Programmes Director of the PROVOQIT Transparency and Accountability Project, focusing on governance, civic engagement and youth economic empowerment.