Nigeria’s Agricultural Transformation Under Tinubu: Success In Markets, Struggles On Farms -By Aliyu Baba Mohammed

Consumer Relief as Food Costs Drop Nationwide

Across Nigeria, especially in the North, food prices are experiencing a dramatic drop, a development widely celebrated as bringing much-needed relief to citizens who have endured severe economic hardships over recent years under the administration of the immediate past president, late Muhammadu Buhari, because of border closure. President Bola Tinubu’s agricultural policy initiatives, implemented since his inauguration in May 2023, are yielding measurable outcomes, particularly in enhancing food accessibility and stabilizing market conditions.

The Nigerian President has made commitments to citizens that his administration will intensify efforts throughout the New Year to reduce elevated food costs by enhancing domestic food production and tax relief for essential supplies. President Tinubu has given assurances to Nigerians regarding the government’s determination to enhance food production and decrease food and drug inflation to 15%, while recognizing ongoing inflation and rising costs of basic necessities that mostly resulted from subsidy removal.

The Minister of agriculture and food security, Malam Abubakar Kyari has been outspoken regarding the effectiveness of government interventions. “The government’s production in 2024 has transformed the food market,” Kyari declared. “I can confidently say that food prices have crashed, reflecting the success of these efforts”. Both Kyari and Chairman senate committee on agriculture, Saliu Mustapha confirmed during a visit to Ilorin, Kwara State capital, that foodstuff prices are declining across markets nationwide.

Strategic Government Interventions

The administration’s approach has encompassed various interventions designed to improve food accessibility for ordinary citizens. Recently, the Federal Government finalized arrangements to sell 50kg rice bags at ₦40,000 to civil/public servants, aimed at mitigating the food crisis and its impact on Nigerians.

Nevertheless, the positive trends in food pricing emerge within a complicated economic environment. The elimination of fuel subsidies contributed to inflation reaching 34.19% by June, 2024, with food inflation exceeding 40% (according to the National Bureau of Statistics), forcing millions into desperate circumstances as they struggle to afford basic necessities; primarily driven by increases in food staples such as rice, beans, garri, maize, millet, yam, and bread, alongside energy and housing expenses.

However, the situation has reversed, with food prices dropping significantly. In the core North, a module of rice now costs between ₦1,300 and ₦1,600, depending on the location and type. Beans are priced between ₦1,200 and ₦1,500 per module, a significant drop from over ₦3,000 in previous years. Notably, the price of a bag of onions has drastically fallen from over ₦100,000 to under ₦10,000, with similar trends observed in other consumables. In the meantime, the trend of relief is one-sided according to the farmers, especially the small scale farmers or food producers.

The Overlooked Challenge: Agricultural Producers Under Pressure Over Input Cost

While consumers welcome reduced food prices across the country, Nigerian agricultural producers (Farmers) face extraordinary difficulties that jeopardize the agricultural sector’s long-term viability. Fertilizer costs, previously around N20,000 per bag, increased dramatically to approximately N46,000 this year. The Urea fertilizer (50kg bag) is sold between N43,000-N50,000; depending on location, while NPK fertilizer is between N50,000-N55,000; also depending on location, other types follow the same trend. This surge further compromised farmers’ production capabilities and profit margins while hampering investment in crucial areas like technology and soil management.

Unarguably, escalating agricultural input expenses pose a substantial threat to sustainable food production. Fertilizer prices have more than doubled, while farming equipment and chemicals remain predominantly unaffordable for smallholder farmers who constitute Nigeria’s agricultural foundation. Even high-profile government initiatives launched earlier this year have failed to reach their target recipients. The tractors President Tinubu introduced earlier this year continue to be largely unreachable to farmers months later, demonstrating the disconnect between policy declarations and grassroots implementation. This accessibility problem undermines the government’s comprehensive agricultural modernization objectives.

Security Concerns and Competitive Market

Nigerian farmers additionally face security challenges that limit their ability to access agricultural land and conduct farming operations safely. Research indicates that the federal government’s food security objectives encounter obstacles, with farmers losing substantial farmland due to various factors including security issues.

The government’s border opening policies and tax exemptions for specific imported agricultural products, while advantageous for consumers, have generated competitive pressures that are overwhelming local farmers in the face of input cost. These measures, intended to increase food availability and reduce prices, inadvertently weaken domestic production by making imported alternatives more appealing to consumers.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s Agricultural Import expenditure increased by 30% to N920 billion in the first quarter of 2024, highlighting the nation’s increasing dependence on imported agricultural products such as wheat and essential foods to satisfy consumer demand, which domestic farming cannot adequately fulfill. This pattern reveals a fundamental policy contradiction: while food prices decrease for consumers, the country becomes increasingly dependent on imports rather than strengthening domestic production capabilities.

