Osun Election: Between Hope And Fear -By Abiodun KOMOLAFE

Hope springs eternal, and with elections just days away to determine the next governor of Osun State, we should strive to keep the hope alive. The saber-rattling, threats and counter-threats should stop because everyone in the state is a bonafide stakeholder. Whatever the outcome of the election, it is meant to prepare for the future.

For those who care to know, the future is important for, right now, Osun State – to be fair, like a lot of states – is socioeconomically wounded, and the task of finding its bearing is daunting. Like every other subnational, our dear state faces a demographic nightmare: there are simply too many young people to take care of, educate and prepare for a future of hope. The state therefore does not need violence.

Osun needs a visionary – a thinker-leader, gentle as a dove but wise as a serpent, not an autocrat drunk on power or privilege – with a plan to tackle the very troubling tasks ahead. For him, authority will be about service in love, and leadership as the sincere desire and commitment to seek the good of those entrusted to his care. For example, the state has to redefine the structure and texture of its education system so that pupils entering primary school in the next school year are prepared, some seventeen or so years down the road, to be competitive in a fast-changing international economy. This should begin with computer literacy, as is already the case in California and the Scandinavian countries, and perhaps China.

Again, a very critical issue here is to re-examine the cautionary note sounded by The Economist magazine that Africa is weighed down by an over-abundance of uncapitalized, stagnant micro-enterprises. Rather than an indictment, this rigorous analytical thinking must become the catalyst for Osun’s new economic policy, reshaping the wider Nigerian narrative as well.

I have argued repeatedly that no subnational can create hundreds of thousands of jobs without upscaling hundreds, eventually, thousands of its small businesses. For Osun, I hold firmly to this position. Coincidentally, this is the sort of framework developed in California starting from the 1950s under Governor Edmund G. “Pat” Brown, and it worked. Today, if it were an independent country, California, with its $4 trillion GDP, would be the world’s fourth-largest economy. This model should be studied in-depth, with the possibility of adaptation to Osun State.

The sentiment for slimming down and recalibrating the shape and size of the machinery of the government is perfectly understood. Nevertheless, there are exceptions to prove the rule. Therefore, it is advisable that the new government has a Commissioner for Small Businesses who will serve as a coordinator of the upscale businesses in the state. Properly handled, it should be the most important portfolio, apart from that of the governor and the Commissioner for Finance, in the next four to ten years.

Such a proposition will lead into gently formalizing large segments of the informal sector which will lead to modernized and better capitalized sustainable economic activity. It must be the number one priority, and they should also work with the South West Development Commission (SWDC).

The state should set up a N1 billion annual investment fund, seeking equity investments from private companies in Nigeria, sovereign wealth funds abroad, agencies such as the World Bank’s private sector arm, the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the African Finance Corporation (AFC), the Development Finance Corporation of the Netherlands (FMO), and similar bodies like that. The new government must go for broke in this area. The ripple effects will cut across all sectors, making the modernisation of agriculture feasible. This will transform subsistence agriculture into commercial agriculture, thereby achieving the objective of turning Osun into an export-oriented economy with all of its attendant benefits. The same goes for health, information technology, tourism, the hospitality sector and every other area.

The health sector must also be revamped to produce healthy minds in healthy bodies. This means that the fiscal framework must be adjusted to retain and attract medical professionals in the state. This is not going to be easy at all, for no state in Nigeria appears to have developed an appetite for paying attention to the massive increases in remuneration and conditions of service carried out recently by the British government under the then, now-departed British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. The award is certainly going to entice medical professionals from developing countries, including Nigeria. The incoming state government must therefore develop a counteractive strategy to retain medical professionals in the state, otherwise, a looming catastrophe in the health service sector is in the waiting.

That’s not all! Any serious economic blueprint must incorporate telemedicine to bridge the rural-urban divide. This in effect is the future even in the developed world. Mechanisms should be established to link Osun medical doctors abroad to work with their local counterparts via digital health platforms. To revamp education, health, agriculture and other areas concurrently, the incoming government must anchor its economic policy firmly on production.

It is not only disappointing but also disconcerting that, in the course of the present electioneering campaigns in Osun, we have not heard even a perfunctory attempt to examine why the Action Group, led by Chief Obafemi Awolowo, placed free education at the heart of its socioeconomic development paradigm. With federation allocations and internally generated revenue swelling, uncomfortable questions must be asked: Why is every contending camp fleeing from our ideological history and why should a serious administration abandon the sick to predatory healthcare costs? For God’s sake, who feeds the schoolchild if the government washes its hands? To put it bluntly, who did this to us that we have so completely amputated our politics from Awolowo’s progressive hue and reduced governance to a sterile scramble for power?

​The fear of insecurity also introduces a subtle tension on the road to August 15. Nigerians can only ask the security agencies to step up their game, particularly by deploying intelligence frameworks to preempt clear plans to disrupt the democratic process. There is little to gain from superficial peace pacts and appealing to rapacious disruptors hell-bent on decapitating the process. The security services have had months of notice, backed by a history of volatile events in the state, ensuring they are fully prepared. The key flashpoints – as everyone already knows – lie in logistics, particularly the back-and-forth movement of electoral materials. We trust that preventive mechanisms are fully in place, given the sufficient warnings issued.

The electorate must be reassured of their safety and protection because legitimacy derives its oxygen from high turnout at the polls. This is why organized democracies make apathy unattractive and guard fiercely against voter suppression. Unfortunately, such institutional safeguards remain a heavy luxury in Nigeria, a country constrained by resources in critical areas. It is costly enough already that ballot papers have to be reprinted because of a court judgment reinstating a previously omitted political party. This is going to be financially demanding, but it has to be done. Obedience to court judgments is the lifeblood of a democracy.

It is for this reason that so much hinges on this election. It is an opportunity to interrogate a daunting future strategically and with the utmost seriousness, as that future is almost here. Civil society and traditional rulers too have a vital role to play, because democracy thrives on the preservation of traditional cultural norms, sensible behaviour, and electoral vigilance. Intensive public enlightenment should be carried out using every imaginable medium. While low turnout may not legally invalidate an election under constitutional law, it severely traumatizes the electorate and delegitimizes the resulting government.

May the Lamb of God, who takes away the sin of the world, grant us peace in Nigeria!

Email: ijebujesa@yahoo.co.uk.

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