Ekiti State: What? Who Will Upset The Applecart? -By Abiodun KOMOLAFE

In a Special State Broadcast on Tuesday, Governor Biodun Abayomi Oyebanji of Ekiti State appealed for peace and orderliness ahead of the 2026 governorship election. While condemning recent political thuggery, Oyebanji, popularly known as BAO, stressed his unwavering commitment to protecting lives and property, stating directly: “My aspiration is not worth the precious blood of any Ekiti person.”

The governor’s call for peace and stability was a direct response to a familiar political challenge: a surge in negative media reports and public scrutiny. For Oyebanji, protecting life is a moral imperative that supersedes political office, as electoral violence can cause widespread harm and societal instability.

That said, the conventional wisdom is that BAO is virtually strolling his way into a deserved second term. While this may be the case, history has shown that it is always possible, though unlikely, to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. But, as the Yoruba proverb aptly states, “Àgbàrá òjò kò l’óun ò n’ílé wó, onílé ni kò níí gbà fun” (The intent of a heavy storm and flood is to wreak havoc and that of those to be affected is to prevent it).

In light of this, it is crucial for Oyebanji to address any internal issues, especially within the state chapter of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). While the governor has worked diligently to ensure the party remains coherent and focused, the ambitions of individuals cannot be discounted. Even within the governor’s inner circle, some will have their own aspirations. This dynamic is a common challenge in politics. BAO will therefore need a core group of loyal and trusted supporters to protect his interests and ensure stability.

Although securing a second term is not a foregone conclusion, there’s a strong case for continuity in Ekiti State. Oyebanji has begun several widely commended initiatives that he should be allowed to complete. As of now, within the APC and the assortment of opposition parties, there is no coherent, let alone convincing, alternative programme.

The opposition’s current stance appears limited to simply affirming their democratic right to contest, which is insufficient to mount a credible challenge. This weakness, combined with the conventional wisdom that the governor is not perceived as non-performing or underperforming, makes a strong case for continuity. His not doing so would likely result in a disruptive ‘begin again’ cycle, moving from boom-to-bust. Ekiti deserves better than that!

Oyebanji’s achievements reflect a strategic focus on enhancing intellectual capital through investments in education and public service. Rather than relying on a large economy or oil wealth, his policies have been geared toward fiscal prudence, accountability, and a meritocratic approach to state affairs. This has translated into tangible results, as seen in the state’s top-tier ranking in the governance index.

Unlike states whose high scores might be attributed to vast natural resources or sheer economic size, Ekiti’s success is rooted in its human-centric approach to governance. This is particularly remarkable given its relative lack of such endowments, with the state effectively utilizing human and intellectual assets to achieve long-term growth and stability.

“Politics is never just about elections. It is about people, their culture, values, grievances, and their sense of fairness. When one looks closely, one sees that politics is a reflection of society itself, which is why it makes sense to speak of the sociology of politics. In Ekiti State, this is clearer than anywhere else. The way politics is played in the ‘Fountain of Knowledge’ is tied deeply to how the people think, relate to one another, and respond to questions of power, fairness, and identity.

“In this landscape, the political environment revolves around Oyebanji, whose position appears unshakable. He enjoys the backing of virtually all the major stakeholders in the state’s politics, including every living past governor. The collective support of these elder statesmen helps to shape the state’s future and serves as a consultative influence on the current government’s power.

“Furthermore, all members of the National and State Houses of Assembly from Ekiti stand behind BAO, as do the traditional rulers, who serve as both custodians of culture and moral voices in the land. He also has the endorsement of respected elders, the unions, and key organizations across the state. In a society like Ekiti, where endorsements from elders and monarchs carry deep weight, this kind of support is massive.”

It is also important to note that The Nigeria Union of Local Government Employees (NULGE) has demonstrated its “unshaken confidence” in the governor’s leadership by donating ₦10 million to his campaign. This collective gesture, along with the support of the Local Government Service Commission, is a sign of appreciation for his administration’s achievements.

These include payment of salary and gratuity arrears, regular payment of deductions, and the implementation of a new minimum wage. This broad backing suggests the governor has secured the support of a key constituency, which may pose a significant challenge to any opposition.

Make no mistake, Ekiti 2026 is shaping up to be a closely watched contest, with potential challenges brewing on the horizon. Despite Oyebanji’s strong support base, internal party dynamics, opposition strategies and economic factors could play a significant role in shaping the outcome. Who will upset the applecart? Could it be a discontented APC member, an opposition party candidate, or a rising politician?

To manage these complexities and secure his position, Oyebanji should strategically build coalitions with key social and economic groups in the state, including the agro-allied economy, markets, the informal sector, and professional groups, all under the banner of ‘Continuing Ekiti’s Forward March to Prosperity.’

To address infrastructural deficits in the state, BAO should convey a clear message with short-, medium-, and long-term goals to improve the lives of the residents. This will be supported by facts and figures. Such a clear presentation should compel those who wish to unseat him to present their own detailed alternative positions.

In 1983, the opposition in both Lagos and Imo States illustrated this point, as they struggled to present a coherent, let alone a convincing, alternative to the incumbent governors, Lateef Jakande and Sam Mbakwe. Both governors had established a reputation for being pro-people, which made them formidable opponents. Their success was not so much a result of personal charisma but rather their ability to effectively communicate to the electorate that they were the most capable leaders to safeguard the people’s interests.

Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) also have a crucial role to play, particularly in ensuring a level playing field and fair play among all parties, including the police and the electoral umpire. Additionally, the governor should collaborate with CSOs as they are in the best position to independently present his scorecard, identify areas for improvement, and suggest viable solutions.

As 2026 nears, Oyebanji must increase his efforts and develop a clear media strategy. This effort requires persistence and consistency. At a time like this, as at all times, it is the duty of the media to be dispassionate and analytical, basing their reports on facts and figures.

Real change requires moving beyond platitudes to forging partnerships that can withstand the political pressures and factionalism that have historically been the norm. That’s what President Bola Tinubu is doing at the centre. However, the pursuit of significant change will inevitably lead to resentment and opposition, even from those within who benefited from the old way of doing things.

In the final analysis, despite the potential for internal friction, and based on all political scenarios, endorsements, and his performance, the coast appears clear for Oyebanji’s return for a second term, ceteris paribus.

May the Lamb of God, who takes away the sin of the world, grant us peace in Nigeria!

*KOMOLAFE wrote from Ijebu-Jesa, Osun State, Nigeria (ijebujesa@yahoo.co.uk; 08033614419 – SMS only)