Guinea’s Minerals Must Not Become Its Financial Shackles, by Fransiscus Nanga Roka

A defense by surrender to a $28.9 billion claim should ask how high above the ground can one jump based only on space-contact, not fly it in orbit? The fight between Axis International and Guinea lays bare a potent clash: with nation trying to assert authority over mineral riches and an investor seeking damages of an order that could change the state of national coffers.

The UAE-based company said Guinea’s Boffa bauxite permit, where it had invested considerable time and capital, was revoked in May 2025. Axis has an 85 percent stake in the domesticlevel miner, which is expected to report production of 18 million tonnes in2404. Its demand for payment of compensation bites into more than 800 million tonnes of claimed proven reserves. These are company representations, not federally adjudicated conclusions.

ICSID, Axis International Limited v. Republic of Guinea, case ARB/26/3 (Jan. 16, 2026). Relevant instruments invoked are the 2011 Guinea-United Arab Emirates investment treaty and Guinea’s Investment Code. The tribunal was set up on June 12. Guinea on September 25 requested that its objection to jurisdiction be decided as a matter of preliminary consideration. Liability (as claimed) has not been established in the form of a compensation award; the dispute is pending.

That procedural reality matters. A debt is a not-sovereign demand of the company. However, plaintiff may not assumption jurisdiction, unlawful conduct or double recovery simply by invoking two separate legal instruments.

The critical question is whether Guinea used valid regulatory power—and, if not, what actual loss its behavior caused.

A need of serious defence to resource sovereignty. It is incumbent on governments to go after domestic processing, uphold development pledges and ensure that extraction serves citizens. But those goals require clear obligations, showing no tolerance for violations, and fair process. The arbitrary cancelation of an industrial-policy initiative can then metamorphose into a costly legal disaster.

Investor protection should also have layers of limitations that are equal in rigor. Mineral reserves are not cash obtained. Valuation has to deal with extraction cost, infrastructure needs, taxes, production schedules, commodity-price volatility, environmental responsibility and the life left in rights of action. The mere abundance of a resource in the ground does not replace a defensible calculation of economic loss.

The danger here politically is that both parties have the capacity to blur those lines. They may invoke every challenge as an attack on sovereignty. Investors may depose massive valuations as smart money. Instead of competing proclamations, citizens deserve evidence.

Five strategic steps are urgent.

Initially, Guinea should release a non-justified basis for the revocation of these permits, including official inspection results and procedural timelines. Only independent scrutiny can ascertain whether enforcement was uniform between similar operators.

A second area is that wherever possible, Axis should be more transparent about the valuation method it uses and essential assumptions. The tribunal focuses on causation, ownership interests, mitigation and claims overlap. Compensation must be commensurate with the quantifiable damages established under applicable law.

Third, Guinea should consider litigation exposure as part of fiscal planning but not include the demand among accepted liabilities. Financial independence and public monitoring with accountability on any settlement must be done.

Fourth, any concessions in possible future agreements should include enforceable commitments to process, reasonable time frames for infrastructure and notice of breach with opportunity to cure. Enforceable plans, not politically expedient deadlines are needed for the industrial transformation of our economy.

Fifth, the system must provide accessible safeguards for wages, environmental and local development commitments throughout the dispute to workers and communities affected by these disputes. They cannot wait for an arbitral decision.

Guinea must protect its resources by prudent law You are all fired on the base of disciplined evidence supporting right and wrongs.

NARRATIVE: One in which officials make decisions that count because they are unaccountable; investors turn mineral potential into unquestioned wealth; citizens inherit the fallout. Rather than serving as the collateral against which Guinea mortgaged its future, bauxite should build it.

Fransiscus Nanga Roka

Faculty of Law University 17 August 1945 Surabaya and Managing Partner Law Firm Victorious Indonesia