Strategic Political Open Memo: APC National Chairmanship and the Benue Factor -By Prof. Leonard Karshima Shilgba

Forecasting the Political Consequences of a Northern Christian APC Chairman on Benue Dynamics and the 2027 Elections

1. CONTEXT

With the recent resignation of Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje as APC National Chairman, names like Senator George Akume (current SGF) and Chief Barnabas Gemade (former National Chairman of PDP and ex-Senator) have emerged in succession speculations. These considerations coincide with Benue’s rising strategic relevance within North-Central Nigeria and the APC.

2. SCENARIO ANALYSIS:

Akume vs Gemade as APC Chairman

If Senator George Akume is appointed APC National Chairman:

* Power Realignment: The centre of gravity in Benue APC returns to Akume, effectively reversing his perceived political eclipse after the 2023 general elections.

* Consequences for Governor Alia:

High Political Risk: Given the publicised rift between Akume and Alia, Akume’s elevation would threaten Alia’s internal standing in the APC.

Party Structure Capture: Akume would likely influence party congresses and primaries to favour loyalists, potentially isolating Alia.

Possibility of Defection: Alia could be pressured to exit APC if reconciliation fails—especially if denied structure and nomination assurances for 2027. Former Gov. Ortom did a similar thing in 2018, leading to both President Buhari and Senator Akume losing in the 2019 general elections.

If Chief Barnabas Gemade is appointed APC National Chairman:

* Neutral Eldership Role: Gemade, though also Tiv, has not been deeply enmeshed in recent state-level power struggles. His leadership may offer a more conciliatory and mature tone.

* Effect on Alia:

* Less direct threat to his political space.

* Possibility of easing internal tensions and preserving APC unity in Benue.

* Akume’s Position: A Gemade chairmanship might be a compromise to diffuse intra-Tiv tensions while still keeping power within Benue. It is unlikely though that another Tiv man would hold the SGF at the same time.

3. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRESIDENT TINUBU AND 2027 BENUE STRATEGY

If Alia remains in APC (under Gemade or reconciled Akume):

* Tinubu retains a popular sitting governor in Benue, consolidating rural and Catholic support.

* A united APC in Benue could deliver the minimum 25% requirement or more.

If Alia defects from APC (under hostile Akume chairmanship):

* APC faces serious electoral erosion in Benue State.

* Alia could align with a different party (LP, SDP, or even a realigned PDP), leveraging his current grassroots appeal and support from church-based communities.

* Tinubu’s APC risks:

* Losing Benue outright in 2027.

* Or falling below the constitutional 25% vote share threshold, especially if multiple North-Central states are lost.

4. STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Presidency’s Calculated Choice: If retaining Benue is critical to Tinubu’s 2027 map, then appointing a consensual figure like Gemade or ensuring rapprochement between Akume and Alia is essential.

2. Internal Peace Pact: Initiate a private reconciliation process between Akume and Alia, facilitated by neutral elders or clerics from the Tiv Catholic bloc and Abuja power brokers.

3. Message Management: Avoid public triumphalism if Akume is chosen. A tone of inclusive leadership and bridge-building must dominate his early public posture (I see him incapable of doing this, except Gov. Alia capitulates to his demands, which would give the opposition a tool to undercut both Alia and Tinubu in Benue).

4. Track Alia’s Signals: Monitor Alia’s next moves. If he distances further from APC federal activities or begins to court alternative platforms, swift political recalibration may be necessary. President Tinubu may then be forced to choose between Akume and Benue.

FINAL THOUGHT:

Benue is not just a symbolic swing state—it is a litmus test of Tinubu’s North-Central strategy, and a theatre of Northern Christian political identity. The choice of APC Chairman must therefore be handled not just as a party affair but as a geopolitical and electoral chess move. If Tinubu cannot woo in Kwankwaso, a prominent North-West political juggernaut and is unable to reconcile with his aggrieved far-north polical allies, he should not worsen his likely outcome in 2027 by taking actions that may cost him votes in Benue and similar states in the North-Central zone.

Although the discerning among us appreciate that his deep transformative reforms are good for Nigeria, the majority of the voters are angry with Tinubu because their standard of living continues to worsen in spite. I believe that it is in his second term that the fruits of those reforms may come pouring in. Accordingly, the president must not create problems for any popular governor that is presently with him before 2027.

© Shilgba