Economic Significance of Agriculture

A report by Business Day revealed that Agriculture serves as a cornerstone of Nigeria’s economy, contributing approximately 25% to GDP and employing 70% of the national workforce. To utilize its fertile land and favourable climate conditions and reverse its position as a net food importer, substantial investment is required to develop Nigeria’s downstream food processing and agribusiness sectors. Historically, The 1972 Agricultural Development Programme Framework,

Nigeria possesses successful agricultural development precedents that could guide current policy formulation. The Agricultural Development Programme (ADP) established in 1972 was specifically created to boost food production and increase small-scale farmer incomes through comprehensive capacity development initiatives.

The ADP framework emphasized:

i. Delivering accessible and affordable agricultural inputs to smallholder farmers

ii. Creating comprehensive extension service networks

iii. Enhancing farmer capabilities through training and education programmes

iv. Establishing sustainable agricultural financing mechanisms

v. Developing rural infrastructure like roads to support agricultural production

The current administration could gain from incorporating fundamental ADP principles, such as comprehensive Input Supply Networks: Instead of fragmented interventions, implementing a holistic approach ensuring fertilizers, seeds, chemicals, and equipment are simultaneously available and affordable to farmers. Over 70 percent of Nigerians participate in agriculture primarily at subsistence levels. Despite economic contributions, Nigeria’s agricultural sector confronts numerous challenges including inadequate technology, high production costs, and poor distribution systems.

Current Government Programmes and Future Outlook

The Tinubu administration has shown recognition of agricultural challenges in the country. The 2,000 high-quality tractors equipped with trailers, ploughs, harrows, sprayers, and planters to support small scale farmers (even though they are yet to be fully accessible, and utilized). Also, the Presidential Fertilizer Initiative (PFI), a fundamental component of Nigeria’s food security strategy, is advancing efforts to ensure reliable and continuous fertilizer supply to Nigerian farmers. According to a report by PRNigeria, Presidential Fertilizer Initiative (PFI 3.0) is entering a new phase, establishing the groundwork to guarantee a steady and resilient supply of fertilizer to Nigerian farmers in line with President Tinubu’s vision for food security and self-sufficiency. Nevertheless, there is dire need for proper monitoring of these initiatives to ensure effective distribution to the targeted farmers, and optimal utilization.

Strategic Policy Recommendations

i. Agricultural Input Support: Execute targeted subsidies for fertilizers, seeds, and chemicals specifically benefiting smallholder farmers

ii. Equipment Access: Streamline government tractor distribution mechanisms to ensure intended beneficiaries receive them

iii. Security Improvement: Strengthen security in farming communities to enable safe agricultural operations. The excessive security personnel attached to VIPs should be reduced/withdrawn, and posted to farming communities to secure farmlands.

iv. Balanced Trade Policies: Develop policies protecting domestic farmers while ensuring food security

v. Infrastructure Investment: Invest in rural infrastructure including storage facilities, processing centers, organized markets, and road/transportation networks

vi. Finding Balance: Consumer Benefits and Producer Viability

While declining food prices provide welcome relief for Nigerian consumers experiencing economic difficulties, the sustainability of this trend critically depends on supporting domestic farmers. The government’s agricultural policies have accomplished the immediate objective of food affordability but risk creating long-term food security challenges by undermining local production capacity. As Special Adviser to the president on Economic Affairs in the Office of the Vice President, Tope Kolade Fasua, said that “Nigerians Now Enjoying Low Food Prices,” notwithstanding, the administration must ensure this achievement does not compromise farmers who are essential for sustainable food security. The 1972 ADP provides a validated framework for accomplishing both objectives: affordable food for consumers and prosperous, productive farmers.

Progress requires a more sophisticated approach balancing immediate consumer relief with long-term agricultural sustainability. Only by addressing input cost challenges, improving farmer resource access, and learning from successful historical models can Nigeria build a truly resilient food system serving both consumers and producers effectively.

Achievement in this endeavour will determine whether Nigeria’s current agricultural reforms represent temporary price reduction or the foundation for lasting food security and agricultural prosperity. The challenge lies in maintaining consumer benefits while ensuring the agricultural sector remains viable and competitive. Success will require coordinated efforts across multiple fronts: policy reform, infrastructure development, farmer support, and market stabilization. The administration’s ability to navigate these complex challenges will ultimately define the legacy of Nigeria’s current agricultural transformation and its impact on national food security.

Aliyu Baba Mohammed, writes from Kaduna State, Nigeria

He can be reached via: aliyu0380@gmail.com