PRP Isn’t ANPP, 2027 Isn’t 2007 -By Sani Danaudi Mohammed

Bauchi State has earned its reputation as a political school where leaders are nurtured and real politics is learned on the ground, not in newspaper columns. Those who are true students of Bauchi’s political history understand that no two election cycles are photocopies of each other. The article published in Daily Trust today captioned “History Rhymes in Bauchi: Shehu Buba Umar Mirrors 2007 Sunnamy”by PRP National Publicity Secretary Mohammed Bello Ishaq, attempts to force a 2007 template onto 2027. That is not analysis. It is an attention-seeking content that ignores the reality on ground. PRP is not ANPP. 2007 is not 2027. And Bauchi voters are not spectators waiting to be told when history will repeat itself.

Let us revisit 2007 with facts, not folklore. The mass sunnamy in Bauchi was led by Mallam Isa Yuguda, who until then was a banker and economist that rose to become Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of a bank. He served as Minister of Transportation and Aviation under Former President Olusegun Obasanjo. Yuguda was a major force that brought former Governor Ahmad Adamu Mu’azu to power before their fallout in 2007.

Another decisive factor was that former and late President Muhammadu Buhari led the sunnamy in Bauchi State in 2007. Despite huge resources pulled by Mallam Isa Yuguda into the campaign of the ANPP, his team was backed by strong men like late Lele Raga, Senator Bala Abdulkadir Mohammed CON, now the executive Governor of Bauchi and many others who served as the strategic point men. That was a coalition of federal might, presidential cult followership, and elite consensus. None of those elements exist for PRP today.

The writer celebrates an “exodus” to PRP. Let us do the mathematics. The candidate of the PRP was able to pull only two APC LGA chairmen, Toro and Bauchi, to his bag after defecting among the members of the local governments working committee out of 20 local government areas. It was clear before the APC gubernatorial primaries that the aforementioned LGA party chairmen of Toro and Bauchi were his allies.

It is normal in politics for them to go his way. That is not a sunnamy. That is loyalty. The State Working Committee is intact and is working to return APC to Government House along with hundreds of party stakeholders across the nooks and crannies of Bauchi State. Although the two APC LGA chairmen left, their exit did not create any vacuum in APC as they have both been replaced with other agile and competent APC loyalists.

Currently, Bauchi State has Yakubu Adamu PhD, the immediate past Commissioner for Finance under APM; Senator Shehu Buba Umar under PRP; Senator Halliru Dauda Jika under ADC; Usman Sufi under PDP; and Mohammed Abdullahi Abubakar SAN under APC. Each above has their advantage, strongholds, and rallying points. But M. A. Abubakar SAN stands a better chance to convincingly win the next 2027 elections. This is not a field waiting for a reformer to inherit. It is a field where structures, records, and geography will decide.

Coming down to the other aspirants into State House of Assembly across the 31 state constituencies, and the three Senatorial aspirants under PRP, none can match their feet to the candidates APC is presenting in 2027. For example, APC is able to present credible candidates for Alkaleri/Kirfi, Bauchi, Bogoro/Dass/Tafawa Balewa, Darazo/Ganjuwa, Gamawa, Jama’are/Itas-Gadau, Katagum, Misau/Dambam, Ningi/Warji, Shira/Giade, Toro, and Zaki Federal Constituencies. All have unmatched records and history of winning elections. Elections in Bauchi are won from the polling unit up. You do not win Government House with two LGA chairmen and social media hashtags.

The most important thing the writer ignored is the late President Muhammadu Buhari factor in 2007 that gave ANPP a lifeline then. Buhari’s name alone pulled crowds that Yuguda’s money could not buy. The question the writer should have rhymed on is: Who is APC presenting in 2027? We will help him with few information to guide his further analysis. APC is presenting M. A. Abubakar SAN who was an elected Governor from 2015 to 2019. He lost due to conspiracies from others who then enjoyed the machinery of the presidency. One thing he left was allowing the elections instead of prioritizing his personal interests against the overall interest of the citizens of Bauchi State. That is a record of democratic temperament that resonates with Bauchi people who love freedom and resistance to pressure.

Again, the writer should have reflected on the past and told the world that the man APC is presenting won elections with over five hundred and fifty four thousand votes in 2015. In 2019, despite the intricacies, he secured over 500,000 votes. Can the writer deny this? Those who are familiar with history on how elections are won in Bauchi State can furnish the writer with facts that 2027 and 2007 are two different scenes with different factors playing out. You do not defeat 500,000 votes with the exit of two APC LGA chairmen. You do not erase 4 years of statewide structure with one senator’s defection.

