Osun Decides 2026: Democracy in Motion, or a Shadow of Itself?

As Osun State heads to the polls in a few days to elect the person who takes up leadership of the state for the next 4 years, the machinery of democracy appears to be in place. Over two million voters are registered, BVAS devices have been configured, and thousands of security operatives have been dispatched into the state. However, a closer scrutiny of events that occurred over the past weeks tells a different story. Four major developments raise an important question: is democracy truly being observed, or is it just being staged?

On Thursday, July 30^th, the National Peace Committee, chaired by former Head of State Abdulsalami Abubakar, and convened by the Catholic Bishop of Sokoto Diocese, Bishop Matthew Kukah, brought all governorship candidates together in Osogbo to sign a peace deal ahead of the polls. While the incumbent, Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party (AP), and others attended the event and signed in person, Bola Oyebamiji, the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), was notably absent, sending a delegate to sign on his behalf. Whether his absence was a statement to his perception of the peace accord, or whether the clashing event was truly more important than signing the peace deal in person, is left for the voters to interpret and decide.

A more troubling development was the shunning and cancellation of the governorship debates. Two separate attempts by the media to bring candidates together to present themselves and their plans to their electorates were handled in a manner that belittled not just the media platforms but the democratic process they sought to promote.

On July 31^st 2026, two frontline contenders, Adeleke and Oyebamiji, shunned the online debate hosted by BBC Yoruba, rendering the exercise largely ineffective. Two days later, a physical debate organised by a coalition of broadcast stations was aborted at the last minute, with Olajide Esan of the African Action Congress already at the event venue. This time, security concerns and the reluctance of frontline candidates were reasons for the cancellation. In more established democracies, which we are quick to emulate, skipping a debate carries real political consequences because voters expect candidates to show up and account for themselves beyond the well-polished press releases and flowery campaign statements. Alas, the candidates in Osun State probably saw a direct engagement with the electorate as unnecessary while asking these same electorates for their votes.

The freezing of the Osun State government’s account on August 5^th is another situation that beggars belief. First Bank of Nigeria, Osun State’s bank, forwarded the state government a written directive from the Economic Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) to place its statutory allocation account under ‘Post No Debit’ over an alleged mismanagement of ecology, intervention and federal allocation funds worth 11 billion naira. The state government decried the act as a deliberate attempt to disrupt its operations, including the payment of salaries, and Governor Adeleke filed a 2-billion-naira suit against the EFCC at the Federal High Court in Abuja. Then, barely a day after, President Bola Tinubu directed the EFCC to lift the order. The entire incident leaves one question: ‘If a substantive investigation was carried out to justify freezing the state government’s account, should a single phone call be enough to reverse the order? And if the EFCC did not do due diligence, can the account freezing then be interpreted as an unjust, and perhaps, politically motivated action?

A final and recurring development is the persistent disagreement over police neutrality. The Accord Party has written formal petitions to both President Tinubu and the Inspector-General of Police (IGP), Tunji Disu, over what it describes as a pattern of intimidation and politically motivated arrests of its members. The statement has also repeatedly called for the removal of the state’s Commissioner of Police, Ibrahim Gotan, due to alleged partisanship. In a surprising turn of events, the IGP asked Gotan to stand aside and deployed Samuel Etaifo as an electoral commissioner of police to oversee the elections. With Governor Adeleke and his campaign council warmly welcoming the change, it remains to be seen whether the issue of police neutrality arises again during the election. After all, the electorate cannot fully trust an election’s outcome when the agency responsible for maintaining peace is being continuously and publicly accused of partiality.

As all these unfold, the issue of voter turnout has taken a backseat, although it deserves close watch. Osun State has 2.3 million registered voters for this election, which notably exceeds its nearly 2 million voters in the 2023 general election. However, registration has never been the problem in Osun State: voting has. In 2022, only about 42% turned out to vote in the State elections, and the turnout dropped to nearly 39% in the 2023 general elections. Whether the numbers increase this year will depend on whether or not voters are convinced that this is a genuine political contest that deserves their attention, rather than one that will play to a script.

Between the continued reports of violence, a half-observed peace accord, debates shunned by candidates, and an account that was frozen and unfrozen within days, undecided voters might easily become convinced that the outcome of the election is already being shaped behind the scenes, and showing up on election day changes nothing.

Osun will hold its governorship election on August 15^th, and it will be recorded that one more vote count has been successfully conducted. However, the gap between the mechanics of democracy and its substance is getting even wider. Until peace accords are respected, until debates stop being shunned, until police neutrality ceases to be negotiable, and until government agencies cease to act without transparency, we will succeed at conducting elections, but fail at delivering the real substance of democracy.