Dissecting The Protest, National Imperative And Way Forward, by Tony Osakpamwan

Protest is a fundamental right of citizens. It is a tool to draw the attention of; or call any government to order. Protests are bound to happen when citizens are under the cushion, smothered by those sitting on top of them. However, even the best planned protests, despite good intensions for it to catalyse positive societal change, can go wrong. This is especially so, in a country like Nigeria where a peaceful protest can easily degenerate to violence. A little stroll down memory lane with me as we recall the Babangida must go, and Abacha must go protests in the late 1980s and early 1990s. These protests were countered by loyalists of the governments of the day, and armed security forces. There was also the Occupy Nigeria protest in 2012 as well as the EndSARS protest of 2020 which is still very fresh in our mind. Taking this memory stroll and reviewing how each protest ended, leaves a bitter taste in our mouths.

EndSARS was a protest staged by Nigerian Youths against the brutality of the special police unit, SARS (Special Anti-Robbery Squad).The purpose was germane until it metamorphosed into a full blown anti-government protest.The belief in many quarters is that the government in a clandestine mode used non-state actors to counter the EndSARS protestwith subsequent loss of lives.The attack at Alausa, Lagos by thugs/hoodlums allegedly backed by politicians and the killings at Lekki toll gate by suspected agents of the state left a sour taste in our history. The wounds are yet to heal.

Why is a nationwide protest been planned in Nigeria? Who are those planning the protest? Why are government officials scared of the protest? Why is the government running helter-skelter over the planned protest scheduled for 1^st-10^th August 2024 across the nation. Let`s go on this ride together. Right from the moment the President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu made his record, “subsidy is gone!” inauguration speech, Nigeria hasn`t been the same.  The good people of Nigeria have been hit from all sides with unprecedented high cost of living –food, transportation, and other essential goods and services. The follow-up floating and devaluation of the Naira has also not helped matters. For the sort of import dependent monolithic economy in Nigeria, the fiscal outlook since May 29^th, 2023, has been stormy with inflation shootingto roof tops. Many citizens are hit to their barest minimum ostensibly as a result of the fuel subsidy removal by fiat.

Looking at the fuel subsidy removal in May 2023, could the process have been done differently? With hindsight, could the federal government have done it piece-meal? Was the `fiatic` pronouncement by the President on inauguration day without a careful evaluation too hasty? Was the `yoyo` reason of preventing smuggling of petrol to neighbouring countries enough justification to increase pump price of petrol?

Focusing on the proposed protest tagged #endbadgovernance which have been trending across the nation in the last few weeks; economic, political, and social commentators are propounding diverse opinions on the veracity or otherwise of the protest. The debate hinges on the possible escalation of the protest to a full blown conflagration in the country. On the flip side, protagonist of the protest contend that the sponsors are legion. In a now viral post on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), Area Fada, Charly Boy Oputa listed the 40 sponsors of the planned protest including hunger, poverty, inflation, fuel pump price, high cost of governance et al. Charly Boy concluded, “we are not begging for power because power belongs to the people and we the people are here to say enough is enough”.

Antagonists of the protests are of the view that the government should be given more time to solve the myriads of problems facing the nation. They posit that one year of the current administration of President Bola Tinubu is not enough to judge the economic policies of the government. They therefore ask for `more time` for the government to put things in order. They opine that the protest can snowball into a whirlwind of monumental destructive proportion. They say there could be mass looting of private property and businesses, banks, and other public infrastructure.  

On the other hand, advocates of the protest say the government of the day is not sincere. They argue that in good conscience, the administration of President Bola Tinubu has not done enough in the last 14 months. They point to the bloated federal cabinet of 48 ministers and their long retinue of aides. They outline the extremely high cost of governance at the federal and state levels. They mention the billions upon billions of naira budgeted for renovations, and buildings for top government officials. They point to the bogus allowances and benefits being collected by elected public officials who claim to be servants of the people. The advocates of the protest are of the opinion that the government has neither shown enough commit mentnor identified enough with the plight of the ordinary citizens. Protagonists of the protest also argue that the ordinary citizens have made enough sacrifices while those in power at the federal, and state level are seemingly immune from the sufferings and harsh economic realities of the day. They also point to insensitive display of nauseating affluence and lavish megalomanic lifestyle by the political class in Nigeria.

