Painful Tinubu Reforms Putting Nigeria’s Economy on Recovery Path — NRS

ABUJA — Nigeria’s economy is gradually recovering from severe macroeconomic challenges following the implementation of a series of difficult reforms by President Bola Tinubu’s administration, the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) has said.

An internal report by the revenue service said the economy had moved “decisively from acute macroeconomic distress toward a more stable and increasingly resilient footing.”

The NRS said the Tinubu administration inherited four major economic problems: an unsustainable fuel subsidy system, an opaque foreign exchange regime, a poorly performing oil sector and a tax base “far below its potential.”

Although the reforms brought painful adjustments at the beginning, the NRS said the latest economic data suggested that the country was beginning to experience a broad-based recovery.

Among the positive indicators highlighted were declining inflation, stronger external reserves, increased oil output, improved balance of payments, higher tax revenue and stronger capital inflows.

Reserves rise to $51.9bn

According to the report, Nigeria’s external reserves rose dramatically from $3.99 billion in 2023 to $51.9 billion as of July 2026.

Economic growth also increased from 2.74 per cent in 2023 to 3.8 per cent during the first half of 2026.

The balance of payments, which stood at a $3.34 billion deficit, moved into a $2.38 billion surplus in the first quarter of 2026.

Nigeria’s trade position also recorded a significant improvement, moving from a marginal surplus of N44.7 billion to N7.55 trillion during the first quarter of 2026.

Oil output exceeds OPEC quota

The NRS said oil production had increased substantially under the reforms.

Output rose from approximately 1.2–1.3 million barrels per day in 2023 to 1.73 million barrels per day by July 2026, equivalent to 104 per cent of Nigeria’s OPEC quota.

The service also credited the naira-for-crude arrangement with the Dangote Refinery and other local refineries with helping Nigeria transition into a net exporter of petroleum products after decades of relying heavily on imports.

NGX market capitalisation jumps

The capital market was another area highlighted by the NRS.

The market capitalisation of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) rose from N30.36 trillion in 2023 to N161 trillion in 2026.

According to the report, the rally was partly driven by improved macroeconomic credibility, banking-sector recapitalisation and increased domestic institutional investment.

Tax revenue climbs to N27.1trn

Tax revenue more than doubled during the period under review.

Collections increased from N12.3 trillion in 2023 to N27.1 trillion as of July 2026.

The NRS attributed the growth to the digitisation of tax administration, four new tax reform laws, reforms within the revenue service and an executive order aimed at closing loopholes.

Minimum wage doubles

The report also stated that the minimum wage had doubled between 2023 and 2026.

It further cited UNICEF estimates showing that the number of out-of-school children had declined from 20 million to 18.3 million, attributing the improvement partly to government policies and incentives.

CNG conversion creates jobs

The government’s CNG programme was also listed among the developments supporting economic recovery.

More than 100,000 vehicles had reportedly been converted to CNG by 2026, with the programme attracting over $2 billion in investment and creating more than 10,000 jobs.

Agriculture gets bigger allocation

The NRS said government spending on agriculture had also increased, with the federal agricultural allocation rising from N228.4 billion in 2023 to N826.5 billion in the 2025 budget.

The interventions included releasing strategic grain reserves, establishing a N100 billion National Agricultural Development Fund, distributing fertiliser and expanding agricultural mechanisation.

The report said the Ministry of Agriculture estimated that food prices had fallen by about 50 per cent by March 2026.

However, it warned that agriculture would need several planting cycles before the various interventions could generate substantial increases in output.

Debt burden relative to GDP declines

Nigeria’s debt stock increased from N87.4 trillion in 2023 to N159.28 trillion in late 2025, according to the NRS.

However, the report noted that the debt-to-GDP ratio declined from 38 per cent in 2023 to 35.5 per cent in 2025 and 32.3 per cent in 2026.

The NRS described the decline as the first sustained reduction in more than a decade.

It also reported that debt servicing as a percentage of government revenue declined from 68 per cent to an IMF-projected 53 per cent.

The revenue service said the figures collectively indicate that the Nigerian economy is moving away from the acute distress of previous years and towards greater stability and resilience, despite the significant short-term pain associated with the reforms.

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