El-Rufai vs Tinubu: The 2027 Political Battlefield -By Abdulrofiu Muhammed Temitayo

Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai is a man who is intellectual, bold, strategic, technocratic, controversial, and a polarizing figure. Since the inception of the Fourth Republic, he has occupied political positions that have placed him as a big player in Nigeria’s political dispensation. An alumnus of Ahmadu Bello University (ABU) and Harvard University, one cannot dissociate his brilliance and smart precision from the policies, reforms, and legacies he has championed. His firmness is a subject of mixed opinions, reflecting his ability to make bold decisions while navigating the intricacies of Nigerian politics and governance.

El-Rufai’s recent defection from the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) has trailed sundry accusations from allies and adversaries. During the 2023 electioneering, El-Rufai showed enthusiasm for Tinubu’s bid for the presidency; he confronted the northern power brokers who wanted the former Senate President, Ahmed Lawan, to vie for the position. In politics, at different levels, individuals orchestrate the game plan shrewdly or naively, which goes as planned by the chief player. This is one of the ball games El-Rufai failed to understand after the election and displaced his ideological belief by branding Tinubu an ingrate. One question comes to mind: Can a politician accuse an associate of being an ingrate when politics is all about interest in the long run?

One mysterious actor who has taken the gun to his head is Mallam Nuhu Ribadu. Can one Mallam infiltrate another Mallam? This is an additional question for another day. El-Rufai felt betrayed by his old friend Ribadu when he needed him most (rub my back as I rub yours). The beef started when Ribadu stuck with the ACN presidential slot without El-Rufai’s awareness. It had been a closed rift, but Tinubu’s presidency brought it to the limelight. Tinubu trusted his ally more than a newly turned fighter, El-Rufai—once bitten, twice shy—given his inconsistency with former bosses Olusegun Obasanjo, Atiku Abubakar, and Goodluck Jonathan.

A suspect from Shehu Sani’s movement from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC) is a mysterious attraction that should have been noticed by El-Rufai. Sani has been an activist since the military era and has been in the glorious democratic book with Tinubu in the struggle. Obviously, he must have been a hidden hand obstructing El-Rufai’s chance in the new government. El-Rufai had a dark book with some of his associates, with a reputation for being fearless and outspoken. He does not shy away from controversial decisions, even when they attract criticism and earn him animosity.

In history, El-Rufai has made both positive and negative impacts on the Nigerian political landscape. The positive impacts are numerous and are characterized by urban reforms in Abuja, strengthening governance, educational reforms, investment attraction, and infrastructure development in Kaduna State. The negative impacts that cannot be overlooked include the controversial demolitions in Abuja, handling of ethno-religious conflicts, mass layoffs in Kaduna, perceived authoritarianism, unpopular education policy implementation, and polarizing rhetoric. Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai’s leadership has had a fusion of positive and negative effects. While his reforms and developmental strides are laudable, his approach to governance and handling of sensitive issues often flicker criticism.

Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai’s defection to a new political party can bolster his career through strong alliances with Rabiu Kwankwaso’s NNPP, leveraging dissatisfaction with the ruling APC and extending his national reach beyond his traditional fortresses. However, the limited popularity of the new party (SDP), internal party dynamics, loyalty issues, public perception of opportunism, and APC’s stronghold are challenges that could hinder El-Rufai’s rise in the coming elections. The triumph of El-Rufai’s defection to a new party dangles on the strategy, strength, and national appeal of the party. If the party can build a plausible substitute platform and El-Rufai assumes a striking, cherished role, it could give a new lease of life to his political career.

The 2027 election will be an interesting game, mainly because of the northern alliance’s reliance on population advantage, strong political figures like Atiku Abubakar, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, and Nasir El-Rufai—if possibly aligned—and ethnic and regional sentiments as perceived neglect of northern interests. Additionally, forming strong coalitions with the South-South or Southeast to challenge the APC at the polls is another factor. Tinubu might neutralize these alliances with deep connections and a well-organized political structure through APC, a national support base in the Southwest and other regions, and regional fragmentation, which might help dissolve the northern alliance. Furthermore, the perception of ethnic politics might alienate voters from other parts of the country who prefer a more inclusive agenda.

While northern alliances have the potential to challenge Tinubu’s second-term aspirations, their success will depend on unity, strategy, and their ability to address national issues beyond regional interests. Tinubu’s performance in office, especially on economic and security matters, will also play a vital role in shaping the outcome of the 2027 elections. Without a broad coalition and a clear national agenda, defeating Tinubu could remain a significant challenge.

The potential political battle between Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Nasir El-Rufai in 2027 can be best described as “a clash of titans” within Nigeria’s political landscape. This contest would reflect a power struggle between two highly influential and strategic politicians, both with strong political bases and differing leadership styles. Some perspectives on how it can be characterized include the battle of ideologies and governance styles, regional power play, the struggle for the northern vote, and a test of political loyalty and alliances.

The political landscape in Kaduna is dynamic, with alliances and oppositions continually evolving. El-Rufai’s success in the forthcoming elections will heavily depend on his ability to navigate these relationships, build new coalitions, and address the concerns of both political figures and the electorate. The likes of the current Governor of Kaduna State, Uba Sani; ex-Senator Shehu Sani; former Speaker Rt. Honourable Yusuf Zailani; and ex-Commissioner Sadiq Mamman Lagos are El-Rufai’s potential opposition figures in Kaduna who are ready to fight tooth and nail against him in the state.

El-Rufai has been actively engaging with opposition figures and parties, notably the Social Democratic Party (SDP). He has extended invitations to prominent politicians such as Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Rauf Aregbesola, Kayode Fayemi, and Rotimi Amaechi to join forces in creating a formidable coalition against the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) ahead of the 2027 elections.

In response to El-Rufai’s advances, some political figures have shown openness to collaboration. For instance, Babachir Lawal, former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, has indicated his support for El-Rufai’s initiative to prevent President Bola Tinubu from securing a second term. However, it’s important to note that not all reactions have been favorable. Sule Lamido, former Governor of Jigawa State, has criticized El-Rufai’s call for opposition unity under the SDP, reflecting the complexities of forming such an alliance.

While El-Rufai’s efforts have sparked discussions and some preliminary meetings among opposition figures, as of now, there have been no definitive commitments from the invited leaders to join him in the SDP. The political landscape remains fluid, and the success of this proposed coalition will depend on ongoing negotiations and alignments in the lead-up to the 2027 elections.

My candid and strategic advice to Nasir El-Rufai regarding his new political moves is to rebuild a strong political base by strengthening his influence in Kaduna State and the northern region while showcasing his governance record to appeal to reform-minded voters. He should collaborate with key opposition figures while avoiding a fragmented front by ensuring the coalition is cohesive and has a clear strategy.

Politics often rewards forgiveness and strategic alliances over grudges. He should reconcile with estranged allies, including those within the APC, to reduce opposition. In managing his public perception, he should adopt a more conciliatory tone when addressing sensitive issues, especially regarding religion and regional politics, and avoid unnecessary controversies.

El-Rufai’s political expedition highlights the delicate balance between ambition and strategic humility. His competence in traversing alliances, articulating a national vision, and effectively mobilizing support will determine his relevance in Nigeria’s evolving political landscape. As 2027 looms, his moves will be closely watched, not just by political spectators but by a nation eager for effective leadership.

Temitayo writes from Benin City, Edo State and can be reached at muhtay99@gmail.com.