The Nigerian government introduced oil subsidy to cushion the effect of rising global oil prices in the 1970s. The Olusegun Obasanjo military regime formalised the subsidy in 1977 when it promulgated the Price Control Act which regulated prices of items including fuel. For decades, Nigerians have observed the fluctuating journey of fuel prices, spanning from a humble 6 kobo (k) in 1973 to over 600 naira per litre today in 2024. Apologies to the non-data driven folks amongst us. For those who may not know, let me take you down memory as to how we got here. Gen. Yakubu Gowon (1973): 6k to 8.45k (40.83%), Gen. Murtala Muhammed (1976): 8.45k to 9k (6.5%), Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo (1978): 9k to 15.3k (70%), Alhaji Shagari (1982): 15.3k to 20k (30.72%), Gen. Ibrahim Babangida (1986): 20k to 39.5k (97.5%), (1988): 39.5k to 42k (6.33%), (1989): 42k to 60k (42.86%), (1991): 60k to 70k (16.67%), Interim President Earnest Shonekan (1993): 70k to N5 (614.29%), Gen. Sani Abacha (1993): N5 to N3.25k (price dropped 35%), (1994): N3.25k to N15 (361.54%), (1994): N15 to N11 (price dropped 26.67%), Gen. Abdulsalam Abubakar (1998): N11 to N25 (127.27%), (1999): N25 to N20 (price dropped 25%), President Olusegun Obasanjo (2000): N20 to N30 (50%), (2000): N30 to N22 (price drops 26.67%), (2002): N22 to N26 (18.18%), (2003): N26 to N42 (61.54%), (2004): N42 to N50 (19.05%), (2004): N50 to N65 (30%), (2007): N65 to N75 (15.39%), President Musa Yar’ Adua (2007): Back to N65 (price drops 15.39%), President Goodluck Jonathan (2012): N65 to N141 (116.92%), (2012): N141 to N97 (price drops 31.21%), (2015): N97 to N87 (price drops 10.31%), President Muhammadu Buhari (2015-2023): N87 to N165 per litre (124% increase), President Bola Tinubu (2023) : N165 to N617 plus (373% increase).

How then can the current impasse be resolved amicably? The answer is very simple. First, the government needs to take a second look at the fuel subsidy removal. Being the major cause of the inflationary trend in the economy, a reversal of this policy is a clear antidote. The fuel subsidy removal has greatly distorted the macro-economic environment with its concomitant ripple effect. The prices of food and other essential commodities have spiralled out of control. Where an outright reversal of the fuel subsidy removal is not possible, then a reduction can be done. Government needs to put together a crack team of eggheads, neutral, apolitical, very honest, knowledgeable Nigerians to examine all the nuances around the fuel subsidy debacle and proffer quick solutions.

Secondly, the government must demonstrate to the people that they hear them, they see them, and they are willing to engage with them. Instead of spending millions trying to prevent the protest while simultaneously on a major witch hunting mission to find those sponsoring the protest, the Government of the day must engage with all humility and listen to the voice of the people. Together, solutions can be fashioned on the long and short term. But in the current situation where the perceived body language of the government of the day is the proverbial one of the ‘man with mushrooms growing out of his ears’, the people will be grossly irritated, and we know what the collective irritation of over 200 million people can mean.

Thirdly, the federal government owned refineries in Warri, Kaduna and Port-Harcourt must begin to work. It is disgraceful that Nigeria, the 6^th largest crude oil producer in the world cannot refine this essential commodity at home. The importation of petrol has become the go-to cash-cow for some thrifty business men and women in the country. A new breed of multi-billionaires are springing up like roses in the garden on a daily basis. The recent outburst by no other than Africa`s richest man, Aliko Dangote is a pointer to the underhand dealings in the oil sector in Nigeria. Dangote refinery cannot even receive a full complement of crude oil supply from the Nigeria National Petroleum Company Ltd. The Dangote refinery have had to be importing from abroad. Something certainly is not right somewhere. So, for a big player like Dangote to come out blazing shows that indeed, Nigeria can happen to anyone. People are asking if really, there is an elite cabal that wants the country to perpetually import refined petroleum products. The new Dangote refinery has a capacity to process 650,000barrels of crude oil per day. So, are there persons within our political and economic eco-system who do not want the Dangote refinery to function? Only time will tell. The summary is that as long as Nigeria continues to import petroleum products (petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel), the economy will be the worst for it.

As for the planned nationwide protests, it is important for the organisers to keep their eyes on the ball. They should not allow it to be hijacked by unscrupulous elements. On their part, the security agencies should ensure that the rights of citizens to peaceful protest as guaranteed by the extant laws of the land is not impeded. Nigerians cannot be denied of their fundamental human rights. Peaceful protesters should not be seen as enemies of the government. Many of those in power today led protests in past governments and they were not hounded. Nigeria belongs to us all and no Nigerian is more Nigerian than another. We are all stakeholders. Government at all levels should therefore be responsive to the cries of citizens. Away from all the rhetoric, both the states and federal governments must cut down the ballooning cost of governance. It is just too much and of unpatriotically embarrassing proportions that while millions of Nigerians wallow in multidimensional poverty, a few of us, who assume ‘rulership’ of our nation, are frittering away our collective patrimony on the rising cost of governing the same poor Nigerians who have become their spectators. What goes up my people, must come down. The cost of governance in Nigeria needs to start obeying gravity. That is the only way, wethe ordinary people of Nigeria willknow and begin to perceive that we are all in it together. I come in peace. May Nigeria Succeed.

Dr Agbons is Lead, Institute of Leadership and Good Governance @www.twin2.org