Osun Guber: Lessons From Ekiti – (1) -By Abiodun KOMOLAFE

The off-cycle election in Ekiti State, which secured the reelection of the incumbent governor, Biodun Abayomi Oyebanji (BAO), should be interpreted as a roadmap to things to come – and those changes are already upon us.

For the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), it was a mock examination passed creditably. The commission, however, must refine critical logistics, as well as the deployment and efficacy of its technological systems. Kudos to the umpire! The organization is beginning to show that it is capable of delivering a peaceful, tech-driven election.

The onus is now on the security forces to conduct a thorough investigation into the causes and effects of the sixteen recorded infractions across the state on Election Day. This is critical, more so as the off-cycle election on August 15 in Osun State promises to be a fiercely contested affair, unlike what we witnessed in Ekiti State. Deep reflection is needed as INEC, the political class, and civil society prepare for the impending contest.

Why did I say this? It is sad that the soundings from the ground give no signal that Osun will replicate Ekiti. Instead, flashpoints are increasing with terrifying regularity. These gathering storms expose a deeply troubling paradox at the heart of our democratic project – one that will test the ultimate resilience of our internal security architecture.

To right these wrongs, the police are better positioned by securing reported flashpoints and confronting the rising wave of kidnappings across the state. Having been forewarned, the security leadership needs to be proactive. Good conscience demands that the presence of both uniformed and undercover operatives be reinforced immediately. In this highly charged atmosphere, these heightened security measures are best paired with urgent simulations and mock exercises organized alongside political actors, election observers, and civil society.

The media should be encouraged and mobilized to play its part in voter education and public enlightenment. INEC should also ensure that the continuous voter registration exercise works smoothly, and that all outstanding voters are assisted in picking up their permanent voter cards (PVCs).

For the record, the voter turnout in Ekiti State was encouraging but sincerely insufficient. In view of Nigeria’s demographic weight, its massive investment in education, and the vibrancy of its media, voter turnout ought to surpass the continental average. It is therefore very necessary for the legitimacy of the electoral process that civic awareness be vigorously expanded. Given the shape and size of things to come in Osun, the turnout there should ideally be at least seven to eight percent higher than in Ekiti.

As has been observed elsewhere, Osun recorded some of the highest numbers of new registrants in the latest voter registration drive. Any serious party should interrogate these figures. What actually propelled this sudden uptick? Was it a coordinated mobilization? More importantly, who was behind it and what does the demographic breakdown look like? Make no mistake, whichever force is driving this surge has cemented the reality that the gubernatorial contest will be more complex to navigate and less compliant to control.

⁕To be concluded.

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