Climate Change Disrupts Farming in Nigeria as Farmers Suffer Billions in Losses

ABUJA — Increasingly unpredictable weather is putting Nigeria’s food production under severe pressure, with farmers reporting billions of naira in losses as erratic rainfall, flooding, prolonged dry spells, rising temperatures, pests and diseases disrupt agricultural activities.

Farmers and agricultural experts who spoke with Vanguard Agrobiz said climate-related disruptions were not only reducing harvests but also discouraging investment in agriculture, as farmers, agribusinesses and financial institutions become more reluctant to commit funds to a sector whose performance is increasingly dependent on uncertain weather conditions.

The effects are also worsening desertification in northern Nigeria, while pests and crop diseases continue to threaten large areas of farmland.

The Nigerian Meteorological Agency, NiMet, warned in its 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction that rainfall patterns would vary significantly across the country.

According to the agency, several southern and North-Central states were expected to experience early rainfall onset, while Borno State could experience a delayed onset.

NiMet also forecast differences in the cessation of the rainy season, with some areas expected to experience an early end and others a longer-than-normal season.

Although normal annual rainfall is expected across most parts of the country, above-normal rainfall was projected in parts of the North, South-East, South-South and the FCT. Below-normal rainfall was expected in parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo and Ogun states.

The agency further warned of dry spells in parts of 14 states, including Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Kano, Kebbi, Niger, Plateau, Sokoto, Yobe and Zamfara.

The forecast has heightened concerns among farmers who have already suffered the consequences of unpredictable weather in previous farming seasons.

AFAN: Climate change could deepen food insecurity

The Chairman of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria, AFAN, Dr Nkechi Okafor, described climate change as a major threat to Nigeria’s food production.

She warned that worsening climate conditions could force more farmers out of business and deepen food insecurity.

Okafor said farmers could no longer depend on the traditional rainfall patterns used to determine planting seasons.

“Climate change is real. It has come to stay. The only thing now is how we can work around it to make headway,” she said.

She explained that farmers sometimes plant following the first rains only to encounter prolonged dry spells afterwards.

As a crop farmer producing cereals, legumes and root and tuber crops, Okafor said she had witnessed the effects of late rainfall onset and early cessation on several crops.

She particularly identified rice and root and tuber crops as vulnerable when sufficient water is unavailable, stressing the need for more irrigation infrastructure.

‘Nigeria farmers are running losses into billions’

Okafor said climate-related shocks were already causing significant financial losses for farmers across Nigeria.

“Losses incurred cannot just be stated. It is not only about me; it is about Nigerian farmers. Nigeria farmers are running losses into billions of naira, and it is unfortunate,” she said.

She acknowledged that government could not control climate change but urged greater investment in helping farmers adopt climate-smart agricultural practices.

She also raised concerns over inadequate access to timely weather information among rural farmers.

“My fear is clear. Before this challenge of climate change, every farmer knew the period that rains start in each region, but today, no one can predict when rain will start,” she said.

Okafor called for stronger cooperation between farmers’ organisations and government agencies to train farmers in climate-smart agriculture.

She also urged the government to address the high cost of farm inputs, noting that farmers were buying expensive inputs while receiving relatively low prices for their produce.

According to her, more investment is needed in irrigation, farmer training and all-year-round farming systems.

Farmers report 30–40% yield losses

The Chief Farmer and Lead of JetFarmsNG, Jerry Olanrenwaju, said unpredictable rainfall, prolonged dry spells and excessive flooding were disrupting planting calendars and reducing yields.

He said crops such as ginger, turmeric and garlic were particularly affected.

Olanrenwaju explained that irregular rainfall could affect germination and root development, while excessive moisture could encourage fungal diseases.

He said some farmers in the company’s network had lost between 30 and 40 per cent of expected yields in some seasons.

A farmer investing between N500,000 and N800,000 per hectare, he added, could lose hundreds of thousands of naira from adverse weather conditions alone.

“As we approach the wet season, my major concern is the uncertainty. Will the rains come early, late, or excessively? This unpredictability makes planning very difficult and increases the risk of crop failure,” he said.

JetFarmsNG is promoting improved land preparation, organic soil enhancement, better drainage and adaptive planting schedules to reduce climate risks.

The company is also exploring irrigation and water-management solutions and working with partners to introduce improved seeds capable of withstanding changing weather conditions.

Olanrenwaju, however, said government interventions had not reached farmers on the scale required, calling for greater access to extension services, finance, insurance and reliable climate information.

Farmers face growing uncertainty

Sandra Victor-Gwafan, Co-Founder of DeBranch Farmers Limited, said climate change had created fear and hesitation among farmers in Kaduna and other parts of Nigeria.

She said farmers could no longer confidently determine when to plant because early rains could suddenly stop and heavy rainfall could arrive later than expected.

The company, which works mainly with rice out-growers, has introduced farmer sensitisation, drainage planning, coordinated mechanisation and staggered planting as precautionary measures.

