Killing El Mencho Did Not Kill CJNG -By Fransiscus Nanga Roka

The most recent US fight against the Jalisco New Generation Cartel could be the biggest in history. It is not then at a historically independent genius.

Who is involved? The next phase of CJNG’s leadership post-El Mencho is being targeted by the US Justice, State, Treasury and Homeland Security departments—and Santa María has provided information to both the DEA and FBI officials as well as Mexican authorities. Criminal charges and rewards of at least $100 million for eight senior figures have also been targeted. Juan Carlos Valencia González “Pelón” also has the highest offer weighing for his location on up to $25 million. But indictments are just accusations, not guilty verdicts; and reward notices are arrest warrants — not guilt certificates.

What happened? Following the killing in February 2026 of CJNG founder Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (aka “El Mencho”) by Mexican security forces, Washington ramped up indictments, financial sanctions, visa wavers and international fugitive bounties against CJNG members. It is an operation aimed to stop any remaining commanders of CJNG from being able to rebuild a higher-power, centralized organization. US authorities claim cartel-affiliated networks also traffic fentanyl, methamphetamine, cocaine and heroin; launder criminal proceeds; buy guns; and run timeshare-scam operations against US victims via bogus call centers, front companies and cryptocurrency domains. Those alleged fraud schemes are outlined in a federal indictment, but of course those sensational loss estimates aren’t facts as far as the court is concerned until there has been a trial.

When and where? In August 2026, the public crackdown escalated after El Mencho death. Its battlefield is not limited to Jalisco: US federal courts, Mexican ports and labs, international banking networks, digital-payment platforms and weapons pipelines crossing the US-Mexico border.

Why now? The U.S. is worried that CJNG’s struggle for succession will throw up something worse than the continuity: violent fragmentation. Among the reactions are road blocks, fires and assaults throughout Mexico in retaliation for the death of El Mencho reportedly carried out by the cartel. The United States thus seeks to snag potential successors before they consolidate power. (Associated Press)

How is pressure being applied? By indictments, by extradition requests, by intelligence sharing and asset freezes and travel bans and bounties. But it matters: the visa limits alleged 65 relatives and business associates, not OFAC asset freezes. If those measures are blurred they turn law enforcement into propaganda.

The fundamental issue is that Washington conflates decapitation with dismantlement. The death of a kingpin can break chains of command, which talks about a broken cartel but certainly not one that disappeared. They splinter, subcontract and fight. But any empty throne is an invitation to war. A hundred arrests that have echoes of glory can set in motion three rival ambitions to take their place.

Claus’ designation of CJNG as a terrorist organization could clear the way for powerful financial and investigative authorities. It can also transform a public-health and transnational-crime crisis, erode due-process protections and promote lethal acts whose civilian tolls mostly fly under the radar alongside their tactical achievements.

You need to make corrections five in a serious strategy.

So, first on your desk should be a permanent vetting process to run a US-Mexican investigative unit targeted at admissible evidence, extradition and prosecution rather than feather weighted intelligence raids. Secondly, targeting CJNG’s financial architecture — by using authenticated beneficial-ownership records, near-real-time transaction monitoring and recoverable restitution funds. Third, prevent the entry of precursors into Mexican ports and scrutinize U.S. guns heading south. Fourth, bolster security for judges or journalists (and other civil notables) subject to cartel retribution. Fifth, release outcome-based benchmarks: convictions, assets returned to victims, reductions in murders and overdoses, corruption cases prosecuted

Lets face it, this makes for a dramatic headline: A $100 million bounty campaign. It does not create security on its own. But unless both governments take down the markets, money, guns and government cover that supports CJNG, El Mencho’s death will not mean an end to the cartel’s reign—but just the first move in its next war.

Fransiscus Nanga Roka

Faculty of Law University 17 August 1945 Surabaya and Managing Partner Lw Firm Victorious Indonesia