Still On Osun And The Election That Was!  (2) -By Abiodun KOMOLAFE

In its natural, neutral and humane form, politics ought to be “the messy, vital machinery of human compromise designed to resolve conflict without violence.” Far too often, though, it degenerates into “a high-stakes theatrical circus” where leaders pretend a “clumsy, synchronized dance” was the plan all along. Little wonder Ernest Benn defined politics as “the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it wrongly, and applying unsuitable remedies.”

Truth be told, Osun APC at the moment is fighting on a myriad of fronts. In the first place, it has to achieve maximum turnout in January to assist President Bola Tinubu’s second-term bid. In many ways across the Southwest, APC will be relying on the president’s coattails in the legislative elections for both the Federal and State Houses of Assembly, and crucially for the governorship elections, particularly in Oyo and Ogun States.

Without Tinubu’s coattails and the use of the theme of Cultural Hegemony (Ọmọ wa ni ẹ jẹ́ ó ṣé), the APC, in much of the Southwest, presently lacks a core message akin to what is still remembered of the Action Group (1951-1966), the Unity Party of Nigeria (1978-1983), the Social Democratic Party (1989-1993), the National Democratic Coalition (1994-1998), and even the Alliance for Democracy (1998-2006). As fate would have it, this is the first time in modern political history that what is perceived as the dominant political party in the Southwest is not resonating with a well-disseminated core message. This is very unfortunate for the zone, because a core message is interwoven with, and indeed drives, economic development.

That Adeleke has promised to work for, and deliver Osun votes to the president complicates the matter. The twin-like bond between the governor and Dele Momodu – and, by extension, Momodu’s close ties with Nigeria’s former vice president, Atiku Abubakar – also brings an engaging, refreshing twist to the game. Nevertheless, the dilemma lies in the day after, when the dust settles and each camp rushes to arrogate the title ‘warrior’ to itself, claiming exclusive credit as the sole architect of victory. There and then, the fragility of this much-talked-about coalition will be fully laid bare.

A political party, in the modern sense of the concept, is fundamentally the driver of historical change. Osun 2026 has shown that, with a clearly articulated message of progressive intervention, the APC could have won; for there was little in Adeleke’s four years in office so profound that it could single-handedly rally the electorate. Unfortunately, the party showed little sign of having done much about a central doctrine comparable to the UPN’s ‘Four Cardinal Principles.’ Its appeal relied not on an ideological platform, but on individuals, some of whom were viewed by voters as contentious. With no unifying doctrine in place, the contest ultimately became an ‘Us-versus-Them’ clash – and, in the eyes of the electorate, a calculation of which primary candidate was more acceptable.

To a cross-section of Nigerians, the major problems with the APC in Osun are overconfidence, deliberate self-deception and pride. To others, the challenges with the status quo are that, unlike in the past, the party does not seem to be doing enough to expand its talent pool, and that the available, tested and trusted hands are not being optimally utilized. With these in place, pretenders and sycophants – who are not only scared of their own shadows but also garbed in “a blind ambition for power without purpose or with the wrong purpose” – have emerged to display their wares. Some party members also complain about a reward system which is not too good for quality political participation.

Students of pattern creation would agree with yours sincerely that, given their fiercely contested dynamics, the 2014 and 2026 Osun governorship elections appeared to be siblings, from different mothers. Arguably too, the losses of September 22, 2018 and July 16, 2022 contests seemed to have belonged to the same parents. On each of these occasions, Osun APC allegedly became an opposition to itself … and the centre scattered! So, what happened, and what were the party strategists’ briefs a priori? Why did the party fall into the trap of repeating past motions without mastering their underlying logic, and why was a potential triumph turned into a self-inflicted lesson in political complacency?

A man of Bola Oyebamiji’s managerial capabilities, had he been methodically projected as the standard-bearer to implement a clearly focused programme, would have been unstoppable. Painfully, Osun APC attempted the sacred dance of David, but the rhythm was unmistakably that of Herodias’s daughter. It was a performance with lurid music, but John the Baptist’s head on a platter was the price. Unless steps are taken to correct these drags – especially now while they can still make an impact – the party’s chances in the coming general elections may be wounded on the battlefield. Lest we forget, this is the first time in the Southwest that elections have been conducted in two states without election tribunal sittings.

For the future, Osun APC requires a clear political message to expand its appeal, especially to the unconverted, given that its existing base remains static. The party should be deeply concerned that it was rejected in the last governorship election by so many first-time voters. An internal inquiry should be conducted to understand why this occurred. As state party leader, former governor and current Minister Gboyega Oyetola should lead this effort. Attributing the failure merely to the “Davido effect” would be simplistic and naive.

A good place to begin is to go back to 1987, thirty-nine years ago, and examine in detail the central theme of the last major address made by Chief Obafemi Awolowo a few months before his passing into the ages. In it, the late sage articulated with sublime clarity how to navigate the Thesis and the Antithesis, and how both could ultimately be fused into a harmonious Synthesis. Awolowo was talking about broadening the base as well as deepening the programme to shift the terms of debate and public perception in favour of progressive discourse.

APC in the Southwest has a historic duty to begin mobilizing now for the mother of all publicly televised, widely disseminated, multimedia forums on ‘40 Years After: The Continuing Relevance of the Sage.’ The 40^th anniversary of Awolowo’s transition should become the springboard for a progressive rebirth in the Southwest and the fundamental preparation for events to come, post-2031.

The recently concluded Niger Delta Forum, in which all the Niger Delta states alongside civil society actively participated, has exposed the lethargy within the Southwest political class. A rigorous re-evaluation of Awolowo’s dialectical synthesis indicates clearly that regional integration should return to the front burner. Therefore, it is in the interest of the APC in the Southwest now to return to its roots or continue to face existential threats. Osun should serve as both a forewarning and a wake-up call. With a roadmap in place – centred on well-crafted and well-defined goals – the age of lingering bitterness over past political miscalculations and self-serving post-mortems will be put to rest, ensuring the long-term sustainability of the region.

As I have commented in previous interventions, electoral outcomes are rarely accidental. In most cases, they reflect the internal health, organizational cohesion, and emotional connection of a political movement with the populace. What’s more, genuine reconciliation is not achieved through media handshakes, long press releases, name-calling, or ‘padi-padi’ political compromises arranged in distant hotel rooms. When loyal party members feel abandoned or sidelined, their indifference on Election Day can only reveal itself in a quiet, devastating veto. President Tinubu understands the true meaning of reconciliation; that is why he has gone this far in life.

May the Lamb of God, who takes away the sin of the world, grant us peace in Nigeria!

⁕Concluded.

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