Victor-Gwafan said some farmers had invested between N250,000 and N400,000 per hectare in inputs, labour and land preparation but lost between 30 and 50 per cent of expected harvests to flooding and prolonged dry spells.

She called for more investment in climate-smart agriculture, irrigation, resilient seeds, extension services, timely climate information and affordable financing.

Vegetable farmer turns to irrigation

Oluokun Remi, a vegetable farmer in Osun State, said climate change was increasingly affecting tomatoes, pepper, okra, cucumber, cabbage, onion and fruit production.

“When the rain is excessively too much, it will wash away nutrients from the reach of the plant roots,” he said.

Remi said he had also suffered losses when expected rainfall failed or stopped suddenly after planting.

He now plans for irrigation before planting as a way of reducing his exposure to weather risks.

“If the rain comes, fine, and if it doesn’t come, there is a plan,” he said, describing climate pressures as “varied and severe”.

Prof Babatunde Bolaji Bernard, an environmental expert, said climate change had become an immediate threat to Nigeria’s agricultural productivity and food security.

He said farmers were facing erratic rainfall, delayed rains, prolonged dry spells, rising temperatures and extreme flooding.

According to Bernard, drought and desertification were particularly affecting northern Nigeria, while flooding in central and southern areas was destroying crops, washing away soil nutrients and damaging agricultural infrastructure.

He also identified heat stress, pests and diseases as increasing threats to crops and livestock.

“Crops most affected include maize, which is highly sensitive to water stress; rice, which suffers from both drought and flooding; sorghum and millet, which are relatively resilient but still impacted by extreme heat; and cassava, a staple that is increasingly threatened by shifting rainfall patterns and disease outbreaks,” he said.

He warned that these combined pressures were reducing food production, increasing production costs and driving up food prices.

Experts demand climate-smart agricultural policies

Bernard called for urgent adaptation measures, including early-maturing and drought-resistant varieties, improved irrigation, mulching, conservation agriculture, crop diversification and agroforestry.

He also called for stronger weather information and extension services to help farmers make better planting and harvesting decisions.

At the policy level, he urged increased investment in irrigation, rural roads, storage, market infrastructure and agricultural insurance.

He further called for stronger environmental regulations to address deforestation and land degradation and urged Nigeria to leverage international climate financing for agricultural adaptation.

ActionAid calls for climate resilience strategy

ActionAid Nigeria Country Director, Dr Andrew Mamedu, said climate change was already affecting millions of Nigerian smallholder farmers, particularly women who play a significant role in household food production.

Mamedu said farmers in northern Nigeria were dealing with prolonged drought, desertification and shorter rainy seasons, while communities in the Middle Belt and southern riverine areas were increasingly exposed to floods.

He said climate shocks were disrupting planting calendars, reducing yields and increasing production risks.

The impact, he added, was also being felt after harvest because extreme weather, poor storage, inadequate processing facilities and weak rural infrastructure were increasing post-harvest losses.

Mamedu said women farmers were disproportionately affected because of additional barriers to land, finance, irrigation, extension services and climate information.

ActionAid: Government response remains fragmented

Although he acknowledged government and development-partner programmes focused on climate-resilient agriculture, agroecology and farmer support, Mamedu said the overall response remained inadequate given the scale of the challenge.

He identified underinvestment in agriculture, limited irrigation infrastructure, weak extension services and poor access to finance as major constraints.

He called for a coordinated and adequately financed transformation of Nigeria’s food system rather than a reliance on reactive interventions.

Mamedu urged government and development partners to increase investment in drought- and flood-tolerant crops, soil restoration, regenerative agriculture, sustainable livestock systems, irrigation and water harvesting.

He also called for climate-resilient storage, cold chains, rural roads and local processing facilities to reduce post-harvest losses and improve farmers’ earnings.

He urged the government to expand affordable credit, insurance and targeted subsidies, particularly for women and young farmers.

“Ultimately, Nigeria cannot achieve food security without building climate resilience, and it cannot build climate resilience without prioritising the farmers who produce the country’s food,” he said.

Leadway urges farmers to embrace insurance

The Global Head, Agricultural Risk at Leadway Assurance, Mr Ayoola Fatona, advised farmers to insure their farms and agricultural inputs to reduce the financial impact of floods and drought.

He said many farmers still fail to include insurance among their essential farm inputs when preparing their planting budgets, concentrating instead on seeds and fertiliser.

“The smallholder farmer is at high risk. They are very much exposed, especially with this issue of climate and weather. Those are the little risk factors that smallholder farmers have to grapple with. And so that is where insurance goes in,” he said.

Fatona added: “Also, at the beginning of the season, when farmers are drawing out their budget, insurance is really not their preference. If you take a look at it as a service, they may do without it. You think about procuring seeds, procuring fertilizer, they don’t really think at that particular point.”

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