Super El Niño Disrupts Weather Worldwide, Threatens Food Prices and Harvests

From devastating droughts in South America to torrential rains across India and Nepal, the effects of this year’s exceptionally powerful El Niño are becoming increasingly evident worldwide.

The phenomenon poses serious risks to agricultural production, particularly rice and coffee, as the World Bank projects food prices could rise by 18 percent next year.

AFP examines how El Niño is unfolding across different parts of the world.

India Hit by Cyclone and Flooding

India’s southeastern coastline was battered by fierce winds and torrential rainfall following a cyclone’s landfall on Wednesday, leaving at least three people dead and prompting the evacuation of nearly 100,000 residents.

“Our homes get flooded, and we have to stay in the water,” said Rajeshwari, 65, who gave only one name, after arriving at a government-run shelter near Kakinada, close to the storm’s centre.

Cyclones are a recurring threat in the Bay of Bengal and northern Indian Ocean. They are known as hurricanes in the North Atlantic and typhoons in the Pacific.

This year, however, the storm season has been intensified by El Niño, which has contributed to unprecedented warming.

Cyclone Arnab later headed towards Nepal, where it brought heavy snowfall to high-altitude Himalayan areas and intense rainfall through Saturday.

Drought Crisis Forces Bolivia’s Emergency Declaration

Bolivia is facing severe drought conditions affecting 78,000 families in six of its nine departments, with more than 75,000 cattle lost, according to a government report this week.

President Rodrigo Paz declared a state of emergency on Saturday to make resources available for tackling the consequences of El Niño.

“This will be a phenomenon that will have very severe impacts in terms of drought and floods, and we need the cooperation of all institutions,” Paz said.

Elsewhere in South America, Peru has experienced rising temperatures and forest fires linked to El Niño, with the blazes already killing at least 12 people.

The weather phenomenon has also contributed to the spread of dengue fever.

In Chile, El Niño has been associated with record rainfall in Santiago, which recorded its wettest October ever.

Rising Death Toll and Food Costs

The World Bank forecasts an 18 percent increase in food prices between 2025 and 2027, attributing the expected rise to supply problems caused by conflicts and the anticipated effects of El Niño.

The University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab estimates that 484,500 excess heat-related deaths have occurred globally since June because of the phenomenon.

It further projects that around 373,000 additional deaths could be recorded within the next six months.

Rice, Coffee and Other Crops Face Growing Risks

Rice, coffee, cocoa and other agricultural commodities are facing mounting threats during the exceptionally strong El Niño year.

According to Maximo Torero, chief economist at the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the greatest concern lies with staple foods that supply most of the calories consumed in vulnerable countries.

“From a food-security perspective, the crops of greatest concern are staple foods because they provide the bulk of calories consumed by populations in vulnerable countries,” Torero told AFP.

Rice is especially exposed in Asian regions where El Niño reduces rainfall, potentially restricting planting activities and lowering harvest yields.

Corn and beans, major staples in Mexico, Central America and southern Africa, are also vulnerable to increased drought.

Sorghum and millet, which are essential in East Africa and typically withstand water shortages better, can still suffer when rainfall deficits persist for extended periods. Wheat production is similarly at risk from unpredictable precipitation, the FAO said.

Such agricultural disruptions could reduce food availability locally, raise domestic prices and trigger increases in international cereal prices. Countries dependent on imports could consequently face significantly higher food bills.

The FAO is also keeping a close watch on cocoa and coffee, which are grown primarily for export and are sensitive to rainfall extremes.

Excessive rain can encourage crop diseases, while insufficient rainfall can affect quality and production volumes.

A poor harvest could reduce farmers’ earnings and foreign currency revenues for producing countries, while contributing to higher global prices.

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