Democracy: The Solution To The Tinubu Conundrum -By SKC Ogbonnia

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is Nigeria’s main problem—in short, a conundrum of sorts. Ranked among the world’s most corrupt leaders, his first two years in office unleashed the worst social crisis in recent history. Nowhere is safe; everywhere is in despair—the East, North, South, and the West. In a true democracy, he would not be contemplating a re-election bid. This point is that Nigeria’s democracy has crashed to its lowest ebb under Tinubu. The objective fact is that despite his devious denials, the president has craftily crushed the opposition with various state apparati. Any democracy without dynamic opposition is plain dictatorship and, by consequence, bad leadership. Unless drastic measures are taken to tame Tinubu, any hope for a true election in 2027 is a castle in the sky.

The most painful paradox is that Bola Ahmed Tinubu was for several years heralded as a champion of democracy. Even this writer would become a rabid believer. In a widely celebrated essay, “I Pity Tinubu” published in 2018, I had written that, “if dynamic opposition is the live-wire of a democracy, it is very fitting then to name Tinubu the saviour of Nigeria’s current democratic journey.” I argued therein that Tinubu, “more than any other Nigerian, nurtured and sustained the opposition movement” that brought a semblance of true competition in Nigeria’s national elections.

It is worth noting, however, that Mr. Tinubu was able to achieve such feat because the various governments at the time provided the enabling environment for the opposition to thrive. For example, despite his vicious feud with President Olusegun Obasanjo, despite his overbearing excesses and well-chronicled corrupt baggage as Lagos State governor, there was no attempt to strip Tinubu of his constitutional immunity nor declare a state of emergency in Lagos.

Further, to checkmate the then ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Tinubu had the unrestrained freedom to form the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) in 2006. The political freedom at the time might have been so intoxicating to embolden him to draft Obasanjo’s sitting Vice-President, Atiku Abubakar, as the presidential candidate of the ACN in the 2007 elections.

Like Tinubu, President Umaru Yar’Adua assumed power through a flawed election. But unlike Tinubu, Yar’Adua acknowledged the obvious and initiated genuine efforts to reform the electoral process for the common good of the Nigerian people, including members of the opposing parties.

As president, Goodluck Jonathan strengthened the democratic institutions with attendant freedoms. These freedoms made it possible for Tinubu and other opposition leaders to float the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2013. Jonathan would follow by appointing an independent-minded university professor, Attahiru Jega, as the Chairman of Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), a move widely hailed within both the ruling and opposition parties.

Mr. Jonathan did not stop there. He enthroned a good measure of institutional independence, transparency, confidence and robust trust in the polity by ensuring that other critical democratic, security, and financial institutions were equipped with qualified professionals drawn from broad sections of the Nigerian ethnic groups and political zones.

The gist, if it is already not manifest, is that Bola Ahmed Tinubu enjoyed an unchecked freedom to reign as an opposition leader.

Unfortunately, as president, the former Lagos State governor is bent on reigning as a dictator. He quickly set the pace by grossly eroding public trust in the entire electoral process. He has already in place a conga crumb of pliable cronies as heads of every facet of the essential institutions in the entire Nigerian democratic foundation.

Today, as the country claims to prepare for the 2027 general elections, a very small cabal within Tinubu’s tribe occupies the positions of the Inspector General of Police; the State Security Service (SSS); the Chairman Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC); Chief Justice of the Federation; Minister of Justice and Attorney General of the Federation; Chief of Army Staff; Director General, National Youth Service Corps; Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria; Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of Economy; the Group Managing Director (GMD) of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited; the Controller General of Customs; Minister of Interior; the Executive Chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS); to name a few. What is more? Knowing Tinubu, the way Nigerians have come to know him, the INEC chairman for the 2027 polls is bound to be no different.

I beg your indulgence to go through the above two paragraphs one more time.

Done?

Unless one is a nincompoop or an ignoramus, the 2027 election is a fait accompli. Simply put, the 2027 general elections from the state to federal levels are already rigged in favour of President Tinubu and the APC. It is said that the 2023 presidential election malpractices and the subsequent judicial intrigues were the most shameless in national history. Now, common sense ought to tell us that such exercise is only a child’s play compared to what is unfolding for the 2027 polls.

Today, with the Legislature and the Judiciary deeply compromised and pocketed, the only arm of government still standing is the Executive branch, which is under the firm control of the same corrupt dictator, who is known to show no shame in dictating who wins or who loses.

This singular reason, absolute power, accounts for why politicians elected under opposition parties are defecting in doves to the ruling party. Or, do we think their reason for the mass defections is suddenly his mere look, the economy, the security of lives and property, the direction of the country or hope for the future? Of course, not! The truth is that they are afraid that Tinubu will rig them out, and nothing will happen, as usual. Nothing more! The obvious outcome is a one-party state propelled by the worst government in the Nigerian democratic experience.

But you cannot continue to beat a child and also force him not to cry. Nigeria is boiling. With the apparent dearth of opposition in the country, Tinubu is risking a mass revolution of an unpredictable outcome.

A compromise is to treat the former Lagos Governor the way of a similar maximum dictator, Sani Abacha, in 1998. The G34, a group of eminent Nigerians, courageously opposed, confronted, and admonished Abacha when he was plotting to succeed himself in 1998. The 2025 version should be christened G36, made up of influential statesmen drawn from the civil society from the 36 states of the federation. This group would include religious, traditional, socio-cultural, and labour leaders. Their job is to compel Tinubu to do the right thing or face the consequences.

First, Tinubu must—without further delay—embrace and implement the various electoral proposals that are agreeable to the ruling party, opposition parties, and the civil society. Second, he must restructure the leaderships of the Nigerian democratic, finance, and security institutions—to not only reflect federal character but also be constituted with capable people of good character.

FAILURE to comply ought to provoke the opposition elements to revive and unite to boycott the 2027 elections. Clearer, if Tinubu refuses to provide a level playing ground for a true election, and is set to win by hook or crook, there is no other civil option to shame him than a boycott. In short, the country’s situation has since surpassed the threshold for a boycott. This move will profoundly reset the nation’s democracy towards the greater good. The unending election charade in Nigeria must end.

Make no mistake about this: A coalition of the major opposition parties offers the best chance to defeat Tinubu in a free and fair election. But the primary responsibility of such coalition should be to compel the president to ensure a level playing ground before any election. As an Igbo proverb tells us, it is naïve to be struggling for a mat without first securing the ground to lay the mat.

After all, where is the sense in going into an election where its outcome is already determined? For the masses’ sake, what is the essence of borrowing and squandering billions of dollars to conduct an election where its outcome is already known? What is the essence of spilling the blood of innocent citizens, which is common in Nigerian elections, where the outcome of such election is already known?

I sounded a similar warning before the 2023 election when I published: “How Buhari is already rigging the 2023 elections.” The outcome does not need to be retold here.

SKC Ogbonnia, a former APC Presidential Aspirant, writes from Houston, Texas, USA.