Osun Decides: What Will Determine Adeleke, Oyebamiji, Salaam and Others’ Chances Tomorrow

OSOGBO — The stage is set for Saturday’s Osun State governorship election, with 15 candidates on the ballot and three prominent contenders — incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke of Accord, APC’s Bola Oyebamiji and ADC’s Najeem Salaam — dominating the political contest.

The outcome is likely to be shaped by several factors, including incumbency, political structures, popularity, achievements in office, federal influence, endorsements, grassroots strength and the ability of each candidate to convert support into actual votes.

Of the 2,339,233 registered voters in the state, about 1.9 million who collected their PVCs are expected to determine the winner across 30 local government areas, 323 wards and 3,763 polling units.

Adeleke banks on incumbency

Adeleke’s biggest asset is his position as governor. He has secured the support of major labour unions and is pointing to his administration’s infrastructure projects as evidence of performance.

The governor also retains considerable influence in Ede and Osun-West, while sections of the PDP and some former Omisore loyalists have moved into the Accord camp.

His administration says it has completed more than 300 kilometres of roads across the state, including dualised roads in Ilesa, Iwo, Ede and Ila-Orangun.

But the incumbent is not without vulnerabilities. Opposition parties have attacked his record on employment, education, health, agriculture, commerce and industry. Allegations of nepotism in recruitment have also become a major campaign issue.

Oyebamiji counts on APC machinery

For Oyebamiji, the strength of the APC structure and support from President Tinubu and other influential party figures could be decisive.

The APC candidate has attracted several major political figures from Osun-East, including Fadahunsi, Wole Oke, Sanya Omirin and Taofeek Ajilesoro. He has also received backing from former governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola and other former PDP leaders.
Omisore’s support is another factor. His influence in the Ile-Ife axis could help the APC candidate, particularly given his role in the 2018 election when his support contributed to Oyetola’s victory over Adeleke.

However, Oyebamiji must contend with criticism linked to the previous APC government under which he served, particularly the controversial modulated salary policy and outstanding salary payments.

Salaam seeks upset

Salaam is presenting himself as an alternative to the two dominant political parties. His 10-point agenda focuses on workers’ welfare and sustainable electricity to support industrialisation.

His links with former governor Aregbesola have given him access to grassroots politicians who left the APC, while his origin in Osun-West gives him a natural base in the district.

But the same Aregbesola connection could become a weakness because of lingering resentment over salary and pension issues from the former governor’s tenure. Observers also question whether the ADC possesses enough statewide structure and resources to compete effectively.

Osun-West could hold the key

One of the most interesting features of the election is that all three leading candidates come from Osun-West. Adeleke is from Ede-North and Ede-South, Oyebamiji from Irewole, while Salaam is from Ejigbo.

That makes Osun-West a potentially decisive battleground, particularly because of the large voting population across the district.

Beyond regional calculations, control of local government structures, the influence of traditional rulers and the mobilisation abilities of political elites could determine how votes are distributed. Traditional rulers have themselves become divided along party lines, although the Ooni of Ife has maintained his position as a father to all and stayed away from partisan politics.

Violence and security raise concern

The election has also been overshadowed by violence. Two APC members were attacked in Esa-Oke, with Oladele Ayegbo killed and Taiwo Oluwatobi injured. The police confirmed the attack took place around 11pm on Wednesday.

Security agencies have responded with a major deployment. Police said 15,000 officers and 31 Commissioners of Police have been deployed across the state, while helicopters and drones will conduct surveillance.

President Tinubu has equally assured voters that adequate security has been provided and urged residents to vote without fear.

“Let me assure all Osun indigenes that adequate security has been provided all over the state to ensure people come out to cast their votes for the candidate of their choice without any fear or intimidation. Feel very free to cast your votes for the candidate of your choice,” he said.

As Osun heads to the polls, the contest will ultimately come down to which candidate can best translate endorsements, political structures, regional support, achievements, campaign narratives and grassroots mobilisation into votes.

With the three major contenders drawing strength from different blocs, the final result could hinge on turnout and the distribution of votes across the three senatorial districts.

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