ANPP in 2007 was a national platform with a presidential candidate who had cult followership in the North. PRP today is not a Tier-1 party in Nigeria. Shehu Buba Umar is a distinguished senator representing Bauchi South, renowned for interventions. To compare his move to Yuguda’s 2007 move is to compare a breeze to a hurricane. History does not rhyme when the instruments are different.

The PRP piece says “Bauchi people are known for their love of freedom and resistance to pressure.” Correct. That is why in 2019 they voted out an incumbent M.A. Abubakar when they felt aggrieved, and why in 2015 they voted him in with 554,000 votes against an incumbent PDP. Bauchi voters punish and reward based on performance, not propaganda. If 2027 is about “resistance to pressure,” then the question is: Who is applying what? M. A. Abubakar SAN submits himself to the judgment of Bauchi voters. He has a four-year record of governing the state, a history of winning with over 500,000 votes twice, and a reputation for allowing democratic processes to run their course. The people of Bauchi will decide what represents true choice.

The article cites Senator Buba’s visit to Bara town in Kirfi LGA after floods, that is his primary responsibility and owed them a duty , where he expressed sympathy and donated relief materials. M.A. Abubakar SAN governed Bauchi for four years. He built schools, upgraded hospitals, and managed the state without shutting down democratic processes. That is a governing record. Voters in 2027 will weigh a four-year record of administration against a Senate tenure of representation. Both are service, but only one has run Bauchi State.

This is the con game. Tell the people history is repeating itself so they stop asking hard questions. Tell them “Mujaddadi” is coming so they forget to ask: Where is the structure in 20 LGAs? Where are the Assembly candidates to win elections for PRP? Where is the presidential backing that ANPP had in 2007? Painting PRP logos on business structures is not polling data. Mobilizing on social media is not mobilizing at the ward collation center. Bauchi voters know this. They have seen movements rise and fall since Sa’adu Zungur. They will not buy 2007 nostalgia in a 2027 marketplace.

Unlike Kano in 2023 where NNPP rode on Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso’s cult followership and presidential ticket to deliver Abba Kabir Yusuf, PRP in Bauchi today lacks that same driver: Kwankwaso has no comparable grassroots structure or personal political base in Bauchi, The have no history of winning elections compared to APC gubernatorial candidate and Presidentialcandidate with command followership, leaving it without the presidential coattails and cult followership that powered the Kano victory.

So let us settle it. 2007 had Yuguda, Buhari, Kauran Bauchi and many strategic pointmen. 2027 has only the gubernatorial candidate, no Buhari, no Kauran Bauchi, and an APC with a former governor who polled 500,000+ votes twice. 2007 had ANPP as the national opposition vehicle. 2027 has PRP as a party that just got two APCLGAs chairmen to its fold. The State Working Committee of APC is intact. The Federal Constituency candidates of APC have histories of winning elections. The people of Bauchi will choose, yes. But they will choose based on 2027 facts, not 2007 feelings.

One phrase that still echoes in the political memory of Bauchi State from 2007 is the rallying cry “Akasa Asare.” It became the heartbeat of a movement led by Shehu Musa Gabam , now the National Chairman of the SDP. At the time, Gabam was the strategic thinker who assembled and energized a political team that effectively dominated the state’s terrain.This is for the purpose of history and posterity which shaped the 2007 campaign with messaging, mobilization, and grassroots penetration were so decisive that the campaign set the tone for that election cycle.

The PRP did not have a comparable strategic architecture or slogan-driven machinery in its team during that period, and the impact showed. Beyond PRP, there were several other political groups active in Bauchi then that also could not match the coordination and momentum Gabam’s team generated. History records that campaigns are won as much by ideas and structures as by candidates, and 2007 in Bauchi is still cited as a case study of how one team’s planning and messaging can define an election, while others without that edge struggle to shape the outcome.

Bauchi politics is too sophisticated for copy-and-paste analysis. That era is over, as the PRP writer said. The era of self-deception should be over too. Yakubu Adamu, Shehu Buba Umar, Halliru Dauda Jika, Usman Sufi, and M.A. Abubakar SAN will all test their strength. But to claim the outcome is already written because 2007 happened is to insult the intelligence of Bauchi voters.

On Saturday, February 6, 2027, the people will speak. And when they do, it will be with their eyes on 2027 structures, records, and candidates, not their ears on 2007 echoes.

This is why M. A Abubakar SAN stands out.

Danaudi, Writes From Bauchi Via danaudicomrade@gmail.com