Understanding The Economics Of Insecurity: When Information Overflow Hides The Real Questions -By Idris Rufai

There are stories that demand immediate attention, not necessarily because every allegation surrounding them has already been proven, but because of the serious questions they leave hanging in the air.

Nigeria’s insecurity crisis is one of such issues.
For years, Nigerians have witnessed killings, kidnappings, banditry, communal conflicts, displacement and destruction of livelihoods. Yet, beyond the daily headlines and statistics, there is a deeper question that deserves greater attention: what is the economics behind insecurity, and who benefits from a system that continues to keep communities in fear?

At the 2026 Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) Annual General Conference, one of the discussions on insecurity particularly caught my attention. A panelist who spoke from practical, on-the-ground experience with violence and insecurity rather than from purely legal or academic perspectives drew attention to something many Nigerians may have become accustomed to seeing as normal.

His argument, as I understood it, was that some elements within the political system may contribute to insecurity and that what Nigerians sometimes describe as “unknown gunmen” may, in certain circumstances, have connections to known and influential individuals.

That is a serious assertion. It should neither be dismissed without examination nor accepted without evidence.

THE HASSAN (AKA BARRISTER HASSAN) INTERVIEWS AND THE QUESTIONS THEY RAISE
Against this background, I came across a series of interviews on Facebook involving a young Fulani man identified as Hassan, featured on the platform of D English Alhaji.

Rather than forming an opinion after watching only one episode, I listened to different episodes before considering what was being presented.
The interviews contained allegations concerning banditry, political connections, covert operations, personal tragedy and claims of access to information allegedly linking criminal networks with influential individuals.
But perhaps the most important part of the story is not necessarily what Hassan alleged. It is what his allegations, if properly verified, could mean for Nigeria’s fight against insecurity.

According to his testimony, members of his own family reportedly suffered at the hands of bandits. Among those he mentioned were his father, sister and uncle, while his family’s cattle were allegedly rustled.

He presented these experiences as part of what motivated him to understand those responsible. He claimed that instead of remaining a passive victim, he moved closer to criminal networks in an attempt to understand how they operated.
He also made a broader argument: that criminal activities had contributed to the stigmatization of innocent Fulani communities.
That distinction is important.

A criminal should be judged by his actions, not by his ethnicity. Likewise, an entire ethnic community should not be collectively blamed for the actions of individuals.

However, some of the political allegations reportedly made during the interviews require something more than public debate. They require independent investigation.
The claims allegedly pointed towards relationships between some influential political figures and criminal actors. These are extraordinary claims, and extraordinary claims require credible evidence.

It would therefore be irresponsible to declare the allegations true simply because they were made publicly. At the same time, it would also be wrong to ignore credible allegations merely because they are uncomfortable.
The appropriate response is investigation.

INFORMATION OVERFLOW WITHOUT INFORMATION BALANCE

Nigeria is currently experiencing an enormous flow of information. Social media has made it possible for almost anyone to publish a claim, record an interview or broadcast an allegation to millions of people.

But information abundance does not necessarily mean information quality.
We are sometimes overwhelmed by information while lacking the verified information needed to understand what is actually happening.

This is the danger of information overflow without information balance.

A sensational interview can spread within hours, while a carefully conducted investigation may take months. An allegation can trend online before the person accused has an opportunity to respond. As a result, public opinion can be formed before facts are established.

The responsibility, therefore, lies not only with citizens but also with journalists, media organisations and relevant authorities.
The media must ask: What is the evidence? Who is making the allegation? Who is being accused? Has the accused responded? Can the claim be independently verified? What documents, witnesses or other evidence support it?

These questions are essential because the fight against insecurity cannot be built on rumours, ethnic suspicion or politically convenient narratives.

UNDERSTANDING THE MICROECONOMICS OF INSECURITY

Another dimension that deserves greater attention is the microeconomics of insecurity.
When insecurity enters a community, its consequences are not limited to security statistics. It affects the ordinary person’s pocket.
A farmer who can no longer access his farm loses income. A trader who closes his shop early because of fear loses customers. A transport operator spends more on fuel and security. Parents may withdraw their children from school. Businesses relocate. Food production falls, and prices rise.

The result is a reduction in purchasing power.
When people’s incomes remain stagnant while the prices of food, transportation, housing and other necessities increase, households become economically vulnerable. Vulnerability can create conditions in which young people are easily recruited into criminal activities.
This is why the conversation about insecurity must go beyond military operations.
Security is important, but economic survival is also a security issue.

Government policies sometimes focus heavily on broad macroeconomic indicators while the microeconomic realities of ordinary Nigerians receive insufficient attention.

What happens to the individual household?
What happens to the small trader?
What happens to the farmer who cannot safely reach his farm?
What happens to the unemployed graduate?
What happens to the young person who has no meaningful source of income and is surrounded by criminal networks?
These questions require prior attention.

WHO BENEFITS FROM INSECURITY?

This is perhaps the most uncomfortable question.

Insecurity creates an economy of its own.
Some people lose their homes, businesses and livelihoods. Others may benefit from contracts, political influence, illegal taxation, ransom payments, arms trafficking, illicit trade or the diversion of resources meant to protect vulnerable communities.

This does not mean that every person involved in security related activities is corrupt, nor does it mean that every political figure has connections with criminals.

Rather, it means that a serious country must investigate whether criminal economies have developed around insecurity and whether powerful interests are benefiting from them.
If credible evidence establishes that any individual regardless of political position, ethnicity or social status has deliberately supported criminal activity, such a person should face the law.

Justice must not have a political party, ethnicity or social class.

FROM THE GRASSROOTS TO THE NATIONAL LEVEL

Nigeria has enormous human and material resources. Yet insecurity continues to undermine development.
The solution must therefore involve serious attention to the grassroots.
Local communities often know the early signs of insecurity before national institutions do. Traditional leaders, community organisations, farmers, traders, students, religious leaders and local journalists can provide valuable information.

But they must be protected and given credible channels through which information can reach security agencies.

Government must also strengthen intelligence gathering, community policing mechanisms, youth employment, education, agricultural security and support for small businesses.
Most importantly, investigations must be conducted independently and fairly.

If allegations such as those contained in the Hassan interviews are found to have credible evidence behind them, the appropriate authorities should investigate thoroughly, protect witnesses where necessary and prosecute anyone found culpable.
If the allegations are found to be false, that should equally be established through transparent investigation.

That is what justice requires.

A CALL FOR ACCOUNTABILITY

Nigeria cannot afford to normalise insecurity.
We cannot continue to treat killings, kidnappings, displacement and destruction of livelihoods as ordinary features of national life.
Neither should Nigerians allow information overload to replace evidence-based journalism and investigation.

The question is not simply who the gunmen are. We must also ask who finances them, who supplies them, who protects them, who benefits from their activities, and why communities remain vulnerable to them.

These questions should not be used to promote ethnic hatred or political witch-hunting. They should be used to demand accountability.
If Nigeria truly wants to defeat insecurity, it must address both the security economy and the economic conditions that make communities vulnerable to insecurity.
The country needs stronger institutions, responsible journalism, credible intelligence, economic opportunities and justice that is blind to political influence.

Ultimately, the fight against insecurity will not be won merely by counting the number of arrests or security operations. It will be won when ordinary Nigerians can farm without fear, travel without anxiety, trade without intimidation, send their children to school safely and live with the confidence that the state will protect them.

That is the Nigeria we should be working towards.

And that is why allegations, no matter how uncomfortable, should not be ignored but neither should they be accepted as facts without evidence.

The answer is investigation, accountability and justice.