Tinubu, Atiku Trade Words Over Fuel Subsidy as 2027 Battle Heats Up

ABUJA — The political battle over Nigeria’s fuel subsidy regime intensified yesterday as President Bola Tinubu and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar took opposing positions on whether subsidy should return.

Tinubu dismissed calls for a return to subsidy as a sign of “serious ignorance about governance and the economy,” while Atiku proposed a new, targeted subsidy programme designed to support domestic refining rather than fuel imports.

The exchange comes as political activities ahead of the 2027 general elections continue to gather momentum.

Receiving Osun State Governor Ademola Adeleke at the Presidential Villa, Abuja, Tinubu criticised an unnamed political opponent who had proposed bringing back fuel subsidy.

“Let’s look at the trajectory of history. I saw one of my opponents now say he will go back to subsidy. I read it. That is a demonstration of serious ignorance about governance and the economy,” the President said.

Tinubu said the financial condition of many states before his administration was severe, recalling that 27 states could not pay workers’ salaries.

“Before I came here, 27 states were unable to pay salaries, not to even talk of pensioners. In your state, I know a man that I raised who is nicknamed ‘half salary.’

“They come to the Federal Government cap in hand, unable to do anything.”

The President argued that Nigerians were now seeing government intervention through infrastructure and social investment, including road construction, housing, school rehabilitation, healthcare and the training of teachers and health workers.

He also urged Governor Adeleke to use his electoral victory to promote unity and stability, saying: “You won the election. That is the essence of democracy.”

Adeleke thanked Tinubu for supporting what he described as a free and fair electoral process.

“I’m here to thank Mr. President, the father of the nation, because he fought for this democracy.

“That is why he allowed a free and fair election, and that is the result. That is why I’m here — to say thank you and to ensure that democracy lives in Nigeria,” he said.

Atiku: Subsidy should follow the barrel

Atiku, meanwhile, has offered a different approach, proposing a production-focused subsidy under his Economic Recovery Plan (AERP) 2027.

In a statement issued by his Senior Special Assistant on Public Communication, Phrank Shaibu, Atiku said his model would replace the old import-subsidy system with a targeted, capped and independently audited production subsidy for domestic refineries.

According to him, Nigeria should not frame the debate simply as subsidy versus no subsidy.

He said the real choice was between an opaque system that encourages waste and a disciplined programme that produces verifiable benefits.

“We will move subsidy from importation to production, from middlemen to Nigerian refineries, and from unverifiable claims to verifiable barrels. The principle is simple: the subsidy will follow the barrel,” Atiku said.

Under the proposed arrangement, qualifying refineries would obtain domestic crude at a preferential price in exchange for verified production and guaranteed supply to the Nigerian market.

Atiku said each subsidised barrel would be tracked from allocation to refining and eventual delivery, while crude intake, yields and inventories would be reconciled to prevent fraudulent claims.

Operators found diverting products, falsifying records or failing to pass benefits to consumers would lose eligibility, repay the subsidy and face prosecution, he said.

The former vice president also proposed that crude allocation be governed by transparent rules covering both public and private refineries.

A key element of the proposal would be a fixed annual subsidy ceiling approved by the National Assembly, with independent auditors verifying production and expenditure.

Atiku said the support would gradually decline as domestic refining capacity expanded.

“Support per barrel would also shrink over time as local refining capacity grows, built around a statutory sunset clause. Our objective is not permanent subsidy. It is to use temporary and disciplined support to build a refining industry strong enough eventually not to need subsidy,” he said.

Atiku questions Tinubu’s subsidy claim

Atiku also challenged the Tinubu administration over its declaration that fuel subsidy had been removed.

He questioned what exactly disappeared when Tinubu announced “subsidy is gone” at his inauguration in May 2023, citing NNPC Limited’s audited accounts.

According to Atiku, the accounts recorded about N4.84 trillion in “Energy Security Expenses” in 2023 and N7.13 trillion in 2024.

“You cannot abolish subsidy at Eagle Square and allow subsidy-like costs to resurface in government accounts without explaining the contradiction,” he said.

“Nigerians cannot pay for subsidy removal twice through punishing pump prices and through unexplained subsidy-like costs against their commonwealth.”

Atiku contrasted his proposed approach with the Tinubu administration’s policy.

“Tinubu’s approach was: announce first, impose the pain immediately, and explain the accounts later. Ours will be: define the intervention, establish the ceiling, appropriate the money, track the crude, verify the production, guarantee the consumer benefit, publish the accounts and progressively reduce the subsidy,” he said.

Presidency: Atiku’s plan is retrogressive

The Presidency responded by accusing Atiku of abandoning his earlier opposition to fuel subsidy.

In a statement by Bayo Onanuga, Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, the Presidency said Atiku had failed to present a credible alternative and instead proposed the return of a subsidy system it described as wasteful and corruption-ridden.

Onanuga said Atiku had previously supported the elimination of subsidy during the 2023 election campaign but had now reversed his position.

“Even though he used to believe that the subsidy regime must be eliminated, a point he canvassed in the run-up to his defeat in the 2023 election, he has now opportunistically recanted the major plank of his economic doctrine and turned a renegade,” he said.

The Presidency argued that subsidy was not simply money sitting in government coffers for distribution but represented the under-recovery incurred when NNPC sold fuel below its cost.

It also rejected Atiku’s claim that the government had achieved a N30 trillion subsidy windfall or savings.

“Somewhere in the NNPC books are still trillions of Naira in subsidy costs that the Nigerian government has not paid. Contrary to Atiku’s claim in his interview, no N30 trillion subsidy windfall or savings exists anywhere except in his imagination,” Onanuga said.

He warned that restoring the old system would require a clear legal, fiscal and administrative framework and a sustainable funding source.

“Nigeria cannot afford to return to policies whose costs are hidden from citizens until they appear later as debt, reduced government spending on social services, and further pressure on the national currency,” he said.

The Presidency said Nigerians should welcome debate over living costs and economic policy but insisted that such discussions must be based on the country’s present economic and petroleum realities rather than the conditions of the past.

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